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Gold

Gold prices settled higher by 0.38% at 134,130, supported by growing expectations of further U.S. monetary easing and sustained official sector demand. Recent signs of cooling in the U.S. labor market strengthened market conviction that the Federal Reserve could deliver two rate cuts in 2026. Weekly jobless claims for December 6 rose more than anticipated, marking their highest level in over two months. This followed the Fed’s third 25 bps rate cut this year and a less hawkish policy tone. Chair Jerome Powell indicated that further rate hikes are effectively off the table, prompting traders to price in more aggressive easing than reflected in the Fed’s own projections. Additionally, the Fed’s announcement to purchase around USD 40 billion in short-term Treasury bills is expected to cap short-term yields, lending further support to precious metals. Fundamental support remains strong as central banks continued to be net buyers of gold. China increased its gold reserves for the thirteenth consecutive month to 74.12 million troy ounces, while global central banks added a net 53 tonnes in October, the strongest monthly addition since November 2024. Gold ETFs also recorded their sixth straight month of inflows, with assets under management reaching a record USD 530 billion.  On the technical front, the market witnessed fresh buying interest, with open interest rising 0.48% to 13,711 alongside a price gain of Rs.508. Gold has immediate support at 133,305; a break below could drag prices toward 132,485. On the upside, resistance is seen at 135,220, and a sustained move above this level could open the door toward 136,315.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 132485-136315.

* Gold gains supported by expectations of more interest rate cuts next year after Fed pushed back against hawkish market bets.

* Jobless claims rose more than expected, reaching their highest level in over two months.

* Fed delivered its third 25 bps cut of the year and adopted a less hawkish tone than markets anticipated.

Silver

Silver prices surged sharply, settling up by 2.62% at 197,901, driven by tightening inventories, robust industrial demand, and silver’s recent inclusion on the U.S. critical minerals list. Demand momentum remains particularly strong from the solar, electric vehicle, and data center segments, reinforcing expectations of a structural supply deficit. Additional support came from strong ETF inflows and sustained retail buying, which coincided with tightening physical market conditions following the latest U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut. The Fed’s quarter-point reduction and a less hawkish policy stance further underpinned sentiment, with Chair Jerome Powell signaling that further rate hikes are unlikely and projecting limited easing over the next two years. Supply-side concerns continue to intensify. At the same time, silver mine production and recycling have remained largely flat for more than a decade, while industrial demand continues to surge. As a result, the global silver market is projected to record a fifth consecutive annual deficit, estimated at around 125 million ounces in 2025, pushing the cumulative shortfall since 2021 close to 800 million ounces. Chinese stockpiles have fallen to decade lows, with Shanghai-linked inventories declining sharply after record exports of over 660 tonnes in October. From a technical perspective, the market is under fresh buying, with open interest rising 0.97% to 11,090 alongside a Rs.5,050 price gain. Silver has support at 195,220; a break below could test 192,540. On the upside, resistance is seen at 200,040, and a sustained move above this level could propel prices toward 202,180.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 192540-202180.

* Silver climbed supported by tightening inventories, robust industrial demand, and the metal’s inclusion on the US critical minerals list.

* Demand has been particularly strong from the solar, electric vehicle, and data center sectors.

* Federal Reserve officials remain divided about future monetary policy meetings.

Crude oil

Crude oil prices declined by 1.64% to settle at 5,142, pressured by persistent concerns over global oversupply, even as geopolitical risks remain elevated. The market continues to track developments around renewed Ukraine peace negotiations after President Volodymyr Zelensky held talks with senior U.S. envoys aimed at ending the conflict with Russia. Despite diplomatic efforts, hostilities continue, with Ukrainian drone attacks targeting Russian oil depots and refineries, keeping supply risks in focus. Meanwhile, the U.S. stepped up pressure on Venezuela by seizing a tanker, imposing fresh sanctions, and expanding its military presence in the region. Iran also seized a foreign tanker in the Gulf of Oman, adding to regional tension. Fundamentally, the International Energy Agency reiterated its view of a record global supply glut, although it trimmed its 2026 surplus estimate to 3.84 million bpd from 4.09 million bpd previously, citing slightly stronger demand and lower supply growth. Global inventories have climbed to a four-year high, reinforcing downside pressure. In contrast, OPEC maintained a more balanced outlook, keeping its demand growth forecasts unchanged and highlighting steady global economic conditions. From a technical perspective, the market remains under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising sharply by 13.96% to 8,996 alongside a price decline of Rs.86. Crude oil has immediate support at 5,097; a break below this level could drag prices toward 5,052. On the upside, resistance is seen at 5,217, and a sustained move above could open the path toward 5,292.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5052-5292.

* Crude oil dropped amid persistent concerns about oversupply.

* IEA reaffirmed its forecast for a record supply glut, though slightly lower than last month’s estimate.

* Russia increased oil production in November, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak

Natural gas

Natural gas prices declined by 1.75% to settle at 369.9, as the market continued to factor in milder weather forecasts, softer near-term demand expectations, and near-record supply levels. Weather models indicate warmer-than-normal conditions across key consuming regions through December 26, significantly reducing heating demand. At the same time, production in the Lower 48 has climbed to around 109.7 bcfd so far in December, marginally above November’s record levels. Strong output has helped keep storage levels comfortable, with inventories standing roughly 3% above seasonal norms, limiting upside potential for prices. Despite the overall bearish tone, last week’s storage data highlighted the impact of a brief spell of extreme cold. U.S. energy firms withdrew a sizable 177 bcf from storage for the week ended December 5, marking the fourth consecutive week of withdrawals. Total inventories fell to 3,746 bcf, about 0.7% below last year’s level but still 2.8% above the five-year average. LNG-related demand remains a supportive factor, with feedgas flows rising to a new monthly high of 18.7 bcfd, reflecting strong export activity. Looking ahead, the U.S. Energy Information Administration expects both production and consumption to rise to record highs in 2025. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest declining by 0.72% to 19,553 alongside a price drop of Rs.6.6. Natural gas has support at 360.8; a break below this could expose the 351.7 level. On the upside, resistance is seen at 381.5, and a move above this zone could lead prices toward 393.1.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 351.7-393.1.

* Natural gas dropped as traders priced in milder weather, softer demand expectations, and near-record supply.

* Forecasts show warmer-than-normal conditions through Dec 26, curbing heating demand.

* Output in the Lower 48 climbed to 109.7 bcfd so far in December, edging above November’s record.

Copper

Copper prices advanced by 1.18% to settle at 1,109.7, supported by optimism around China’s commitment to a proactive fiscal policy next year and the U.S. Federal Reserve’s recent rate cut and balance sheet expansion. China’s official Xinhua news agency reported that policymakers will maintain fiscal stimulus in 2026, lifting sentiment toward base metals. However, gains were partially capped by profit booking after some Fed officials expressed caution over the pace of further rate cuts. On the supply side, inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses rose 0.5% week-on-week to 89,389 tonnes, while the share of China-origin copper in LME warehouses increased to 85% in November, reflecting strong export flows driven by favorable arbitrage. Chinese copper stocks on the LME climbed sharply to 130,225 tonnes, highlighting near-term supply availability in overseas markets. Fundamental indicators remain mixed. The International Copper Study Group reported a 51,000-tonne global refined copper deficit in September, compared with a surplus in August, underscoring a tightening balance. ANZ Research expects copper prices to remain above USD 11,000 per tonne in 2026 and potentially approach USD 12,000 by year-end, citing accelerating demand growth and supply constraints, including China’s planned 10% smelter output cuts in 2026. From a technical perspective, the market is under fresh buying, with open interest rising 2.44% to 7,526 alongside a price gain of Rs.12.9. Copper has support at 1,098.7; a break below this could test 1,087.6. On the upside, resistance is seen at 1,122.7, and a sustained move above this level could push prices toward 1,135.6.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1087.6-1135.6.

* Copper gains bolstered by China's promise of fiscal boost next year and the U.S. Fed’s interest rate cut.

* China's official Xinhua news agency reported pledges by Chinese leaders to maintain a "proactive" fiscal policy in 2026.

* China's consumer inflation accelerated to a 21-month peak in November, but factory-gate deflation persisted.

Zinc

Zinc prices declined sharply by 2.53% to settle at 308.7, pressured mainly by weak macro signals from China. China’s factory output growth slowed to a 15-month low in November, while new home prices continued to fall, reinforcing concerns over the property sector. Sentiment was further dented after property developer Vanke sought renewed bondholder support for onshore debt repayments. On the supply side, LME data showed zinc inventories rising to 61,925 tonnes, the highest level since August, while registered LME stocks surged nearly 60% since the start of November to 54,325 tonnes, easing near-term supply concerns and weighing on prices. However, fundamentals remain mixed. The ILZSG reported that the global zinc market surplus narrowed to 20,300 tonnes in September from 32,700 tonnes in August, although the first nine months of 2025 still show a surplus of 120,000 tonnes. Support also came from softer U.S. economic data, which strengthened expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, and improving business activity in the euro zone, which expanded at its fastest pace in over two years. In China, several zinc mines are scheduled for maintenance shutdowns in December, likely reducing zinc concentrate output, while SHFE zinc inventories fell 12.3% week-on-week. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest declining by 6.89% to 2,772 alongside a price drop of Rs.8. Zinc has immediate support at 304.1; a break below this could lead to a test of 299.6. On the upside, resistance is seen at 316.4, and a sustained move above this level could push prices toward 324.2.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 299.6-324.2.

* Zinc dropped as China’s factory output growth slowed to a 15-month low in November.

* LME data showed inflows into zinc stocks highest since August.

* Global zinc market surplus declined to 20,300 metric tons in September from 32,700 tons in August.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices edged higher by 0.43% to settle at 280.1, supported by improving demand prospects and persistent concerns over tight global supply. Sentiment was aided by expectations of fresh stimulus from Beijing aimed at stabilizing the property sector, which could lift demand for industrial metals. However, upside remained limited as investors digested recent Federal Reserve commentary and reassessed the U.S. interest rate outlook for 2026. Demand concerns in China, the world’s largest consumer, also capped gains, although downside was contained by supply-side constraints. On the supply front, China is approaching its government-imposed annual production cap of 45 million tonnes, leaving little room for further output growth. Expansion plans for new smelters in Indonesia continue to face delays due to elevated energy costs and regulatory hurdles. Supply pressures were further compounded by operational disruptions, including the suspension of a potline at Iceland’s Grundartangi smelter. Reflecting tight availability, global aluminium producers sought sharply higher premiums of USD 190–203 per tonne from Japanese buyers for January–March shipments, up more than 120% from the current quarter. Inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses also declined by 2.5% week-on-week. From a technical perspective, the market is under fresh buying, with open interest inching up 0.1% to 2,917 alongside a price gain of Rs.1.2. Aluminium has support at 278.7; a break below this could test 277.2. On the upside, resistance is seen at 281.7, and a sustained move above this level could push prices toward 283.2.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 277.2-283.2.

* Aluminium gains supported by improving demand prospects and tight global supply.

* However upside seen limited as investors digested Federal Reserve comments and reassessed the 2026 rate outlook.

* Inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange dropped 2.5% from last Friday.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices settled lower by 1.04% at 16,162, pressured by expectations of higher acreage following favourable rainfall during the ongoing sowing season. Preliminary estimates suggest turmeric acreage could rise by 15–20% as farmers shift from less profitable crops, with the area under turmeric for the 2024–25 season already reported at 3.30 lakh hectares, about 10% higher than the previous year. However, the downside remained limited due to tight physical availability and strong demand conditions. Arrivals continue to stay below normal, while both farmers and stockists are reported to have significantly reduced their inventories, providing a strong base ahead of the new crop. Crop conditions have been adversely affected in key producing states such as Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, and parts of Tamil Nadu due to excessive rainfall, waterlogging, and emerging disease issues. Market estimates indicate 15–20% crop damage in major growing regions, which could impact yield quality and output. Arrivals are expected to be delayed until February–March, while IPM and EU/US-compliant material is likely to be available only after May 2026. Carry-forward stocks remain at record-low levels compared to historical averages, continuing to support prices. Export demand remains robust, particularly from Europe and the US. Turmeric exports during April–September 2025 rose 4.02% year-on-year, although September shipments dipped slightly on a monthly basis. Technically, the market is under fresh selling, with open interest rising 2.69% to 12,045 as prices fell Rs.170. Turmeric has support at 15,878, with a break below opening a test of 15,594. Resistance is seen at 16,518, and a move above could push prices toward 16,874.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 15594-16874.

* Turmeric dropped amid increase in acreage due to favourable rains during the current sowing season.

* However downside seen limited as arrivals remain below normal and good domestic and International demand.

* It is reported that both farmers and stockists have significantly reduced their stocks.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 15443.15 Rupees gained by 1.09 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices settled lower by 1.23% at 20,855, pressured by comfortable supplies and subdued export interest amid adequate existing stocks. Market sentiment remained cautious as overseas demand continued to be largely price-sensitive, with current export requirements being met from available inventories. Exports during April–September 2025 declined sharply by 14.51% year-on-year, highlighting weak external demand despite some improvement in September shipments on both monthly and annual comparisons. However, the downside in prices was limited by weather-related concerns and delayed sowing in key producing regions. As of December 15, jeera sowing in Gujarat stood at 3.24 lakh hectares, down nearly 14% compared with last year, reflecting uneven rainfall and unprepared fields. Gujarat is witnessing one of the slowest sowing seasons in recent years, adding uncertainty to production prospects. Arrivals at the Unjha market remained very low, with good-quality cumin attracting premium prices. Logistical and weather challenges across India and the Middle East have also kept near-term supplies tight, providing some price support. On the supply front, farmers are estimated to be holding around 20 lakh bags of cumin, with only 3–4 lakh bags likely to be traded before season end, leaving sizeable carry-forward stocks. While production this season is expected to be lower at around 90–92 lakh bags versus 1.10 crore bags last year due to reduced sowing, weak overseas demand continues to cap upside. Support was also seen from the GST Council’s decision to lower GST to 5%, which may aid FMCG exports and domestic demand. Technically, the market is under fresh selling, with open interest rising 5.4% to 3,279 as prices fell Rs.260. Jeera has support at 20,710, with a break below opening a test of 20,560. Resistance is seen at 21,100, and a move above could push prices toward 21,340.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 20560-21340.

* Jeera dropped due to comfortable supplies and tepid export interest amid adequate existing stocks.

* However downside seen limited as weather issues and delayed sowing are keeping cumin prices strong.

* As on 15 December 2025, in Gujarat, Jeera sowing seen at 324,390 hectares down by 13.95% compared to last years 376,956 hectares.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 20862.65 Rupees dropped by -0.11 percent.

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