OPEC Sees Global Oil Supply Balancing Demand in 2026 by Amit Gupta, Kedia Advisory
OPEC’s latest monthly report projects that global oil supply will match demand in 2026, signaling an end to earlier expectations of a deficit. The shift reflects higher output from the OPEC+ group—comprising OPEC, Russia, and allies—and increased production from other countries. The group plans to pause output hikes in early 2026 to prevent oversupply. OPEC maintained its forecast for global oil demand to rise by 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025 and slightly faster in 2026. The report also showed OPEC+ output at 43.02 million bpd in October, with the market expected to show only a marginal surplus next year.
Key highlights
* OPEC projects global oil supply to match demand in 2026.
* OPEC+ output stood at 43.02 million bpd in October.
* The group plans to pause production hikes in Q1 2026.
* Global oil demand expected to rise 1.3 million bpd in 2025.
* Forecast revised from a deficit to a marginal surplus outlook.
Global oil supply is expected to align with demand in 2026, marking a major shift from OPEC’s earlier projections of a deficit, according to the group’s latest monthly report. The revision reflects increased production from OPEC+ members—which include OPEC, Russia, and other allied producers—along with higher output from non-OPEC countries.
OPEC+ plans to pause production hikes in the first quarter of 2026, responding to growing concerns of potential oversupply following a steady rise in output this year. Despite this adjustment, OPEC maintained its forecast for global oil demand to grow by 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025 and at a slightly higher pace in 2026, supported by continued resilience in the global economy.
“The global economy has remained resilient through 2025, supported by easing trade uncertainty since the summer,” OPEC said. The group’s outlook remains more optimistic than that of the International Energy Agency (IEA), though the gap between their forecasts has narrowed considerably.
According to OPEC, OPEC+ output fell by 73,000 bpd in October to 43.02 million bpd, primarily due to reduced production in Kazakhstan. Based on OPEC’s projections, the expected demand for OPEC+ crude in 2026 is 43.0 million bpd, implying a marginal surplus of about 20,000 bpd if current production levels are maintained.
This represents a notable revision from OPEC’s September report, which anticipated a 700,000 bpd shortfall, and last month’s projection of a 50,000 bpd deficit. The updated forecast suggests a more balanced oil market outlook for 2026, easing concerns of tight supply while signaling cautious optimism for stable prices.
Finally, OPEC’s revised forecast points to a balanced oil market in 2026, with supply expected to meet demand amid resilient global growth and moderated production plans.
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