U.S. Wheat Stocks Rise as Global Trade Slows by Amit Gupta, Kedia Advisory
The April 2024/25 wheat outlook reveals a mixed picture for U.S. and global markets. U.S. wheat supplies are up due to increased imports, the highest since 2017/18, while exports have been revised downward. Domestic use remains nearly unchanged, with minor cuts to seed use. Consequently, U.S. ending stocks are projected 22% higher year-over-year. The season-average farm price remains at $5.50 per bushel. Globally, wheat supplies and trade are both expected to decline, particularly due to lowered output from the EU and Saudi Arabia and reduced exports from Russia and Australia. Despite these drops, global ending stocks are slightly up but remain at their lowest level since 2015/16.
Key Highlights
# U.S. wheat imports hit highest level since 2017/18.
# Domestic use dips slightly, mainly from reduced seed demand.
# Exports fall by 15 million bushels, led by HRS and HRW.
# U.S. ending stocks jump 22% year-over-year to 846 million.
# Global exports decline 7%, while stocks remain lowest since 2015/16.
Wheat prices are showing relative stability in the U.S., with the 2024/25 season-average farm price unchanged at $5.50 per bushel. This price performance reflects a market supported by growing domestic supply but pressured by weakening export demand.
The uptick in supply is primarily driven by projected wheat imports reaching 150 million bushels, a 10-million-bushel increase from last month. This marks the highest import level since 2017/18, with gains across key classes like Hard Red Spring, Durum, White, and Hard Red Winter. Domestic use, however, is slightly reduced due to lower seed demand following insights from the March NASS Prospective Plantings report. Feed and residual use remains flat at 120 million bushels, with internal shifts among wheat classes based on the March Grain Stocks report.
Exports tell a different story. U.S. wheat exports are projected at 820 million bushels, down 15 million from last month, reflecting lowered forecasts for Hard Red Spring and Hard Red Winter wheat. The resulting surplus lifts projected ending stocks to 846 million bushels—22% above last year.
Globally, the outlook presents a tighter narrative. Total wheat supplies are down 0.8 million tons due to cuts in production estimates for Saudi Arabia and the EU, as well as lower beginning stocks in Uzbekistan and Israel. Global trade is also set to shrink by 1.3 million tons, with reduced exports from Russia, Australia, and the EU. Although ending stocks have ticked up slightly to 260.7 million tons, they remain 3% below last year—marking the lowest level since 2015/16.
Finally
Wheat markets face a supply-demand balancing act, with rising U.S. stocks offset by weakening global trade and tighter international supply dynamics.
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