MCX Gold Oct is expected to rise towards Rs110,800 level as long as it holds above Rs109,400 level - ICICI Direct
Metal’s Outlook
Bullion Outlook
* Spot Gold is likely to hold its gains and trade higher on expectation that the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates for the first time since December. Growing bets of multiple rate cuts in the coming months will boost gold’s demand. Signs of slowdown in the US labor market and steady US inflation numbers has strengthened the chances of more than 50 bps rate cut in this year. Additionally, safe haven buying and strong inflows into the ETF’s would also help the precious metals to trade higher. Meanwhile, investors will eye on US retail sales numbers. Any sign of weakness in the numbers would increase the prospects of 50 bps rate cut.
* MCX Gold Oct is expected to rise towards Rs110,800 level as long as it holds above Rs109,400 level.
* Spot Silver is expected to rise towards $43.40 per ounce mark, as long as it trades above $42.00 mark. MCX Silver Dec is expected to extend its gains towards Rs131,500 level as long as it trades above Rs128,000 level
Base Metal Outlook
* Copper prices are expected to trade with bullish bias amid weak dollar and growing prospects of monetary policy easing from the US Federal Reserve. Prices would get support due to supply disruption from the second largest copper mine in Indonesia. Moreover, capacity constrain in China would strengthen its bullish bias. Furthermore, a strong demand of refined copper in China due to recent policy changes would also push prices higher towards $9200 per tons. Meanwhile, investors will eye on key central bank policies this week to get more clarity in price direction.
* MCX Copper Sep is expected to rise towards Rs 927 level as long as it holds above Rs 912 level.
* MCX Aluminum Sep is expected to rise towards Rs 264 level as long as it stays above Rs 258 level. MCX Zinc Sep is likely to rise towards Rs 286 as long as it stays above Rs 280. A soft dollar and capacity constrain in China would likely to support the metal prices.
Energy Outlook
* Crude oil is likely to hold its gains on renewed concerns of supply disruption from Russia. Persistent attacks on Russian energy infrastructures and mounting US pressure on buyers of Russian crude would hurt Russian supplies. Additionally, any secondary sanction on companies in India and China could also bring volatility in price. On the supply side, forecast of supply boost from OPEC+ would counter the supply issues from Russia. Meanwhile, soft dollar and growing bets of lose monetary policy from the FOMC and additional push from China could limit its downside.
* WTI crude oil is likely to hold its ground near $62 level and rebound towards $65 per barrel mark. A strong put base near $60 strike would act a major support for price. MCX Crude oil Oct is likely to move higher towards Rs 5700 level as long as it stays above Rs 5450 level.
* MCX Natural gas Sep is expected to face the hurdle near Rs 270 and move lower towards Rs 256 level
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