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Gold

Gold prices rose by 0.85% to 1,20,666, supported by bargain hunting ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s rate decision. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 bps to 3.75%–4%, marking the lowest level since 2022, though Chair Powell hinted at a possible pause in further cuts this year. Gains were capped as investors monitored progress on a potential U.S.–China trade agreement, which could reduce safe-haven demand. Despite this, gold remains on track for its third consecutive monthly gain, up nearly 50% so far this year, driven by central bank buying, geopolitical risks, and fears of currency debasement. In India, physical demand softened as buyers awaited further price corrections following festive buying during Dhanteras and Diwali, though premiums stayed steady at $25 per ounce. Meanwhile, demand picked up in China and Singapore as lower prices spurred buying interest. Gold in China traded between $20 discounts to $8 premiums, while in Japan, it commanded a $1 premium. Data from Swiss customs showed gold exports to China surged 254% in August to 35 tons, and shipments to India rose to 15.2 tons, offsetting a sharp drop in exports to the U.S. Technically, gold is under short covering, with open interest down by 0.68% to 12,784 lots, while prices gained 1,020. Immediate support is at 1,19,460, below which it may test 1,18,260, whereas resistance lies at 1,21,750, and a break above could push prices toward 1,22,840.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 118260-122840.

* Gold prices rose reclaiming the key $4,000 per ounce level, driven by bargain hunting.

* Support also seen amid economic and geopolitical uncertainties, strong central bank buying, and concerns over currency debasement.

* The Fed cut the federal funds rate by 25 bps, bringing the target range to 3.75%-4%, its lowest level since 2022.

Silver

Silver prices climbed 1.2% to 1,46,081 amid a technical rebound and ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy decision. The Fed reduced the federal funds rate by 25 bps to 3.75%–4.00%, marking the second consecutive monthly cut and the lowest level since 2022. Policymakers cited rising downside employment risks and sticky inflation, with mixed views among committee members. Meanwhile, the U.S. government shutdown, now in its fifth week, has delayed key economic releases, adding uncertainty to market sentiment. Trade developments remain in focus as Trump and Xi are expected to finalize a framework this week that could pause tariff hikes and ease rare earth export controls. On the supply front, large silver flows from the U.S. and China to London have helped ease liquidity tightness in the OTC market, where metal shortages previously drove prices to a premium over Comex futures. The London Bullion Market Association reported 24,581 tons of silver held in vaults, valued at $36.5 billion. Investor appetite remains strong, with global silver ETP holdings rising to 1.13 billion ounces, just 7% below their 2021 peak. Retail demand in India grew 7% year-on-year, while the global silver deficit is projected to narrow by 21% to 117.6 million ounces in 2025, according to the Silver Institute. Technically, silver is under short covering, as open interest dropped by 0.46% to 19,993 lots while prices rose 1,739. Support is at 1,44,480, below which it may test 1,42,880, whereas resistance lies at 1,47,820, and a break above could push prices toward 1,49,560.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 142880-149560.

* Silver rose amid a likely technical rebound, while investors looked ahead to the latest US Federal Reserve policy decision.

* The ongoing US government shutdown entered its fifth week, delaying key economic data releases critical for shaping monetary policy expectations.

* Traders also monitored trade developments ahead of Thursday’s Trump-Xi meeting in South Korea on Thursday.

Crude oil

Crude oil prices rose 0.79% to 5,372 as traders weighed the impact of fresh U.S. sanctions on Russian oil and stronger-than-expected inventory data. The EIA reported a 6.9-million-barrel decline in U.S. crude stocks, well above expectations, alongside notable drawdowns in gasoline (-5.94 million barrels) and distillate (-3.36 million barrels) inventories. However, Cushing, Oklahoma reserves increased by 1.33 million barrels, indicating localized storage buildup. Market sentiment firmed after reports that a Russian crude tanker bound for India turned back, suggesting early disruptions following Washington’s sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil. Indian refiners have paused new Russian oil purchases pending guidance, although IOC confirmed continued compliant imports. The International Energy Agency (IEA) raised its 2025 global oil supply forecast following OPEC+’s output hikes, but trimmed demand projections amid economic headwinds. The IEA expects global oil use to rise by 700,000 barrels per day annually over 2025–26, indicating subdued consumption growth. Conversely, OPEC’s monthly report maintained strong demand forecasts and noted OPEC+ output increased 630,000 bpd to 43.05 million bpd in September, implying only a small 50,000 bpd supply deficit if production levels persist. Technically, the market is under fresh buying as open interest increased by 1.02% to 14,296 lots, with prices up 42. Support lies at 5,302, below which prices may test 5,231, while resistance is at 5,427, and a break above could push levels toward 5,481.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5231-5481.

* Crude oil rose as traders assessed the impact of US sanctions on Russian oil and fresh inventory data.

* EIA reported a larger-than-expected 6.9 mbls decline in US crude stockpiles, along with drops in gasoline and distillate inventories.

* IEA raised its forecast for global oil supply growth this year following the decision by the OPEC+ group to hike production

Natural gas

Natural gas prices slipped 0.85% to 338.7 as steady production levels and ample storage kept the market under pressure. Output has remained close to a three-week high of 108 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd), while record production earlier this year helped energy firms build inventories well above seasonal norms. Current U.S. gas storage levels are about 5% higher than the five-year average, easing supply concerns ahead of the winter heating season. Weather forecasts indicate mostly normal temperatures across the U.S. through mid-November, limiting heating demand. However, slightly colder outlooks for late November could support consumption alongside strong LNG exports. Flows to the country’s eight major LNG terminals averaged 16.6 bcfd so far in October, up from 15.7 bcfd in September and surpassing April’s record of 16.0 bcfd, highlighting robust export demand. The EIA reported an 87 bcf storage injection for the week ended October 17, exceeding both expectations (83 bcf) and the seasonal average, lifting inventories to 0.9% above last year’s level. The EIA also projected record U.S. gas output and demand for 2025, with production rising to 107.1 bcfd and consumption reaching 91.6 bcfd. LNG exports are forecast to climb to 14.7 bcfd in 2025 and 16.3 bcfd in 2026, reflecting strong global demand. Technically, the market is under fresh selling as open interest rose by 3.44% to 17,586 lots, while prices dropped 2.9. Support is at 333.1, below which prices may test 327.6, whereas resistance is at 343.1, with a move above possibly testing 347.6.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 327.6-347.6.

* Natural gas fell pressured by steady production and comfortable storage levels.

* Output has stayed near a three-week high of around 108 bcfd over the past few days.

* Current storage levels stand roughly 5% higher than average for this time of year, easing supply concerns ahead of winter.

Copper

Copper prices gained 1.22% to 1021.4, tracking a record surge in LME prices to $11,146, supported by tight mine supply, strong Chinese demand, and a weaker U.S. dollar. Optimism grew after the U.S. and China made progress on a potential trade agreement, easing global trade tensions. Supply concerns continued to support prices as Freeport-McMoRan cut its sales outlook following a fatal accident at its Grasberg mine in Indonesia, while Codelco’s El Teniente mine in Chile and other major sites faced disruptions. Global fundamentals remained bullish, with copper prices already up around 25% this year amid mine output disruptions and optimism surrounding the energy transition. BHP Group projected a 70% rise in copper demand by 2050, reinforcing long-term strength. Inventories on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 4.9% week-on-week, while China’s copper output declined 2.7% month-on-month in September. Imports of copper concentrate fell 6.2% to 2.59 million tons due to export issues from Indonesia’s Grasberg mine, though total concentrate imports for 2025 are up 7.7% year-on-year. According to the ICSG, the refined copper market may see a 178,000-tonne surplus in 2025 before shifting to a 150,000-tonne deficit in 2026, reflecting tightening conditions. Technically, copper is under fresh buying as open interest rose 3.63% to 8,412 lots, while prices climbed 12.3. Support is seen at 1011.1, below which prices may test 1000.7, whereas resistance is at 1028.4, and a move above could see prices testing 1035.3.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1000.7-1035.3.

* Copper gained tracking LME prices hit a record $11,146 amid mounting mine supply shortages

* Major global copper mines in Chile, Africa, and Indonesia have experienced consecutive disruptions, squeezing global supply.

* Glencore reported that its copper production in the first nine months fell by 17% to 583,500 tons.

Zinc

Zinc prices rose 0.4% to 301.55, supported by a severe supply squeeze in the global market outside China, where inventories have plunged to multi-year lows. LME zinc stocks fell sharply to 35,200 tons, near their lowest since March 2023, marking an 85% drawdown from the start of the year and intensifying concerns of near-term shortages. The cash-to-three-month premium on the LME surged to around $250 a ton, reflecting urgent demand for immediate delivery. In contrast, China’s social zinc ingot stocks rose to 162,000 tons as of October 23, up significantly from around 100,000 tons earlier this year, showing a stark divergence between China’s surplus and global scarcity. Signs of easing U.S.–China trade tensions and improving Chinese economic indicators, including the fastest industrial profit growth in nearly two years, also boosted sentiment. Meanwhile, the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) reported a global refined zinc market surplus of 47,900 tons in August, bringing the cumulative surplus for the first eight months of 2025 to 154,000 tons, up from 138,000 tons a year earlier. China’s refined zinc output fell 4% month-on-month in September but was up 20% year-on-year, with October production expected to rise 4% MoM and 22% YoY despite ongoing maintenance in major smelting regions. Technically, the market is under fresh buying, with open interest up 8.71% to 2,721 lots. Support is at 299.9, below which prices may test 298.2, while resistance is at 303.4, and a break above could see prices testing 305.2.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 298.2-305.2.

* Zinc gains as inventories have plunged to extremely low levels in the global zinc market outside China.

* LME zinc stocks of just 35,200 tons near their lowest since March 2023.

* The premium of the cash LME zinc contract over the three-month forward was last at $170, indicating a pressing need for short-term metal.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices gained 0.42% to 272.2, tracking LME prices which climbed above $2,900 per ton, their highest level in over three years amid tightening supply and strong longer-term demand prospects. The rally was supported by China’s renewed focus on curbing overcapacity, reiterating its annual aluminium output cap of 45 million tons, which is set to be breached later this year. Disruptions at key smelters also fueled supply concerns — Iceland’s Grundartangi smelter suspended one potline due to electrical failure, while Alcoa announced the closure of its Kwinana alumina refinery in Australia following poor bauxite grades. At the same time, demand optimism was underpinned by aluminium’s vital role in electrification and data center expansion, while easing U.S.–China trade tensions improved near-term sentiment. The International Aluminium Institute (IAI) reported global primary aluminium output rose 0.9% year-on-year in September to 6.08 million tonnes. Stocks at Japan’s major ports increased 1.8% month-on-month to 341,300 tonnes, though Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories fell 3.2%, signaling localized tightness. China’s unwrought aluminium imports surged 35.4% YoY to 360,000 tons in September, while exports fell slightly to 521,000 tons. Goldman Sachs revised its price forecast, expecting LME prices to average $2,350 per ton in Q4 2026, down from $2,700, citing slowing demand growth. Technically, aluminium is under fresh buying, with open interest up 3.59% to 4,097 lots. Support is at 270.3, below which prices may test 268.5, while resistance is at 273.8, and a break above could take prices to 275.5.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 268.5-275.5.

* Aluminium gains tracking LME prices rose past $2,900, the highest in over three years amid a backdrop of tight supply in the near term.

* Troubles for key refineries also pressured supply, with one of two potlines in Iceland's Grundartangi smelter being suspended due to electrical equipment failure

* Alcoa announced it will shut its Kwinana alumina refinery in Australia due to deteriorating bauxite or grades.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices declined by 2.23% to 14,706 amid profit booking and reports of increased acreage following favourable monsoon conditions during the sowing season. However, the downside remained limited as yields in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, and Karnataka have been affected by excessive rains, leading to crop damage and disease outbreaks in some areas, particularly in Erode. High humidity has also made turmeric preservation difficult, adding to market concerns. Reports from Nanded indicate that nearly 15% of the crop area has been damaged due to heavy rainfall, while stocks in Warangal are almost exhausted, with no fresh arrivals in recent days. Despite the seasonal pressure, buyer interest remains firm, especially at the Duggirala market, where new crop arrivals are fetching premium prices due to superior quality. Approximately 50–55% of the new crop has already been traded, and robust market activity is expected to continue in the coming weeks. On the production side, turmeric acreage for 2024–25 has risen by about 10% to 3.30 lakh hectares, supported by profitable returns compared to other crops. Turmeric exports during April–August 2025 rose by 3.31% to 80,156 tonnes, reflecting steady overseas demand. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest falling 0.98% to 11,640 lots while prices dropped 336. Support is seen at 14,524, below which prices may test 14,342, whereas resistance is at 14,964, with a move above likely to take prices toward 15,222.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 14342-15222.

* Turmeric dropped on profit booking amid increase in acreage due to favourable rains during the current sowing season.

* However downside seen limited as yields in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka have been affected due to rains.

* Also, due to continuous rains in Erode, disease outbreaks have started emerging in some areas.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 14527.35 Rupees gained by 0.26 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices fell by 1.73% to 19,930 amid profit booking and weak export demand following the end of the retail season. The decline was further driven by subdued foreign buying and comfortable domestic supplies, while arrivals remained low due to Diwali holidays in major trading centres. However, the downside was limited by bargain buying at lower levels and support from the GST Council’s decision to cut the GST rate to 5%, which is expected to boost FMCG demand and export competitiveness. Traders indicated that despite ample stock availability — with farmers holding about 20 lakh bags — only 3–4 lakh bags are likely to be traded by season end, leaving an estimated carry-forward of 16 lakh bags. Production for the current season is expected to remain similar to last year, supported by favourable weather and good sowing conditions. India’s total cumin output is pegged at 90–92 lakh bags, compared to 1.10 crore bags last year, with Gujarat contributing 42–45 lakh bags and Rajasthan around 48–50 lakh bags. On the export front, shipments during April–August 2025 dropped 17.02% to 85,977 tonnes, though August exports saw a 3.24% month-on-year rise. Technically, Jeera is under long liquidation, with open interest down by 1.09% to 2,997 lots, reflecting reduced speculative interest. Support is seen at 19,750, below which prices may test 19,570, while resistance lies at 20,220, and a breakout above this could push prices toward 20,510.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 19570-20510.

* Jeera dropped on profit booking due to weak export demand.

* Pressure also seen due to comfortable supplies and tepid export interest amid adequate existing stocks.

* Jeera exports during Apr - Aug 2025, dropped by 17.02 percent at 85977.39 tonnes as compared to Apr - Aug 2024.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 19810.55 Rupees dropped by -0.57 percent.

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