COMEX Copper Stocks Surge, Surpass LME for First Time by Amit Gupta, Kedia Advisory
For the first time since March 2022, copper inventories in COMEX-registered warehouses have overtaken those on the London Metal Exchange (LME), driven by strong U.S. demand and a significant price premium. COMEX stocks have surged by 87% since February to 174,607 metric tons, while LME inventories declined 37% to 164,725 tons due to persistent outflows. This shift comes as the U.S. considers tariffs on copper imports to boost domestic production. The price spread between COMEX and LME copper currently sits at $683 per ton, having peaked at $1,572 in March. Even China is seeing falling copper stocks, signaling tight global supply.
Key Highlights
* COMEX copper inventories now exceed LME for the first time since 2022.
* COMEX stocks have surged 87% since February, reaching a 2018 high.
* LME warehouses see a 37% drop in copper inventories.
* U.S. price premiums hit $683/ton, peaking at $1,572 in March.
* China’s copper stocks fall 9% amid global supply tightness.
Copper prices and inventory levels are experiencing a notable shift, with COMEX-registered copper stocks surpassing those on the London Metal Exchange (LME) for the first time since March 2022. This reversal reflects strong U.S. demand and a growing divergence in regional prices. COMEX copper inventories have risen dramatically—up 87% since the end of February—reaching 174,607 metric tons, their highest level since 2018.
The surge in U.S. inventories is driven by a hefty price premium in the region. The COMEX copper price currently sits $683 per ton above the LME price, after reaching a record spread of $1,572 in March. This has incentivized traders to divert metal into the U.S. market to capitalize on the favorable arbitrage.
Conversely, the LME has seen significant outflows, with stockpiles declining by 37% to 164,725 tons. The market tightness is underscored by the ongoing premium in the LME cash-to-three-month spread, which points to immediate supply constraints.
Adding to the global reshuffling, China—the world’s top copper consumer—has also seen declining copper inventories. Stocks monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 9% this week to 98,671 tons, reflecting rising consumption and limited replenishment.
The geopolitical backdrop is also playing a role. In February, U.S. President Donald Trump ordered an investigation into copper tariffs to strengthen domestic supply for key industries like EVs and infrastructure. This policy move could further reinforce U.S. copper demand and support prices.
Finally,
Copper markets are tightening globally as U.S. demand and pricing outpace other regions. Policy shifts and inventory trends suggest continued volatility and opportunity for savvy traders.
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