Aluminium trading range for the day is 281.8-288.2 - Kedia Advisory
Gold
Gold prices advanced further, settling up 0.83% at 137,885 after scaling a fresh all-time high, supported by expectations of easier US monetary policy and heightened geopolitical risks. Market confidence has strengthened around the Federal Reserve delivering two 25-basis-point rate cuts next year as inflation moderates and labor market conditions soften, with attention now shifting to the second estimate of US third-quarter GDP for additional policy cues. Safe-haven demand was reinforced by escalating tensions involving the US and Venezuela, alongside renewed disruptions linked to the Russia–Ukraine conflict. Strong central bank accumulation and steady ETF inflows continue to underpin the rally, with gold now up nearly 70% year-to-date, marking its strongest annual performance since 1979. The People’s Bank of China extended its buying streak to thirteen consecutive months, while global central banks added a net 53 tonnes in October. Physically backed gold ETFs recorded a sixth straight month of inflows in November, lifting total assets under management to a record US$530 billion. However, elevated prices have dampened physical demand in Asia, with discounts widening sharply in India and China despite the peak wedding season. From a technical standpoint, the market is under fresh buying, with open interest rising 1.42% to 15,097 as prices gained 1,141. Gold has immediate support at 136,855, with a break below exposing 135,830. Resistance is placed at 138,700, and a sustained move above could open the way toward 139,520.
Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 135830-139520.
* Gold hits fresh record on Fed cuts, geopolitical risks
* Markets price two Fed rate cuts next year amid easing inflation
* Cooling US labor market strengthens expectations of looser monetary policy
Silver
Silver prices surged sharply, settling higher by 3.19% at 219,653, as escalating geopolitical risks and supportive monetary policy expectations triggered strong buying interest. Uncertainty surrounding US enforcement actions against Venezuelan oil tankers and operational disruptions at PDVSA following a cyberattack enhanced silver’s safe-haven appeal. The metal has now gained over 140% year-to-date, underpinned by robust industrial demand, sustained investment inflows, and tightening global inventories. Market expectations remain anchored around two US Federal Reserve rate cuts next year, with Fed officials reiterating scope for policy easing amid moderating inflation and a softer labor market. Structural fundamentals continue to support prices, with silver mine production and recycling remaining largely flat for over a decade while industrial demand from solar, electric vehicles, and data centers accelerates. The resulting supply deficit is projected to reach a fifth consecutive year in 2025, with an estimated shortfall of around 125 million ounces. Tight physical conditions are evident in elevated lease rates and borrowing costs in London, signaling genuine delivery stress. Chinese silver stockpiles have fallen to decade lows following record exports, while the announcement of stricter export controls from 2026 has spurred pre-emptive buying. From a technical perspective, the market witnessed short covering, with open interest declining 4.2% to 12,177 as prices jumped 6,781. Silver has support at 215,380, with a break lower exposing 211,105. Resistance is seen at 222,210, and a move above could push prices toward 224,765.
Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 211105-224765.
* Silver surged to a new all-time high as Fed officials signal room for policy easing next year
* Geopolitical tensions boost demand for safe-haven precious metals
* Venezuelan tanker actions and PDVSA issues heighten market uncertainty
Crude oil
Crude oil prices edged higher, settling up 0.59% at 5,254, as geopolitical supply risks offset concerns over ample global supply. Potential sales of Venezuelan crude seized by the US were balanced by heightened disruption fears following Ukrainian attacks on Russian vessels and port infrastructure. Market sentiment also reflected comments from US President Donald Trump that Washington could retain or sell seized Venezuelan oil as part of stricter enforcement actions. Despite these risks, broader fundamentals continue to point toward comfortable supply conditions in the medium term. Supply-side data remain mixed. The US Energy Information Administration raised its 2025 crude production forecast to a record 13.61 million barrels per day, reinforcing expectations of a supply overhang, although it trimmed its 2026 output outlook to 13.53 million bpd. The International Energy Agency revised down its projected 2026 surplus to 3.84 million bpd after lifting demand growth forecasts and trimming supply growth estimates, citing a firmer macroeconomic outlook and sanctions-related export constraints. Meanwhile, OPEC+ output increased marginally in November to 43.06 million bpd, while demand for OPEC+ crude is seen averaging 43 million bpd in 2026. From a technical perspective, the market witnessed short covering, with open interest declining 6.44% to 18,708 as prices rose 31. Crude oil has support at 5,223, with a break lower exposing 5,192. Resistance is placed at 5,273, and a move above could test 5,292.
Trading Ideas:
* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5192-5292.
* Crude oil gains as potential sales of Venezuelan crude seized by US were countered by heightened supply disruption fears.
* U.S. might keep or sell seized Venezuelan oil, says President Trump
* Barclays expects oil surplus to shrink next year if Venezuelan exports fall
Natural gas
Natural gas prices surged sharply, settling up 8.43% at 380.8, driven by record feedgas flows to U.S. LNG export terminals and stronger near-term demand expectations. Average gas flows to the eight major LNG export plants have risen to 18.5 bcfd so far this month, exceeding November’s record of 18.2 bcfd. On a daily basis, LNG feedgas was on track to climb further to 18.6 bcfd, supported by higher utilization at Cameron LNG, Freeport LNG and Venture Global’s Calcasieu facility. LSEG estimates total U.S. gas demand, including exports, will rise from 127.9 bcfd this week to 136.0 bcfd over the next two weeks, underpinning bullish sentiment despite forecasts for mostly warmer-than-normal weather through January 7. Storage data also lent support, with U.S. utilities withdrawing 167 bcf during the week ended December 12, taking inventories to 3,579 bcf. Stocks now stand 1.7% below last year’s levels, though still 0.9% above the five-year average. Looking ahead, the EIA expects both production and demand to reach record highs in 2025, with dry gas output projected at 107.7 bcfd and consumption at 91.8 bcfd. On the technical front, the market is witnessing fresh buying, with open interest rising 10.23% to 13,095 alongside a 29.6 price gain. Natural gas has support at 362.4, below which 343.9 may be tested, while resistance stands at 391.1 and 401.3.
Trading Ideas:
* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 343.9-401.3.
* Natural gas rose boosted by record gas flows to liquefied natural gas export plants and forecasts for more demand.
* Average gas flows to the eight large U.S. liquefied natural gas export plants have risen to 18.5 bcfd so far this month.
* LSEG projected average gas demand in the lower 48 states, would rise from 127.9 bcfd this week to 136.0 bcfd over the next two weeks.
Copper
Copper prices settled higher by 1.62% at 1,139.85, supported by growing concerns over future supply tightness despite an overall global surplus. Sentiment improved after Chilean miner Antofagasta and a Chinese smelter agreed on zero processing fees for 2026 copper concentrate, highlighting pressure in the concentrate market. Physical market indicators also strengthened, with the Yangshan premium jumping 15% to a three-month high of USD 55 per tonne, reflecting tighter availability. Although the International Copper Study Group reported a refined copper surplus of around 122,000 tonnes for the first ten months of 2025, demand conditions remain firm, with apparent usage rising 5.5%. Trade flows continue to distort regional balances. Refined copper shipments into the United States have surged on expectations of potential U.S. import tariffs from 2027, tightening supply in traditional consuming regions. Exports from China climbed to their second-highest monthly level on record in November, with over one-third destined for the U.S., even as China’s overall copper imports fell 2.51% month-on-month due to elevated prices. Meanwhile, China’s major smelters have agreed to cut output by 10% in 2026, reinforcing expectations of tighter refined copper supply next year. On the technical front, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest dropping 25.59% to 4,346 alongside an 18.2 price rise. Copper finds support at 1,125.1, with further downside at 1,110.2, while resistance is seen at 1,150.8 and 1,161.6.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 1110.2-1161.6.
* Copper gains after Chilean miner Antofagasta and a Chinese smelter agreed on a zero processing fee for 2026 copper concentrate.
* The Yangshan premium, rose 15% to a three-month high of $55 a ton.
* The ICSG estimates that the market had a surplus of 122,000 tons for the first 10 months of the year.
Zinc
Zinc prices edged higher, settling up 0.66% at 304.75, supported by thin year-end trade, a weaker dollar and renewed speculative interest amid concerns over tighter near-term supply. Supply-side developments in China lent some support, as a zinc mine in Central China is set to undergo routine maintenance, reducing effective production days, while another mine in Southwest China has largely completed its annual target and is scheduled for a December shutdown. This is expected to cut zinc concentrate output by around 700 tonnes in metal content. In addition, zinc inventories tracked by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 5.7% from last week, highlighting tightening spot availability. However, upside momentum remains capped by mixed fundamental signals from China. The National Bureau of Statistics reported that China’s zinc output rose 13.3% year-on-year in November to 654,000 tonnes, underscoring ample refined supply. At the same time, demand concerns resurfaced as China’s factory output and retail sales growth slowed further, alongside worsening property investment and property sales by floor area. On the global front, ILZSG data showed the zinc market deficit narrowed to 600 tonnes in October, while the refined zinc market posted a surplus of 76,000 tonnes in the first ten months of 2025. Global refined zinc production is projected to rise 2.7% in 2025. Technically, the market is under short covering, with open interest falling 20.11% to 1,494 while prices gained 2. Zinc has support at 301.7, with further downside at 298.7, while resistance is seen at 308.6 and 312.5.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 298.7-312.5.
* Zinc prices rose as thin year-end trade extended momentum for speculative buying on a weaker dollar and worries about tighter supply.
* Zinc mine in Central China is planning a routine maintenance shutdown, resulting in fewer production days.
* However, upside seen limited as China’s zinc output in November rose 13.3 percent year-on-year to 654,000 metric tons.
Aluminium
Aluminium prices ended marginally lower, settling down 0.04% at 284.4, as markets pared earlier gains on profit booking after recent supply-led optimism. Prices had firmed following South32’s announcement that its Mozal smelter in Mozambique will be placed under care and maintenance by March 2026 due to the lack of a new power agreement, a move expected to tighten global aluminium supplies next year. Supply concerns were further amplified by disruptions at Iceland’s Grundartangi smelter, where one potline was suspended due to equipment failure. Support also came from falling inventories at major Japanese ports, which declined 5.2% month-on-month to 312,100 tonnes by end-November, alongside producers seeking sharply higher premiums for January–March shipments. Fundamental support remains underpinned by expectations that China, the world’s largest producer, is nearing its annual output cap of 45 million tonnes. Global primary aluminium output rose 0.5% year-on-year to 6.086 million tonnes in November, according to IAI data. However, upside was capped by renewed demand concerns from China, where weak macro data continued to weigh on sentiment. China’s imports of unwrought aluminium and products fell 14% year-on-year in November, although cumulative imports for January–November were up 4.4%. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest down 22.63% to 1,210 as prices slipped marginally. Aluminium finds support at 283.1, below which 281.8 could be tested. Resistance is seen at 286.3, with further upside at 288.2.
Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 281.8-288.2.
* Aluminium pared gains on profit booking after prices rose after Mozal smelter in Mozambique will be placed under care.
* Declining inventories at major Japanese ports, which fell 5.2% month-on-month to 312,100 metric tons by the end of November.
* Global primary aluminium output in November rose 0.5% year on year to 6.086 million tonnes – IAI
Turmeric
Turmeric prices strengthened sharply, settling up by 3.63% at 16,804, supported by below-normal arrivals and sustained domestic as well as international demand. Market sentiment has improved as both farmers and stockists have significantly reduced holdings, creating a firm base ahead of the arrival of the new crop. Despite expectations of higher acreage supported by favourable rains, supply growth is likely to remain moderate due to weather-related disruptions and localized disease pressure. Unseasonal heavy rainfall during August–September caused waterlogging and disease issues in nearly 15% of the crop area in parts of Marathwada, resulting in yield losses of 15–20% in affected pockets. For the 2025–26 season, turmeric acreage is estimated at 3.02 lakh hectares, up around 4% year-on-year, with fresh production projected at 11.41 lakh tonnes. Dried turmeric output at the all-India level is estimated at 90 lakh bags compared with 82.5 lakh bags last season, though lower carry-forward stocks will limit the overall rise in availability. Maharashtra’s dried production is expected to increase to 54 lakh bags, while other producing states may contribute about 40 lakh bags. Export prospects remain supportive, with shipments during April–October 2025 rising 2.05% year-on-year, even as October exports declined on a monthly and annual basis. Technically, the market is under fresh buying, with open interest rising 0.51% to 13,830 alongside a 588 price gain. Support is seen at 16,348, below which 15,892 may be tested, while resistance stands at 17,062, with further upside towards 17,320.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 15892-17320.
* Turmeric gains as arrivals remain below normal and good domestic and international demand.
* It is reported that both farmers and stockists have significantly reduced their stocks
* However upside seen limited amid increase in acreage due to favourable rains during the current sowing season.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 15641.2 Rupees dropped by -0.01 percent.
Jeera
Jeera prices corrected modestly, settling lower by 1.16% at 21,820, weighed down by comfortable supplies and muted export demand amid adequate existing stocks. The decline, however, remained limited as adverse weather conditions and delayed sowing continue to provide underlying support to prices. As of 15 December 2025, jeera sowing in Gujarat stood at 3.24 lakh hectares, down sharply by 13.95% from last year’s 3.77 lakh hectares, marking one of the slowest sowing seasons in recent years due to uneven rainfall and unprepared fields. At the Unjha spot market, arrivals remain very low, with superior quality cumin still commanding premium prices. Export demand from Gulf countries and China has shown marginal improvement but remains highly price-sensitive. Traders noted that the conclusion of the retail season and continued inactivity from overseas buyers capped upside potential, with current export commitments largely being met from existing stocks. Farmers are estimated to be holding nearly 20 lakh bags, of which only 3–4 lakh bags may be traded by season-end, leaving sizeable carry-forward stocks. Production for the current season is estimated at 90–92 lakh bags versus 1.10 crore bags last year, reflecting reduced sowing. Export data further highlights weak demand, with April–October 2025 shipments down 13.21% year-on-year. Technically, the market is under fresh selling, with open interest rising 0.45% to 4,035 while prices fell 255. Support is seen at 21,590, below which 21,360 could be tested, while resistance stands at 22,160, with further upside towards 22,500.
Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 21360-22500.
* Jeera dropped due to comfortable supplies and tepid export interest amid adequate existing stocks.
* However downside seen limited as weather issues and delayed sowing are keeping cumin prices strong.
* In Gujarat, Jeera sowing seen at 324,390 hectares down by 13.95% compared to last years 376,956 hectares.
* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 21246.4 Rupees dropped by -0.83 percent.
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