Metals Monthly : Jan’26 – Ferrous recovered MoM; non-ferrous stayed resilient by Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd
* HRC monthly average prices surged INR4,600/t MoM to INR51,400/t, supported by definitive safeguard duty, higher raw material costs and lower imports. Monthly average rebar (BF-route) prices increased INR5,600/t MoM to INR53,500/t in Jan’26 amid strong domestic demand.
* We expect domestic steel prices to be elevated in Feb’26, driven by healthy demand and rising raw material costs. A recovery in construction and infra activity ahead of approaching project deadlines will support rebar prices.
* Additionally, given China’s HRC imports landed prices are 6% higher than domestic prices, this provides some price headroom to domestic mills during peak-season consumption from the Jan-Mar quarter. However, weak export prospects amid global trade barriers and weak global demand may limit any sharp price rise.
* According to the Joint Plant Committee (JPC), crude steel production rose 3% MoM (+5% YoY) to 14.1mt, and finished steel output stood at 13.1mt (flat MoM and +2% YoY) in Dec’25.
* During Apr-Dec’25, India’s steel imports fell by 40% YoY to 4.4mt, due to safeguard duty and anti-dumping duty on HRC from Vietnam and other trade control measures. Meanwhile, exports rose 34% YoY to 4.8mt in 9MFY26.
* In non-ferrous, copper/aluminum prices rose 9-10% MoM in Jan’26 to USD13,100/USD3,150 per ton. Zinc/lead prices rose 2-3% MoM to USD3,200/USD2,000 per ton.
* Nickel prices surged 18% MoM to USD17,500/t in Jan’26 after the recent announcement of Indonesian mining/production cuts in CY26. With a rise in nickel prices, stainless steel prices increased by 4% MoM to INR1,96,000/t (SS-304 CRC) in Jan’26.
Input costs (iron ore/coking coal) rise steadily
* Premium hard-coking coal (HCC) prices are rising steadily, primarily led by weather disruptions in Australia, renewed Chinese buying and stronger procurement by domestic mills. The average premium HCC prices (CNF Paradip, India) in Jan’26 stood at USD245/t, rising 8% MoM. Spot prices stand at USD261/t as of mid-Feb’26.
* NMDC prices largely remained unchanged for fines and lumps, while OMC iron ore prices increased by INR200/t in Jan’26. The price increase was mainly attributed to active trading by steelmakers, backed by strong offers from miners and higher auction bids.
* Domestic coal production was up by 3% YoY and 6% MoM at ~108mt, while Coal India production grew by 3% YoY to 79mt in Jan’26. Coal India dispatches declined 5% YoY to 66mt in Jan’25.
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