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Below the Quote on Gold and Crude 10th Sept 2025 by Kaynat Chainwala, AVP Commodity Research, Kotak Securities

Spot gold closed flat on Wednesday, holding on to gains from the previous session, supported by a weaker dollar and safe-haven demand. Market concerns over the Federal Reserve’s independence intensified after President Trump called for the dismissal of Fed Governor Lisa Cook. Rising inflation expectations also underpinned bullion, with the U.S. 10-year breakeven inflation rate climbing to a six-month high of 2.46%. Additional support for gold came from escalating geopolitical tensions, including U.S. tariffs and ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. Investor interest remains strong, with gold ETF holdings at a two-year high. On the physical demand side, China’s gold appetite surged, with net imports via Hong Kong more than doubling in July to 43.9 tons, up from 19.3 tons in June. Today, gold prices are holding firm above $3,390/oz, with traders awaiting key U.S. economic data, including Q2 GDP, weekly jobless claims, and pending home sales, for further clues on the economic outlook and potential monetary policy direction.

WTI crude oil closed above $64/bbl on Wednesday as markets assessed growing U.S. pressure on India to cease Russian oil imports, a larger-than-expected drawdown in U.S. crude inventories, and intensifying attacks on energy infrastructure between Russia and Ukraine. In a sharp policy move, Washington doubled tariffs on select Indian imports to 50%, with White House trade adviser Peter Navarro accusing India of “giving Moscow the dollars it needs” to continue the Ukraine conflict. Also, EIA showed crude inventories fell by 2.4 million barrels for the week ending August 22. Gasoline and distillate stocks also declined by 1.2 million and 1.8 million barrels, respectively. On the geopolitical front, over 100,000 Ukrainian homes were left without power due to recent Russian drone strikes, while Ukrainian drone attacks have disrupted operations at key Russian oil refineries. WTI edged lower to $63.6/bbl today, weighed down by expectations of supply glut as the U.S. summer driving season winds down amid prospects of OPEC+ unwinding production cuts in the coming months. However, further downside may be limited as markets closely monitor whether India responds to the new U.S. tariffs and the potential for additional U.S. sanctions on Russia.

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