MCX Gold Oct is expected to rise towards higher band of the consolidation range of 71,000-72,250 - ICICI Direct
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Bullion Outlook
* Spot gold is likely to hold above $2490 and move higher towards $2530 amid growing prospects of loose monetary policy from major central banks. Further dovish comments from the Fed members and moderation in the US inflation numbers would support the yellow metal to trade higher. US annual CPI is expected to drop to 2.6% against previous reading of 2.9%. Moreover, strong demand from over the counter and ETF inflows would provide support to the bullions.
* MCX Gold Oct is expected to rise towards higher band of the consolidation range of 71,000-72,250. A move above 72,250 would open the doors towards 72,800.
* Spot silver is expected to rebound towards the immediate hurdle near 20 day EMA at $28.75, as long as it holds above $27.70. MCX Silver December is expected to move higher towards 84,500, as long as it holds the key support at 82,000.
Base Metal Outlook
* Copper prices are expected to trade higher amid improved demand in China. Increasing EV sales and expectation of loan growth indicates recovery in the economy. Further, growing bets of fresh round of stimulus from China after the inflation data would also support the metals to trade higher. Additionally, rise in Yangshan copper premium to one-month high indicates improving demand in China. Meanwhile increasing inventory levels in LME would limit its upside. Today’s focus will remain on US CPI data as it would bring more clarity on the quantum of rate cut this year.
* MCX Copper September is expected to hold the support at 778 and move towards the key resistance at 800. Only move below 778 it would turn weaker.
* MCX Aluminum is expected to face the hurdle near 223 and weaken towards 218. Only above, 223 it would rise towards 225.
Energy Outlook
* NYMEX Crude oil is likely to remain under pressure amid demand concerns. Downward revision to OPEC+’s demand growth in 2024 and 2025 would weigh on oil prices. Further, China’s crude oil imports fell by 7% in August compared to same period last year due to weak refining margins and low fuel consumption. Meanwhile, EIA in its monthly report stick to its higher demand forecast. Additionally, fear of supply disruption due to tropical storm in Gulf of Mexico would limit the downside in oil prices. On the upside $68 would act as major resistance for price. Similarly $65 would act as strong support for prices. Closure of OTM and ATM put strike indicates weakness in the prices.
* MCX Crude oil Sep is likely to face the hurdle near 5780 and weaken further towards 5450. Only close below 5450 it would test 5300.
* MCX Natural gas September is likely to consolidate in the band of 180 to 192. Only a move above 192, it would turn bullish.
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