MCX Gold April is expected to hold support near Rs154,000 and bounce towards Rs160,000 - ICICI Direct
Metal’s Outlook
Bullion Outlook
* Spot gold is expected to hold its ground near $4950 and bounce back towards $5150 amid safe haven buying. Escalating conflict between US and Iran would support the bullions to rebound from its 3-week lows. Meanwhile, inflation concerns due to rising crude oil prices could delay Fed’s interest rate cut and limit upside in prices. This week US central bank is expected to hold its rates steady, whereas focus will also remain on other central banks policy decisions. At the same time investors will monitor developments from Middle east to get more cues.
* MCX Gold April is expected to hold support near Rs154,000 and bounce towards Rs160,000.
* International Spot silver is likely to move in the band of $77 and $86. MCX Silver May is expected to move towards Rs270,000 as long as it stays above Rs247,000. Only a move above Rs270,000 it would rise towards Rs278,000
Base Metal Outlook
* Copper prices are expected to face hurdle and remain under pressure amid softening Chinese demand and rising global inventory levels in major exchanges. Further, ongoing geopolitical and trade uncertainties would also hurt demand outlook. Moreover, weak credit demand in China raised concerns about the strength of industrial recovery. Moreover, fall in Yangshan copper premium likely to weigh on prices.
* In the near term MCX Copper March is projected to move towards Rs1,170 as long as it trades under Rs1,190
* MCX Aluminum March is expected to hold above Rs338 and rise towards Rs350 level. Prices are expected to remain higher due to supply disruption from the Middle east region.
* MCX Zinc March is likely to face hurdle near Rs328 level and move lower towards Rs320 level..
Energy Outlook
* NYMEX crude oil is expected to remain volatile and trade with positive bias due to supply concerns caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and lack of support from U.S. allies for naval escorts. Prices would also get support after the effective closure of the strait has forced the United Arab Emirates, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries' third-largest producer, to shut in production, reducing its output by more than half. For the day NYMEX crude is likely to move in a broader range of $91 and $101.
* MCX Crude oil April is likely to move in a broader range of Rs8500 and Rs 9250. A move above Rs9250 it would rise towards Rs9400.
* MCX Natural gas March future is expected to dip towards Rs274-275 zone as long as it trades under Rs290. Rising US gas output and waning winter demand would hurt gas prices.
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