Commodity Weekly Insights 11th August 2025 by Axis Securities
The Week That Was
* Gold surged to a record high on Friday after the U.S. confirmed that import tariffs now apply to one-kilo gold bars, disrupting the global bullion trade. Previously exempt, Swiss gold bars will now face President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs, which increased from 10% in July to 39% on Thursday. The ruling, issued 31st July by U.S. Customs and Border Protection, followed a petition from a Swiss refinery’s subsidiary. Weak U.S. economic data also fueled expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, adding to gold’s appeal. Prices are expected to remain volatile next week amid uncertainty over Trump’s tariff policy.
* Silver climbed above $38 per ounce, heading for a 3% weekly gain as rate cut expectations and new tariffs boosted safehaven demand. Rising jobless claims and weak payrolls data led traders to price in a Fed rate cut in September, with another possible in December. Speculation grew that Fed Governor Christopher Waller, seen as dovish, could be Trump’s choice to lead the central bank. Trump’s sweeping retaliatory tariffs, ranging from 10% to 41%, took effect on Thursday. The measures have fueled concerns over their potential drag on the U.S. economy.
* Crude oil ended the last session marginally flat, supported by doubts over the acceptance of the U.S. peace plan in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. A weaker dollar and a stock market rally also lent support to prices. Earlier, crude fell to twomonth lows after reports that the U.S. and Russia were exploring a deal to end the conflict. Prices rebounded after President Trump warned of new tariffs on buyers of Russian energy if a ceasefire is not reached by today. On Wednesday, Trump doubled tariffs on Indian exports to 50% over its purchases of Russian crude.
* Copper futures hovered around $4.4 per pound on Friday, set to end the week flat. Markets weighed the impact of a fatal accident that shut Codelco’s flagship El Teniente mine in Chile. The miner has sought approval to restart part of the world’s largest underground copper operation, which produced over 300,000 metric tons in 2024. Prices remain near four-month lows after a 20% plunge last week as President Trump excluded refined copper from new tariffs. The levies will target semifinished products like wires and pipes, but not ore, cathodes, or concentrates.
MCX Gold
Technical Outlook:
MCX Gold posted a nearly 2% gain last week, marking its second consecutive weekly advance. The metal has decisively broken a key resistance zone, signalling potential for further upside. A sustained breakout above Rs 1,02,500 could open the way for a rally toward the Rs 1,05,000–Rs 1,06,000 levels. On the downside, immediate and strong support is placed at Rs 97,000. Technical indicators remain firmly bullish, reinforcing the positive momentum in price action.
Recommendation:
We recommend buying MCX Gold above Rs 1,02,500, with a stoploss below Rs 1,01,000 and targets of Rs 1,05,000 and Rs 1,06,000.
Current market price (CMP): Rs 1,01,800.
MCX Silver
Technical Outlook:
MCX Silver surged over 4% last week, maintaining its pattern of higher highs and higher lows — a structure that favours buying on dips. A decisive breakout above Rs 1,17,000 could drive prices toward Rs 1,21,000–Rs 1,24,000. Strong support is seen at Rs 1,09,000. The price is trading above its 20-week SMA, reflecting underlying strength, while the daily MACD has generated a bullish crossover, signalling the potential for further upside momentum
Recommendation:
We recommend buying MCX Silver above Rs 117,000, with a stop-loss below Rs 1,14,000 and targets of Rs 1,21,000 and Rs 1,24,000.
Current market price (CMP): Rs 1,14,880.
MCX Crude Oil
Technical Outlook:
MCX Crude Oil ended last week with a sharp decline of nearly 5%, failing to sustain the prior week’s rally. On the downside, Rs 5,500 has emerged as a key support level, with multiple reversals observed from this zone. A breakdown below Rs 5,500 could trigger a deeper fall toward Rs 5,200–Rs 5,000. On the upside, strong resistance is placed at Rs 6,200. Technical indicators are signalling weakness, suggesting a bearish bias in the near term
Recommendation:
We recommend selling MCX Crude Oil below Rs 5,500, with a stop-loss above Rs 5,700 and targets of Rs 5,200 and Rs 5,000.
Current market price (CMP): Rs 5,610.
MCX Copper
Technical Outlook:
MCX Copper ended last week with a marginal gain of nearly 1%, recovering about half of the prior week’s decline. The broader trend remains positive, though prices continue to face strong resistance at Rs 905, which has capped gains in recent sessions. A breakout above this level could accelerate bullish momentum toward Rs 930–Rs 940. On the downside, strong support is placed at Rs 860. The daily MACD is in the process of forming a bullish crossover, indicating the potential for further upside.
Recommendation:
We recommend buying MCX Copper above Rs 905, with a stoploss below Rs 885 and targets of Rs 930 and Rs 940.
Current market price (CMP): Rs 889
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