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Below the Quote on Gold and Crude 08th October 2025 by Kaynat Chainwala, AVP Commodity Research, Kotak Securities

Spot gold extended its record-breaking rally, reaching a fresh all-time high of $3,991.10 per ounce before settling near $3,984.90, up 0.6%, supported by rising uncertainty over a potential U.S. government shutdown and growing expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts. Gold’s strength was further bolstered by dovish monetary policy expectations, heightened geopolitical risks, robust central bank purchases, and record ETF inflows. According to the World Gold Council (WGC), global ETF inflows surged to $64 billion year-to-date, a dramatic reversal from outflows over the past four years. Gold-backed ETFs saw their largest monthly inflow in over three years in September, adding $17.3 billion, with strong momentum continuing into early October. Today, gold climbed above the key $4,000 per ounce for the first time, driven by safe-haven demand amid concerns about the U.S. economy and the government shutdown. Geopolitical tensions in Ukraine, political instability in France and Japan, and rising expectations of Fed rate cuts amid ongoing data blackout also supported upside.

WTI crude oil traded in a tight range yesterday before closing flat at $61.7 per barrel, as traders balanced concerns about a potential market surplus and weakening demand against ongoing supply-side risks. EIA revised its production outlook upward, now forecasting U.S. crude output to reach a record 13.53 million barrels per day this year, up from a prior estimate of 13.44 million barrels per day and expects crude oil inventories to continue rising throughout next year. Saudi Arabia kept the official selling price (OSP) of its flagship crude to Asia unchanged for November, contrary to expectations of an increase. Meanwhile, OPEC+ agreed to a modest production increase of 137,000 barrels per day for November, providing some underlying support to prices. Additionally, Ukraine has reportedly targeted at least 15 Russian refineries over the past two months, forcing a cutback in domestic refining and leading to a surge in Russian crude exports. Today, WTI crude climbed above $62 per barrel following a mixed API inventory report, which indicated stronger product demand despite rising crude inventories. U.S. crude stocks increased by 2.78 million barrels for the week ending October 3, while gasoline and distillate inventories fell by 1.2 million and 1.8 million barrels, respectively.