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Metal’s Outlook

Bullion Outlook

* Spot gold is expected to rise further towards $2485 level amid weakness in dollar and softening of US treasury yields. Dollar and Yields are moving south as slowing inflation and a cooling labor market have led financial markets to anticipate that the Federal Reserve will start its easing cycle in September. Investors anticipate 25 bps rate cut in September, followed by similar reductions in November and December, but 50bps cut cannot be ruled out. Additionally, market will keep an eye on crucial economic data like CPI, retail sales and jobless claims for more clues. Moreover, demand for safe haven may increase on escalating tension in Middle East and eastern Europe. Spot gold is expected to rise further towards $2485 level as long as its stays above $2438 level (10-Day EMA)

* MCX Gold Oct is expected to rise further towards 71,350 level as long as it stays above 70,300 level

* MCX Silver September is expected to rise further towards 82,500 level as long as it stays above 80,000 level

Base Metal Outlook

* Copper prices are expected to trade with negative bias amid lackluster demand from China and persistent rise in stockpiles at LME registered warehouses. Moreover, activity in manufacturing sector across major economies looks weak, signaling sluggish demand recovery for industrial metal. Additionally, China’s Yangshan premium, an indicator of import demand, stood at $57 per ton yesterday, premium retreated for a second day, after rebounding for four straight weeks. Furthermore, BHP Group resumed wage talks with union leaders in Chile in a bid to end a strike at the world’s biggest copper mine

* MCX Copper Aug is expected to slip back towards 772 level as long as it stays below 795 level. A break below 772 level prices may slip further towards 768 level

* Aluminum is expected move north towards 218.5 level (200-Day EMA) as long as it stays above 214 level (10-Day EMA)

Energy Outlook

* NYMEX Crude oil is expected to rise back towards $80 level on weakness in dollar and rise in risk appetite in the global markets as weaker than expected PPI data, reinforced market expectations that US Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates soon. Further, prices may rally on fear over supply disruption due to escalating tension in Middle East and eastern Europe. Moreover, prices may trade positive as API reported much larger than expected decline in crude oil stockpiles. Crude stocks shrunk by 5.21 million barrels in the week ended Aug. 9, Gasoline inventories eased by 3.69 million barrels, while distillates rose by 612,000 barrels. NYMEX Crude oil is likely to rise back towards $80 level as long as it trades above $77.4 level (20-Day EMA)

* MCX Crude oil Sep is likely to move north towards 6600 level as long as it stays above 6370 level (10-Day EMA)

* MCX Natural gas Aug is likely to slip towards 177 level (10-Day EMA) as long as it stays below 188 level.

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