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Below the Quote on Gold and Crude 06th October 2025 by Kaynat Chainwala, AVP Commodity Research, Kotak Securities

Spot gold prices hit yet another record high of $3,890/oz on Friday as the continuation of the US government shutdown led to the non-release of the official jobs report. Still, investors are widely expecting a Fed rate cut later this month, with growing odds of another in December, amid signs of a cooling labor market. Markets have largely shrugged off caution signaled by some Fed officials. In addition, Washington’s decision to provide Ukraine with intelligence support for long-range missile operations against Russian infrastructure boosted safe haven bids. Today, spot gold extended gains and surged above $3,940/oz for the first time ever as the US government shutdown enters its sixth day, following the Senate's failure to pass funding bills on Friday. Upcoming speeches by Chair Powell and other FOMC members will be closely watched for potential policy cues amid the ongoing data blackout.

WTI crude oil prices attempted a recovery on Friday, climbing to $61.38/bbl after four consecutive sessions of declines, buoyed by a massive fire at Chevron's El Segundo refinery, the company's second largest in the US, with a capacity of 285,000 barrels per day. However, the rebound proved short-lived, with prices falling back to end the week below $61/bbl, marking a 7% weekly loss, the biggest in three months, amid reports that OPEC+ was considering accelerating the unwinding of its 1.66 million bpd production cuts in three monthly increments of 500,000 bpd starting in November. Today, oil prices surged above $62/bbl after OPEC+ agreed to a more modest increase of 137,000 bpd for November, easing concerns over a potentially larger supply hike and offering some relief to markets still wary of a looming supply glut.