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Bullion – Spot gold surged nearly 1% on Monday to record highs above $3,685/Oz, while silver climbed over 1.1% to a 14-year peak near $42.7. Gains were fueled by a softer dollar, declining Treasury yields, and positioning ahead of this week’s Fed meeting. Markets widely expect a 25-bps rate cut on Wednesday, the first since December, though some are betting on a deeper 50-bps move. The Fed faces unusual pressure, with a leadership dispute and Trump urging more aggressive easing. Reports that China may relax gold import and export rules further boosted sentiment, supporting both official and private demand. Meanwhile, high-level U.S.–China trade talks in Madrid have shown progress, with a potential Trump– Xi meeting in October raising hopes for stronger growth and metal demand. Today, Gold hit fresh highs of $3,689 ahead of U.S. Retail Sales data before the Fed decision.

Crude Oil – WTI crude oil surged to $63.67/bbl on Monday, extending gains made last Friday on renewed supply disruption concerns following Ukraine’s large-scale drone attack on Russia’s energy infrastructure. The strikes targeted the Primorsk oil port, Russia’s largest maritime terminal, forcing a temporary suspension of operations, and also hit the Kirishi oil refinery, one of the country’s two largest. In addition, prices received support from Trump’s renewed calls for Europe to stop buying Russian oil, along with his reiteration that the U.S. is prepared to impose “major” sanctions on Russian crude, but only if NATO allies take coordinated action. Oil prices remain supported today amid ongoing geopolitical tensions in Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Gaza, though further gains may be limited after U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that the government would refrain from imposing additional tariffs on Chinese goods to deter China from buying Russian oil, unless European nations also implement steep duties on China and India

Natural Gas – NYMEX gas futures futures started the week on a positive note and closed above $3/mmBtu, helped by weather forecasts showing a shift to above-normal temperatures across key regions for the second half of September

Base metals - LME base metals mostly closed higher yesterday despite signs of a deepening Chinese economic slowdown, as they were buoyed by a weaker dollar. Data from the NBS showed China’s retail sales rose 3.4% y/y in August, while industrial output growth slowed to 5.2%, and fixed-asset investment increased just 0.5%, with all figures missing estimates. Copper moved closer to $10,192/tonne, the highest since June 2024, buoyed by optimism regarding US-China talks following reports that the top two economies reached a framework agreement on TikTok. Similarly, zinc surged 0.7%, while aluminium breached the $2,700/tonne mark. Today, metals edged lower after hitting multi-month highs yesterday, as traders keenly await the FOMC meeting and economic projections for hints on the monetary policy outlook.

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