MCX Crude oil Oct is likely to hold Rs.5380 level and move back towards Rs.5620 level - ICICI Direct
Metal’s Outlook
Bullion Outlook
* Spot Gold is likely to trade higher amid safe haven buying. Extension to US Government shutdown would hurt economic growth in U.S and increase the prospects of lower interest rate. Further, announcement of 25% tariff on imported large trucks into US by President Trump would cause further trade uncertainties and force more investors to move towards the yellow metal. Meanwhile, most of the economic data release from US will be delayed and investors will eye on comments from the Fed members and FOMC meeting minutes to get more clarity in quantum of rate cuts this year. Furthermore, strong ETF inflows and persistent central bank buying would push the spot gold to rally towards $4000 per ounce. Above $4000 per ounce would open the doors towards $4100.
* MCX Gold December is expected to rise towards Rs.121,400 level as long as it stays above Rs.118,800 level
* MCX Silver Dec is expected to remain volatile and rise towards Rs.148,800 level as long as it holds above Rs.145,500 level.
Base Metal Outlook
* Copper prices are expected to hold its ground and trade with a positive bias amid supply concerns. Production halt in Grasberg mine in Indonesia and drop in output from Chile has caused major disruption to the supply chain. Further, drop in LME inventory levels by almost 11% last month indicates tightness in the physical market. Additionally, price would also get support amid growing bets of further monetary policy easing from US Fed. Meanwhile, US government shutdowns and tariff concerns would restrict its upside.
* MCX Copper Oct is expected to find support near Rs.980 and move back towards Rs.1000 level.
* MCX Aluminum Oct is expected to rise towards Rs.262.50 level as long as it stays above Rs.259 level.
* MCX Zinc Oct looks to rise towards Rs.298 as long as it holds key support at Rs.290. Depleting inventory levels in LME would provide support to prices.
Energy Outlook
* Crude oil is likely to hold its gains and move higher towards $63 per barrel after smaller-than-expected production hike from OPEC+. Further, reduced oil production from Russia would also support prices to hold above the $60 per barrel mark. Production halt from Russia’s Kirishi oil refinery following drone attacks from Ukraine has caused major disruption. Additionally, concerns over further sanction on Russian oil purchase would also bring volatility in price. Meanwhile, extension of US Government shutdown and tariff threats would restrict any major up move in oil prices. Moreover, focus will also remain on peace negation between Hamas and Israel.
* MCX Crude oil Oct is likely to hold Rs.5380 level and move back towards Rs.5620 level. A move above Rs.5620 would open the doors towards Rs.5750. NYMEX crude oil is likely to hold $60 per barrel and rally towards $63 per barrel mark. A strong put base at $60 strike indicates strong support.
* MCX Natural gas Oct is expected to hold above Rs.295 level and rise towards Rs.310 level.
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