Quote on Gold and Crude 16th October 2025 by Kaynat Chainwala, AVP Commodity Research, Kotak Securities
Below the Quote on Gold and Crude 16th October 2025 by Kaynat Chainwala, AVP Commodity Research, Kotak Securities
Spot Gold extended its rally for a fourth consecutive session on Wednesday, surging past $4,200/oz for the first time and hitting a record high of $4,218, driven by escalating U.S.–China trade tensions and rising geopolitical uncertainty. Concerns deepened after President Trump hinted at a partial decoupling from China, following China’s recent sanctions against five U.S. units of Hanwha Ocean Co., marking an escalation in tit-for-tat trade measures. Dovish remarks from Federal Reserve officials, including Chair Jerome Powell and Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren, further reinforced expectations of additional rate cuts amid growing stagflation risks. Today, gold extended its gains, trading above $4,230/oz amid ongoing trade tensions, an extending U.S. government shutdown, and expectations of two Fed rate cuts this year. Investors are now awaiting the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index and further remarks from FOMC officials for fresh economic signals.
WTI crude oil held near a five-month low on Wednesday amid ongoing US-China trade tensions and concerns about a potential supply glut in 2026. China sanctioned five US entities linked to Hanwha Ocean Co., one of South Korea’s largest shipbuilders, accusing them of supporting US government actions against China’s maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding sectors, which reignited worries about the US-China trade war. Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned of a possible 4 million bpd oil market glut next year, citing soaring supply and subdued demand. The IEA revised down its global oil demand growth forecast to 700,000 bpd for both 2025 and 2026, contrasting with OPEC’s more optimistic outlook of 1.3 million bpd growth in 2025 and 1.4 million bpd in 2026. Additionally, OPEC+ production increased for the second consecutive month in September, with output rising by 559,000 bpd, slightly above the 547,000 bpd increase in quotas. Prices found some support today, trading near $59/bbl, after Trump said Indian Prime Minister Modi pledged to stop buying Russian barrels, which could tighten supply since Russia accounts for about one-third of India’s oil imports in 2024-25, roughly 1.6 to 1.7 million bpd.
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Quote on?Gold and Crude by Kaynat Chainwala, AVP-Commodity Research, Kotak Securities
