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Below the Quote on Gold and Crude 23rd Sept 2025 by Kaynat Chainwala, AVP Commodity Research, Kotak Securities

Spot gold surged to a fresh all-time high of $3,791 per ounce on Tuesday, driven by mounting expectations of more U.S. rate cuts in 2025 and news that China is positioning itself as a custodian of foreign sovereign gold reserves. While most Federal Reserve officials have emphasized the need for caution on inflation, markets largely ignored their remarks, focusing instead on upcoming Fed speeches, especially Chair Powell’s address later tonight, for policy guidance. The CME FedWatch tool now reflects strong market conviction, pricing in two 25-bps cuts in October and December with probabilities of 90% and 73%, respectively. Momentum was already building from Friday, when exchange-traded funds added 861,461 troy ounces of gold to holdings, the biggest one-day inflow since January 2022. SPDR Gold Trust reported a 0.60% increase in holdings to 1,000.57 tons, the highest level in over three years, reinforcing bullish sentiment. Meanwhile, safe-haven demand remains underpinned by geopolitical risks, as Russia’s capture of Kalynivske in Ukraine and repeated airspace incursions into NATO territory continue to unsettle markets.

WTI crude oil extended its losses to $61.6 per barrel on Monday amid renewed concerns of oversupply, following Iraq’s preliminary greenlight to resume pipeline exports from its Kurdistan region via Turkey, an export route halted since March 2023. Iraq has been gradually increasing shipments as it unwinds its voluntary output cuts under the OPEC+ deal. September exports are expected to reach between 3.4 and 3.45 million barrels per day, up from 3.38 million bpd in August. A weakening U.S. dollar helped WTI recover modestly, with prices settling above $62 per barrel by the end of the session. Earlier, crude had briefly touched $63 per barrel, supported by geopolitical jitters stemming from Russian military activity near Estonia and renewed Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy assets. Today oil rebounded to above $63 but prices may remain volatile as expectations of additional global supply continue to fuel market surplus concerns heading into Q4 2025 and 2026.