Maize Report on 20th June 2026 by Kedia Advisory
Price Performance: Maize prices gained nearly 9% during the month as global shipping delays significantly improved export competitiveness of Indian maize. Persistent rainfall across Bihar and West Bengal delayed procurement and drying activities, tightening spot supplies. However, upside remained partially capped due to arrivals during January–May 2026 rising over 81% YoY and production increasing 16.65% yearly.
Ethanol Demand & Domestic Consumption: Government ethanol blending targets continued supporting maize fundamentals, with nearly 15–20% of domestic production being absorbed for ethanol manufacturing. Industry reports confirmed maize surpassed sugarcane as India’s largest ethanol feedstock during May 2026. Additionally, rising demand from poultry and livestock sectors supported consumption growth, although relaxation on sugarcane-based ethanol feedstock reduced some near-term blending demand pressure.
Export Demand & Global Balance: Export demand remained exceptionally strong, with yellow maize exports surging 2139% YoY during March and 327% during Apr–Mar 2026. Global supply sentiment also turned supportive as IGC projected world corn production declining 2% during 2026-27, while global ending stocks may fall to 277.5 million tonnes, the lowest since 2013-14. However, Argentina’s output was revised higher to a record 64 million tonnes.
Production & Supply Pressures: Domestic supply conditions remained comfortable as India’s maize production for 2025-26 is projected at 461.50 lakh tonnes, up 16.65% YoY. Sowing as of 18 May reached nearly 10 lakh hectares, increasing 17.64% from last year. Additionally, Jan–May arrivals rose above 52.51 lakh tonnes, while record Chinese production of 306–307 MMT and a historic US crop continue limiting aggressive upside.
Technical Outlook: Technically, maize continues maintaining a Bullish Harmonic Structure after the recovery from lower levels. RSI remains stable to positive, while MACD sustains bullish crossover momentum, indicating continuation of the prevailing uptrend. However, volatility remains elevated and prices may witness intermittent corrections above key resistance zones.
Highlights
* Maize gained 9 percent monthly as shipping delays boost Indian regional export attractiveness significantly improving demand.
* Ethanol blending targets absorb 15 to 20 percent production tightening domestic open market supply conditions.
* Kharif maize acreage fell to 2.28 lakh hectares versus last year 2.59 lakh hectares lower.
* Uttar Pradesh began maize procurement at MSP 2400 per quintal for Kharif season officially started.
* Cabinet approved MSP 2410 per quintal raising price support for upcoming harvest season outlook firm.
* Export of Yellow Maize surged 2948 percent to 113,872 tonnes in April 2026 record jump.
* Poultry and livestock feed demand continues to strongly support domestic maize prices sustained consumption trend.
* Jan to Jun arrivals reached 64.92 lakh tonnes rising seventy three percent year-on-year increase observed.
* China corn production forecast at record 306 to 307 million metric tonnes harvest outlook strong.
* US achieved 16.8 billion bushel corn crop largest production cycle in history record output year.
* CBOT large speculators turned net short while RSI indicates overbought above 78 signal weakness phase.
* El Niño monsoon risk raises crop stress concerns and potential supply disruption outlook shift impact.
* FAO warns El Niño could reduce production across South and Southeast Asia food security pressure.
* Global corn output projected to fall two percent to 1.3 billion tonnes supply tightening outlook.
* India maize production reached record 55.093 million tonnes in third advance estimates national benchmark update.
* Argentina corn output raised to record 64 million tons by grain exchange revision upward trend.
Conclusion
Price Performance: Maize prices strengthened sharply during the month, gaining nearly 9%, supported by global shipping disruptions that improved the competitiveness of Indian maize exports. Persistent rainfall in Bihar and West Bengal delayed procurement and drying operations, tightening spot availability. However, gains were partially capped by a significant rise in arrivals, which increased over 81% YoY during January–May 2026, alongside a 16.65% increase in domestic production.
Ethanol Demand & Domestic Consumption: Domestic maize fundamentals remained supported by robust ethanol demand, with nearly 15–20% of production being diverted towards ethanol manufacturing. Industry reports indicated maize surpassed sugarcane as India's largest ethanol feedstock during May 2026. Additionally, sustained growth in poultry and livestock feed demand continued to absorb supplies. However, the government's relaxation of sugarcane-based ethanol feedstock reduced some immediate blending demand pressure.
Export Demand & Global Balance: Export demand remained exceptionally strong, with yellow maize exports surging 2,948% YoY to 113,872 tonnes in April 2026 and over 2,139% YoY during March. Globally, the IGC projected world corn production to decline by 2% in 2026/27, while global ending stocks could fall to 277.5 million tonnes, the lowest since 2013/14. Nevertheless, Argentina's corn production was revised upward to a record 64 million tonnes, partially offsetting bullish global supply concerns.
Production & Supply Dynamics: Supply conditions remain relatively comfortable despite supportive demand. India's maize production reached a record 55.093 million tonnes under the Third Advance Estimates, while 2025-26 production is projected at 461.50 lakh tonnes, up 16.65% YoY. Arrivals during January–June reached 64.92 lakh tonnes, rising over 73% YoY. Globally, record output expectations from China (306–307 MMT) and the United States' 16.8 billion bushel crop continue to moderate aggressive upside potential.
Technical Outlook: Technically, maize maintains a bullish harmonic structure after recovering from lower levels. Weekly RSI remains firmly positive and has moved into bullish territory, while MACD continues to display a bullish crossover, indicating sustained upward momentum. However, technical indicators also suggest elevated volatility, and RSI readings above 78 indicate overbought conditions. Therefore, intermittent corrections near resistance zones cannot be ruled out despite the prevailing positive trend.
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