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Gold

Gold prices surged sharply, settling 1.69% higher at 103824, supported by the rupee’s drop to an all-time low and strong safe-haven demand amid uncertainty over U.S. monetary policy. Investors increased allocations to bullion after concerns that political pressure on the U.S. Federal Reserve could hasten interest rate cuts, with markets now widely anticipating a 25 bps reduction in September. Fed Governor Christopher Waller’s remarks signaling support for cuts further strengthened the outlook. On the trade front, Swiss gold exports remained steady in July, with shipments to the U.S. jumping to 51 metric tons—the highest since March—while exports to India climbed to 13 tons, reinforcing seasonal demand ahead of the festive period. Deliveries to the UK and China, however, fell significantly. In India, jewellers restocked as festive demand approaches, with dealers charging premiums of up to $4/oz. In China, physical gold was sold at par to a $5 premium, while Hong Kong and Singapore dealers reported premiums of $2.5/oz. Globally, the World Gold Council (WGC) reported a 3% YoY rise in demand in Q2 2025 to 1,248.8 tons, driven by a 78% surge in investment demand and strong inflows into ETFs, though jewellery demand dropped 14% due to record-high prices. Technically, the market is under fresh buying, with open interest rising 5.58% to 16,774. Gold has immediate support at 102570, with further downside possible to 101310, while resistance is seen at 104590, and a breakout could push prices toward 105350.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 101310-105350.

* Gold surged to 1,04,000, supported by rupee weakness to all time low and safe-haven demand.

* Political pressure on Fed fuels expectations of accelerated interest rate cuts.

* Markets widely pricing a 25 bps rate reduction in September meeting.

Silver

Silver prices surged by 2.72% to 121,873 in the previous session, supported by the sharp fall in the Rupee to record lows and heightened expectations of imminent US Federal Reserve rate cuts. Fed Governor Christopher Waller’s dovish remarks reinforced market conviction of a 25 bps rate cut in September, with another reduction expected by year-end, which further boosted safe-haven and investment demand for silver. Additionally, US macro data painted a picture of resilience, with personal spending rising 0.5% in July, the strongest gain in four months, while wholesale inventories increased 0.2%, both in line with expectations. On the industrial demand side, silver drew strong support from China’s booming photovoltaic sector, where solar cell exports rose more than 70% in H1 2025, underpinned by robust demand from India. Global silver-backed ETPs also witnessed net inflows of 95 Moz in H1 2025, pushing holdings to 1.13 Boz, just below 2021 peak levels. This underscores investor confidence in silver’s long-term fundamentals. Retail investment demand remained strong, particularly in India (+7% YoY) and Europe, although jewelry demand is projected to decline by 6% this year due to elevated domestic prices. Technically, the market is under fresh buying momentum, with open interest rising 19.54% to 20,202 lots. Prices gained 3,229, with key support at 119,250, below which levels of 116,630 may be tested. On the upside, resistance is seen at 123,500, and a decisive break could open the way towards 125,130.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 116630-125130.

* Silver rallied to all time high as support seen after Rupee dropped to all time low and bets of Fed rate cuts.

* Personal spending in the United States increased by 0.5% from the previous month to $20.802 trillion in July of 2025.

* Chinese solar cell exports surged more than 70% in the first half of the year, driven by robust demand from India.

Crude oil

Crude oil prices edged higher by 0.62% to settle at 5654, supported by weakness in the Rupee and ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly between Russia and Ukraine, which continue to weigh on supply security. The upside was limited, however, as OPEC+ output increased to regain market share, expanding supply and tempering bullish momentum. Restart of Russian crude flows to Hungary and Slovakia through the Druzhba pipeline further added to supply availability, though rising cross-border energy infrastructure attacks sustained some support for prices. On the demand side, concerns over lower U.S. fuel consumption with the end of the summer travel season capped further gains. Meanwhile, U.S. crude inventories fell more than expected by 2.392 million barrels to 418.3 million, while stocks at Cushing dropped by 838,000 barrels. Gasoline and distillate inventories also declined, though gasoline stock draws were smaller than anticipated. On the broader outlook, OPEC raised its forecast for 2026 global oil demand by 1.38 million bpd, while trimming its supply growth estimate from non-OPEC producers, signaling a tighter market outlook in the medium term. From a technical perspective, crude oil witnessed short covering with open interest dropping by -2.42% to settle at 11,501, while prices rose 35 points. Immediate support is placed at 5622, with a break below exposing 5589 levels, while resistance is seen at 5693, and a sustained move above could lead prices toward 5731, indicating a cautiously bullish near-term outlook.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5589-5731.

* Crude oil rose as Rupee weakness and Ukraine conflict supported prices.

* OPEC+ accelerated output hikes, raising supply outlook and capping upside.

* US fuel demand expected lower as summer travel season winds down.

Natural gas

Natural gas prices settled 0.99% higher at 264, supported by a smaller-than-expected U.S. storage build and steady demand from the liquefied natural gas (LNG) sector. U.S. energy firms injected 18 bcf into storage during the week ended August 22, significantly below market expectations of 26 bcf, leaving inventories around 5% above the five-year average. Strong LNG export demand also underpinned prices, with flows to U.S. export facilities rising to 15.9 bcfd so far in August, compared with 15.6 bcfd in July, though still slightly below the April record of 16.0 bcfd. However, total U.S. gas demand is expected to ease from 111.1 bcfd this week to about 104.3 bcfd by mid-September as seasonal consumption tapers. Supply remains robust, with output averaging 108.5 bcfd in August, above July’s record of 107.8 bcfd, keeping overall balances comfortable despite demand growth. In the longer-term outlook, the EIA projected U.S. dry gas production to rise to a record 106.4 bcfd in 2025 before easing to 106.1 bcfd in 2026. From a technical standpoint, the market witnessed short covering, with open interest falling -8.83% to 24,869 while prices gained 2.6 points. Immediate support is placed at 260, with further downside risk toward 256, while resistance is seen at 266.4, and a break above could push prices toward 268.8.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 256-268.8.

* Natural gas gained amid a smaller-than-expected storage build and on strong LNG exports.

* Flows to US LNG export plants rise to 15.9 bcfd so far in August, up from 15.6 bcfd in July.

* Overall gas demand in the Lower 48 is expected to ease from 111.1 bcfd to around 104.3 bcfd by mid-September.

Copper

Copper prices gained 1.03% to settle at 900.45, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September, boosting the outlook for industrial demand. On the supply side, Chile, the world’s largest producer, reported a marginal 0.3% year-on-year rise in July output to 445,214 metric tons, while Peru’s production surged 7.1% in June, led by higher output at the Las Bambas mines. However, production risks emerged as Chilean state miner Codelco cut its 2025 guidance after an accident at the El Teniente mine reduced output by 33,000 tons. In terms of demand, Chinese market dynamics remain a key driver. Copper inventories at the Shanghai Exchange fell 2.4% this week, while the Yangshan premium, a gauge of import appetite, stabilized at $55 per ton, its highest since early June. China’s copper concentrate imports rose nearly 9% in July to 2.56 million tonnes, underscoring strong smelter demand, with the sector on track for record production. On the global balance front, the International Copper Study Group reported a 36,000-tonne surplus in June, smaller than May’s 79,000-tonne surplus, while the January–June surplus narrowed to 251,000 tonnes from 395,000 tonnes last year. Citi lifted its short-term copper forecast to $9,200 per tonne. Technically, copper is under fresh buying as open interest rose 3.45% to 6,843 alongside price gains of 9.2 rupees. Immediate support lies at 893.8, with further downside potential toward 887.1, while resistance is pegged at 904.5, above which prices may test 908.5.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 887.1-908.5.

* Copper gains due to a weaker dollar and rising bets that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September.

* Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the SHFE fell 2.4% from last Friday, the exchange said.

* Copper output in Chile, registered a slight increase of 0.3% year-on-year in July to 445,214 metric tons.

Zinc

Zinc prices surged 1.53% to settle at 271.3, supported by expectations of production cuts from Chinese miners and refiners alongside a weaker U.S. dollar after the Federal Reserve signaled a likely September rate cut. Improved credit conditions globally and optimism over demand recovery in Europe, where new orders rose in August for the first time since May 2024, also lent strength to the market. On the supply side, constraints remain a key factor. Beijing has pledged to reduce excess capacity in the metal sector to counter deflationary pressures, while operations in southern China were disrupted by heavy rainfall. Earlier, Teck Resources reported a 20% output drop at its Red Dog mine, while Nyrstar announced a 25% annual production cut. At the same time, LME zinc inventories have dropped by 130,000 tonnes this year to just 42,000 tonnes, underscoring tightening availability, though SHFE inventories rose slightly by 1.3% last week. Globally, ILZSG data showed the zinc market deficit narrowed to 27,200 tonnes in June, compared to 31,400 tonnes in May, while the first half of 2025 still recorded a refined zinc surplus of 47,000 tonnes. Meanwhile, China’s refined zinc production in July rose sharply, up 3% month-on-month and 23% year-on-year, with year-to-date output climbing more than 4%. Technically, zinc remains under fresh buying momentum as open interest spiked 14.13% to 3,360, while prices advanced 4.1 rupees. Immediate support is placed at 268.2, with further downside toward 265.1, while resistance is seen at 273.4, above which prices may test 275.5.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 265.1-275.5.

* Zinc gained amid likelihood of capacity cuts by Chinese miners and refiners.

* The developments were consistent with lower LME inventories, dropped by 130,000 tonnes since the start of the year to 42,000 tonnes.

* Euro zone businesses saw new orders increase in August for the first time since May 2024.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices gained 0.91% to settle at 255.2, supported by tightening supply concerns despite a reported surplus in June. Global primary aluminium production in June reached 6.0944 million tons against consumption of 5.9113 million tons, leaving a surplus of 183,100 tons. However, for the first half of 2025, production stood at 36.8473 million tons compared to consumption of 36.884 million tons, reflecting a marginal shortage of 36,700 tons. Data from the International Aluminium Institute showed July output rose 2.5% year-on-year to 6.373 million tonnes. On the supply front, disruptions have added bullish sentiment. Guinea’s military-led government revoked all mining licenses, including those feeding Emirates Global Aluminium, raising concerns of reduced bauxite supply. Additionally, South32 announced the closure of its Mozal smelter in Mozambique, Africa’s second largest, due to power shortages. China’s annual production cap of 45 million tons is expected to restrict further supply growth, while sanctions on Russian producers continue to weigh on European availability. Aluminium stocks in Japan fell slightly to 315,400 tonnes in July, further underscoring tightness. On the demand side, China continues to play a dominant role. July aluminium exports rose to 542,000 tonnes from 489,000 tonnes in June, while imports surged 38.2% year-on-year to 360,000 tonnes. Technically, the market is under fresh buying pressure, with open interest climbing 5.02% to 4,140 as prices gained 2.3 rupees. Support is placed at 253.6, with a break lower exposing 251.9, while resistance is seen at 256.3, above which prices may test 257.3.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 251.9-257.3.

* Aluminium gained amid support from the impact of lower supply.

* European markets continue to face constrained supply due to sanctions on Russia

* Global primary aluminium output in July rose 2.5% year on year to 6.373 million tonnes.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices settled marginally higher by 0.17% at 13,282, supported by tight stocks at the farm level and steady demand. In Warangal, farmers’ stocks are nearly exhausted, with no fresh arrivals seen in the last two days, keeping supplies limited. Weather conditions and crop prospects remain key drivers, as favourable rains during the sowing season are expected to boost acreage by 15–20%, which could limit significant upside. For 2024-25, the turmeric area is reported at 3.30 lakh hectares, around 10% higher than the previous season’s 3 lakh hectares, indicating a healthy supply outlook ahead. At the Duggirala market, fresh crop arrivals continue to attract strong buyer interest, with new produce commanding a premium over older stock due to better quality. Daily trade volumes remain firm at 1,000–1,200 bags (70 kg each), with nearly 50–55% of the new crop already traded. Arrivals are expected to continue through June, keeping activity robust despite the season’s end.  On the export front, turmeric shipments during April–June 2025 rose by 3.12% to 47,949.56 tonnes compared to 46,498.64 tonnes a year ago. However, June exports at 13,787.28 tonnes were down 7.93% year-on-year and dropped sharply by 28.21% from May 2025, reflecting some weakness in overseas demand. In the Nizamabad spot market, prices eased by 1.16% to 13,669.6. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering as open interest dropped 0.55% to 17,940 while prices edged up by 22 rupees. Immediate support is at 13,218, below which 13,154 could be tested, while resistance is placed at 13,386, with a breakout likely to push prices towards 13,490.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 13154-13490.

* Turmeric gains as turmeric stocks held by farmers in Warangal are nearly depleted.

* Market participants are closely monitoring weather patterns and crop conditions.

* However upside seen limited amid increase in acreage due to favourable rains during the current sowing season.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 13669.6 Rupees dropped by -1.16 percent.

Jeera

Jeera slipped by 0.36% to close at 19,250, weighed down by weak domestic and export demand following the conclusion of the retail season. Traders noted that foreign buyers remain largely inactive, while adequate supplies in the domestic market are adding to the pressure. On the production side, output for the current season is expected to remain close to last year’s levels, aided by favorable crop conditions and timely sowing. Reports indicate India’s production may reach 90–92 lakh bags, compared to 1.10 crore bags last year. Gujarat is expected to produce 42–45 lakh bags, while Rajasthan could contribute 48–50 lakh bags. Globally, production from competing origins like Syria, Turkey, Afghanistan, and China remains modest. China’s estimates have been revised down to 70–80 thousand tons due to adverse weather, while Syria and Turkey are expected to produce around 9–10 thousand and 10–11 thousand tons, respectively. Afghanistan’s output is pegged at 10–12 thousand tons. Despite this, export demand from India remains sluggish, capping price gains. Jeera exports for April–June 2025 fell sharply by 19.57% to 59,247.76 tonnes against 73,666.09 tonnes in the same period last year. However, June exports rose 10.26% year-on-year to 16,322.06 tonnes but dropped 29.67% compared to May 2025. In Unjha, spot prices declined 0.51% to 19,564.75. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation as open interest slipped by 0.51% to 4,665 while prices eased by 70. Immediate support lies at 19,210, with further weakness likely toward 19,160. Resistance is at 19,320, above which 19,380 could be tested.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 19160-19380.

* Jeera prices dropped due to weak domestic and export demand

* Only 3-4 lakh bags are expected to be traded by the end of the season, leaving a carry-forward stock of about 16 lakh bags

* Total arrivals witnessed a marginal increase to 12,000 bags (55 kg each) as against 11,800 bags on the previous day.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 19564.75 Rupees dropped by -0.51 percent.

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