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Gold

Gold yesterday settled up by 0.74% at 110,179 as the dollar index slipped to 97.3, its weakest level since late July. The market largely priced in a 25 basis points rate cut by the Federal Reserve, expected on Wednesday, while leaving a slim chance of a 50 bps cut amid signs of a cooling labor market. Investors are focused on the Fed’s updated macroeconomic projections, especially the interest rate path, with expectations of continued easing through the year-end. The vote split in the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will also draw attention, as a three-way split hasn’t been seen since 2019. UBS raised its gold price forecast by $300 to $3,800 per ounce by end-2025 and $3,900 by mid-2026, driven by Fed easing, a weaker dollar, and geopolitical risks. On the demand side, physical gold purchases remained muted in major Asian markets due to record-high prices, with China offering discounts of $17-$24 per ounce. India's domestic market saw discounts narrow to $6 and premiums rise to $2 per ounce. Central bank purchases declined by 21% in Q2 2025, while global gold ETF holdings reached near-record levels. Investment demand rose sharply by 78% YoY, offsetting slumps in jewelry demand. Technically, the market is under short covering, with open interest dropping -2.46% to 15,570 and prices up 809. Support lies at 109,280, with a further test of 108,375 possible. Resistance is at 110,710, and a move above could see prices testing 111,235.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 108375-111235.

* Gold gains as dollar index slipped, its weakest level since late July.

* Gold also continued to draw safe-haven support from geopolitical uncertainties.

* Markets have fully priced in a 25 bps cut to the fed funds rate, while leaving a small chance of a larger 50 bps move.

Silver

Silver yesterday settled up by 0.46% at 129,429 as investors positioned themselves ahead of an expected US Federal Reserve interest rate cut this week. The market is almost fully pricing in a 25-basis-point cut on Wednesday, marking the first since December, though some participants still anticipate a larger 50 bps reduction. US President Donald Trump intensified pressure on Fed Chair Jerome Powell, urging a bigger rate cut to stimulate the housing sector. Recent US economic indicators further supported expectations of Fed easing, as the labor market showed clear signs of weakness. The August Nonfarm Payrolls report revealed just 22,000 jobs added versus the forecasted 75,000, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, the highest since late 2021. On the investment front, silver ETPs saw net inflows of 95 million ounces (Moz) in the first half of 2025, already surpassing last year’s total. By June, global silver ETP holdings stood at 1.13 billion ounces, just 7% shy of the peak in February 2021. The total value of these holdings crossed US$40 billion for the first time in June. While European retail silver investment has seen moderate recovery, Indian retail investment showed a strong 7% YoY gain in the first half of 2025, driven by bullish price expectations. Technically, the market is under short covering, with open interest down -2.69% to 18,221 and prices up 591. Silver is finding support at 127,830, with a further test of 126,225 possible. Resistance is seen at 130,330, and a move above could test 131,225.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 126225-131225.

* Silver rose as investors braced for an expected US Fed interest rate cut this week.

* Recent US economic data has cemented expectations for Fed easing with clear signs of a cooling labor market.

* Nonfarm Payrolls report showed that the US economy added just 22K jobs in August, far below the 75K forecast.

Crude Oil

Crude oil yesterday settled up by 1.1% at 5,587, as investors evaluated the impact of Ukrainian drone attacks targeting Russian oil infrastructure and U.S. President Donald Trump urging NATO nations to stop buying Russian oil. Ukraine intensified assaults on key Russian energy assets, including the Primorsk oil export terminal, which has a loading capacity of about 1 million barrels per day, and the Kirishi refinery, which processes approximately 355,000 barrels daily, accounting for 6.4% of Russia’s total output. However, gains were capped amid concerns over weakening U.S. demand and a potential global supply surplus due to rising production from OPEC+. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a crude stock build of 3.9 million barrels for the week ending September 5, significantly above expectations of a 1 million-barrel draw. Gasoline inventories also rose by 1.5 million barrels, while distillate stockpiles increased by 4.7 million barrels, far exceeding forecasts. On the production front, OPEC maintained its robust global oil demand growth forecasts for 2025, highlighting solid economic growth trends.  Technically, the crude oil market is under short covering, with open interest declining sharply by -34.06% to 4,319, while prices rose by 61. Support is seen at 5,543, with a further test of 5,500 likely if the market corrects. Resistance is now expected around 5,622, and a decisive break above could lead to a test of 5,658.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5500-5658.

* Crude oil prices rose as investors assessed the impact of Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries

* U.S. President Donald Trump pressing NATO nations to halt Russian oil purchases.

* However, gains in crude were capped by concerns over slowing US demand as well as a looming global supply surplus.

Natural Gas

Natural Gas yesterday settled up by 1.68% at 265.8, supported by forecasts indicating steady demand over the next two weeks. Government data revealed a larger-than-expected 71 bcf storage build for the week ending September 5, significantly above last year’s 36 bcf and the five-year average of 56 bcf. Despite the larger storage build, supply tightness remains a key support factor as average gas output in the Lower 48 states fell to 107.6 billion cubic feet per day in September, down from the record high of 108.3 bcfd in August. This moderation in output is contributing to market firmness, while a 6% surplus over the five-year average suggests relatively ample storage. Weather forecasts predict warmer-than-normal conditions through at least September 30, expected to elevate power generation demand to fuel air conditioners. LSEG projected gas demand to rise slightly from 102.5 bcfd this week to 103.1 bcfd next week, reflecting steady consumption trends including exports. The EIA expects U.S. natural gas production to peak in 2025 at 106.6 bcfd before easing in 2026, while consumption is projected to hit a record 91.5 bcfd in 2025. Technically, the market is under short covering as open interest declined by -5.4% to settle at 26,591, while prices gained 4.4. Currently, Natural Gas is supported at 260.2, with a possible test of 254.5 if the market corrects further. Resistance is likely to be seen at 268.9, and a decisive move above this level could push prices toward 271.9.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 254.5-271.9.

* Natural gas gained amid forecasts for steady demand over the next two weeks.

* Government data showed a larger-than-expected 71 bcf storage build last week.

* Average gas output fell to 107.6 bcfd in September from August’s record.

Copper

Copper yesterday settled up by 0.78% at 920.95, supported by supply disruptions and tightening inventories. Mine disruptions remained a key driver of the bullish momentum, as China reported around a 5% drop in September refined copper production, reducing global supply by approximately 500,000 tonnes. LME inventories stayed near multi-year lows, about 40% below their five-year average, intensifying supply concerns. Adding to the supply pressure, Freeport-McMoRan confirmed its Grasberg mine in Indonesia will remain shut as rescue efforts continue for seven missing workers. On the macroeconomic front, expectations of looser US monetary policy further bolstered market sentiment. Global market fundamentals also supported the bullish case, as the copper surplus shrank sharply to 36,000 tons in June from 79,000 tons in May. In the first half of 2025, the market surplus was 251,000 tons, down from 395,000 tons in the same period last year. Production increases at Codelco and BHP’s Escondida mine helped offset declines elsewhere, while China’s strong import appetite bolstered the market, with the Yangshan copper premium rising 1.8% to $58 per ton. Technically, the market is under short covering as open interest dropped by -13.51% to settle at 4,838 contracts, while prices gained 7.1. Copper is currently supported at 914.7, with a possible test of 908.4 if corrections continue. Resistance is likely seen at 924.4, and a decisive move above may see prices testing 927.8.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 908.4-927.8.

* Copper prices gained as tightening global supply underpinned prices.

* China reported around a 5% drop in September production, cutting about 500,000 tonnes of refined copper.

* The decline comes as inventories remain near multi-year lows, with LME stockpiles about 40% below their five-year average.

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled up by 1.11% at 283, driven by investor expectations of upcoming U.S. interest rate cuts and concerns about tightening supply. The U.S. dollar weakened after jobless claims rose and inflation data remained moderate, further reinforcing market bets on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week. Meanwhile, China’s government plans to deepen fiscal reforms and use fiscal tools to stimulate consumption and investment, supporting industrial metals sentiment. On the supply front, Zinc inventories in LME registered warehouses dropped significantly, now standing at 50,825 tons – nearly a 75% decline since mid-April. Cancelled warrants suggest another 15,375 tons are set to exit the LME system. This scarcity has created a backwardation in the market, with the cash price currently trading around $18 per ton above the three-month forward contract. Production dynamics remained mixed. Some smelters in South China faced production disruptions due to heavy rainfall, while others increased output, with China’s refined zinc production rising 3% MoM and 23% YoY in July. However, capacity cuts by Chinese miners and refiners likely limit any significant downside. Technically, the market is under short covering as open interest dropped by -6.43% to 3,389 contracts, while prices gained 3.1. Currently, Zinc is finding support at 276.6, with a possible test of 270.2 if corrections extend. Resistance is likely at 286.6, and a decisive breakout could see prices testing 290.2.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 270.2-290.2.

* Zinc gains fuelled by investor expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts and concern over possible supply shortages.

* China to deepen fiscal reforms, use policy tools to support consumption, investment

* Zinc inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 8.8% from last Friday.

Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -0.4% at 260.1, following profit booking after recent gains driven by speculative bullish positions and brisk demand for physical metal. The supply tightening was evident as primary aluminium stocks in the LME plunged nearly 100,000 tonnes to 375,000 tonnes in the early part of the month. Additionally, Guinea Alumina lost all mining licenses as the military-led government in Guinea transferred mining leases to a state-run company, potentially halting ore production for major producers like Emirates Global Aluminium. Globally, the aluminium market experienced a supply surplus in June, with production reaching 6.0944 million tonnes against consumption of 5.9113 million tonnes, creating a surplus of 183,100 tonnes. Despite rising global production—primary aluminium output in July rose 2.5% YoY to 6.373 million tonnes—demand remained sluggish. On the regional front, European supply remains constrained due to sanctions on Russia, prompting the EU aluminium sector to urge export duties on scrap metal to avoid domestic shortages. In China, aluminium inventories in the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 3.3% from last Friday, while exports of unwrought aluminium increased to 542,000 tonnes in July.  Technically, the market is under long liquidation with a -9.09% drop in open interest, settling at 4,310 contracts as prices declined by 1.05. Support stands at 257.8, with a further test likely at 255.3, while resistance is at 262 and a move above could test 263.7.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 255.3-263.7.

* Aluminium dropped  on profit booking after prices gained amid speculative bullish positions and quick demand for physical aluminium.

* EU aluminium sector urges 30% export duty on scrap metal to protect local producers.

* Aluminium inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 3.3% from last Friday.

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -0.79% at 12,260 amid an increase in acreage driven by favorable rains during the current sowing season. However, the downside remained limited as recent heavy rainfall in key growing regions, particularly in Nanded, damaged around 15% of the crop area, raising concerns over crop quality and future supply. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecast of normal to below-normal rainfall in some parts of South India in September has further heightened uncertainty among turmeric growers. On the supply side, stocks held by farmers in Warangal are nearly depleted, with no fresh arrivals reported over the last two days. Meanwhile, low inflows and cautious selling have helped maintain firmness in prices. Current dry weather conditions are supporting timely planting, and preliminary estimates suggest turmeric acreage could rise by 15-20%, as alternative crop options offer lower profitability. In the 2024-25 season, turmeric cultivation area increased by 10% to 3.30 lakh hectares compared to the previous season. Turmeric exports from April to June 2025 increased by 3.12% to 47,949.56 tonnes compared to the same period last year. However, exports in June 2025 declined by -7.93% year-on-year and -28.21% month-on-month. Technically, the market is under long liquidation with open interest down by -0.83% to settle at 16,735. Prices are now supported at 12,130, with further downside likely toward 11,998. Resistance is seen at 12,446, and a move above could test 12,630, indicating potential bullish momentum.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 11998-12630.

* Turmeric dropped amid increase in acreage due to favourable rains during the current sowing season.

* While downside capped as recent rainfall has caused damage to standing turmeric crops in major growing regions.

* Recent heavy rainfall in Nanded has adversely affected the region's turmeric cultivation, damaging approximately 15% of the crop area.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 13062.55 Rupees dropped by -0.7 percent.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled up by 0.88% at 19,595 on low-level buying after prices had declined due to weak domestic and export demand following the retail season. The downside remained limited as support emerged after the GST Council lowered the GST rate to 5%, providing cost relief to FMCG exporters and boosting domestic demand. Market participants largely attributed the previous fall in prices to the conclusion of the retail season and continued inactivity by foreign buyers. Additionally, pressure was seen due to comfortable supply conditions and tepid export interest amid adequate existing stocks. The current season’s production is expected to remain similar to the previous year due to favorable crop conditions and good sowing practices. Estimates suggest cumin production in India will be around 90-92 lakh bags in 2025, down from 1.10 crore bags last year. Production in Gujarat is forecast at 42-45 lakh bags and in Rajasthan at 48-50 lakh bags. Jeera exports during April-June 2025 declined by -19.57% to 59,247.76 tonnes compared to the same period in 2024. However, June 2025 exports rose by 10.26% year-on-year but dropped -29.67% from May 2025. Technically, the market is under fresh buying with open interest rising by 8.76% to 3,129. Support is seen at 19,410, and below that, 19,230 may be tested. Resistance lies at 19,710, and a further move above could target 19,830, signaling a potential bullish trend continuation.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 19230-19830.

* Jeera gains on low level buying after prices dropped due to weak domestic and export demand post retail season.

* GST council lowers GST rate to 5% which will support FMCG exports & domestic demand.

* Comfortable supplies and tepid export interest amid adequate existing stocks, limiting upside.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 19655.55 Rupees dropped by -0.04 percent.

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