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Bullion –

Comex Gold August futures surged 1.4% on Monday to settle above $3,404 per ounce, while Silver rose 2.2%, supported by a weaker dollar and falling Treasury yields. Gold touched a 4-week high, and silver marked its highest close since September 2011 as amid escalating trade tensions. US Commerce Secretary Lutnick reaffirmed the August 1 tariff deadline, emphasizing that the 10% base rate will remain during talks followed by Trump’s formal notifications to trading partners regarding potential tariffs. Meanwhile, the EU is finalizing retaliatory measures targeting €72 billion in US exports, including key sectors such as automobiles, aviation, and digital services. Now the market is pricing in a 60% probability of a Fed rate cut in September followed by over 80% and 90% in following meetings respectively. Today, Gold trading steady above $3,400 as attention turns to Powell’s remarks later today, amid political pressure and speculation over leadership changes.

Crude Oil –

WTI crude oil prices slipped to $67.2/bbl as markets currently see limited impact from new European sanctions on Russian oil supplies due to take effect on 3 September after a 90- day transition period. Also, Turkey is reportedly interested in restarting an 1.6 million bpd Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline with Iraq that has been offline since 2023 due to a dispute. This may prompt Saudi Arabia to boost its crude exports to maintain its market share, thereby adding to global supplies. However, sharp losses were cushioned by weaker dollar. Today, oil prices continued to decline on caution ahead of Trump’s August 1 tariff deadline. Besides, US Treasury Secretary Bessent indicated that the US would impose hefty duties on countries it found to be purchasing Russian energy.

Natural Gas -

NYMEX Gas futures tumbled more than 6% yesterday weighed down by US record output and prospects of further increase in supply indicated by a gain of 9 gas rigs last week.

Base metals –

LME base metals opened the week higher, led by copper which rose 0.8% to $9,860/ton, its highest level in nearly two weeks. The rally was underpinned by signs of strengthening demand from China, where refined copper imports surged 15% in June. Local smelters are bracing for a potential scrap shortage, as US copper scrap shipments to China plunged to a 21-year low amid looming 50% tariffs and reduced tax incentives for Chinese scrap processors. Sentiment was also supported by China's pledge to stabilise key industrial sectors, with upcoming action plans expected to boost metals demand. Meanwhile, global aluminium output held steady in June, with a modest 0.94% y-o-y, increase. LME metals trade mixed today as optimism over improved demand from China and the government's commitment to stabilize industrial growth, counter caution ahead of the US tariff deadline.

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