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Below the Quote on Gold and Crude 22nd Sept 2025 by Kaynat Chainwala, AVP Commodity Research, Kotak Securities

Spot gold staged an impressive rebound on Friday, closing near the session high at $3,685/oz and extending its gains for a fifth consecutive week as markets priced in the possibility of two more rate cuts this year. This followed a volatile week where gold initially retreated from a record high of $3,705.4/oz after Fed Chair Powell’s cautious comments tempered expectations for aggressive easing. Stronger-than-expected U.S. jobless claims and robust Philly Fed manufacturing data earlier in the week added pressure, pushing gold down to a one-week low of $3,630/oz as investors assessed the Fed’s outlook. The Fed’s forecast of only one rate cut in 2026 also highlighted the uncertainty surrounding the longer-term policy path. Today, spot gold surged further to a fresh all-time high of $3,711/oz as investors await remarks from several FOMC officials tonight and Fed Chair Powell’s key speech on Tuesday for additional policy guidance.

WTI crude fell to $62.6 per barrel on Friday, pressured by oversupply concerns and a stronger U.S. dollar. Oil prices slipped below $63/bbl after reports that Iraq has given preliminary approval to resume pipeline oil exports from its Kurdistan region through Turkey. Oil markets were already under pressure due to concerns over weak global fuel demand and geopolitical developments, including U.S. President Trump’s call for lower oil prices to increase pressure on Russia amid the ongoing war in Ukraine. Today, WTI crude edged back above $63 per barrel after three consecutive days of losses, supported by expectations of additional EU sanctions against Russia, escalating geopolitical tensions in Europe and the Middle East, and continued Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure. However, sharp upside may be capped as Iraq has been ramping up exports as it gradually unwinds voluntary production cuts under the OPEC+ agreement. As per Iraq’s state oil marketer SOMO, exports are expected to rise to between 3.4 and 3.45 million barrels per day in September after it averaged 3.38 million barrels per day in August.

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