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Sep’25 – Ferrous prices dip MoM over monsoon weakness and inventory buildup

* Monthly average rebar (BF-route) prices declined INR1,000/t MoM to INR47,100/t in Sep’25. The dip was due to subdued infrastructure and construction activities, coupled with elevated inventories and the lull period during the festive season. Similarly, the monthly average HRC prices dipped INR550/t MoM to INR49,200/t amid sluggish demand and oversupply.

* According to the Joint Plant Committee (JPC), crude steel production declined slightly by 2% MoM (+15% YoY) to 13.8mt and finished steel production stood at 13.3mt (flat MoM and +15% YoY) in Sep’25.

* During Sep’25, steel imports in India remained subdued at 0.65mt (-3% MoM and -36% YoY), which led to a cumulative steel imports decline of 29% YoY in 1HFY26. This steel import curb was primarily driven by trade protection measures and stricter BIS regulations. Meanwhile, exports rose 11% MoM and 48% YoY to 0.58mt as exports to the EU increased to fulfill the quotas ahead of CBAM implementation in Jan’26.

* Channel checks indicated that the rebar prices have reached bottom, and post-monsoon recovery is likely amid an increase in infrastructure and construction activities. However, the inventory buildup at both the mills and channel levels will keep prices under pressure in Oct’25. The average Chinese flat steel prices for Sep’25 stood flat MoM at USD479/t, and currently, China’s landed steel prices into India are at a 15% premium to India’s domestic steel price.

* Prices for non-ferrous commodities increased MoM during Sep’25, whereas Copper, Aluminum, and Zinc prices were up by 3%, 2%, and 5% MoM to USD9,950/t, USD2,650/t and USD2,930/t, respectively. In contrast, Lead and Nickel prices remained flat MoM at USD1,950/t and INR15,100/t, respectively, during Sep’25, on account of higher inventory buildup.

* Alumina prices continued to shift downward to USD340/t (-9% MoM) amid factors like easing supply with shifts in the supply-demand landscape.

Sept’25 - Input costs continue to remain firm at the current level

* NMDC’s iron ore prices for lumps and fines remained flat MoM during Sep’25, due to subdued demand and limited material availability. In Oct’25, NMDC took INR650/t price cuts for both lumps and fines.

* Premium hard coking coal prices (CNF Paradip, India) remained rangebound at USD180-200/t, owing to weak demand globally. Average coking coal prices in Sep’25 stood at USD203/t and remained flat MoM.

* Domestic coal production declined 1% YoY to ~68mt and achieved ~92% of the monthly target. In contrast, Coal India’s production dipped 4% YoY to 49mt in Sep’25. Domestic coal dispatches were flat YoY at 74mt during the month. The dispatches to the power sector remained subdued, dipping 2% YoY to 59mt. This was broadly offset by increased dispatches to the nonpower sector (especially CPP and steel) by 7% YoY to 14.9mt in Sep’25.

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