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Below the Quote on Gold and Crude 30th Sept 2025 by Kaynat Chainwala, AVP Commodity Research, Kotak Securities

Spot gold surged past $3,800/oz for the first time on Monday fueled by a weaker dollar and expectations of further U.S. rate cuts. Gold hit a record high of $3,834.20 on massive ETF inflows and robust safe-haven demand amid the risk of a US government shutdown. Elsewhere, Bloomberg reported Switzerland has offered to invest in U.S. gold refining to push for a reduction of the 39% import tariff. Today, gold surged above $3,860 as markets turned jittery amid looming prospects of a U.S. government shutdown after talks between Trump and congressional leaders ended without agreement on short-term funding. This unsettled investors as it could delay the release of official jobs report and complicate the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory.

WTI crude oil slipped more than 3% on Monday and closed at $63.5/bbl, largely erasing gains made last week, hurt by renewed oversupply concerns amid growing bets that OPEC+ will approve another production increase of 137,000 bpd for November. Also, the restart of oil flows from Iraq’s Kurdistan region to Turkey may initially allow 180,000–190,000 bpd, thereby adding to global supplies. Oil prices had jumped 5% last week, buoyed by Russia’s ban on fuel exports until year-end, Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy facilities, and Trump urging both the EU and Turkey to curb Russian energy purchases. Today, oil prices extend losses to $62.7/bbl as markets assess glut concerns and the prospects of an end to hostilities in Gaza, following Trump’s unveiling of a 20-point peace plan.