MCX Copper May is expected to move in the band of Rs 1317-Rs1350 level. Only a move below Rs 1317 , it would slip towards Rs1300 level - ICICI Direct
Bullion Outlook
* Spot Gold is likely to move lower towards $4450 as stronger dollar, rising US treasury yields and hot inflation numbers has raised the bets that Federal Reserve will hold interest rates higher for longer. According to the latest CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25-bps rate cut this year stands at only 1%, whereas 25 bps rate hike has jumped to 51% due to persistent inflation concerns. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions could provide some support to prices.
* MCX Gold June is expected to move in the range of Rs 156,000-Rs 161,000. Only a move below Rs156,000 it would slip towards Rs 154,000. However, weaker rupee could limit downside in domestic bullion prices
* Internation Spot Silver is hovering around $74 per ounce mark; we expect prices to slip towards $70 as long as it stays below $78.50 mark. MCX Silver July is expected to trade in a wide range of Rs 264,000- Rs 282,000. Only a move below Rs Rs264,000 level, it would turn bearish.
Base Metal Outlook
* Copper prices are expected to remain under pressure due to stronger dollar and diminishing prospects of US rate cuts. Furthermore, rising inventory levels in China and on LME would weigh on metal prices. Moreover, sluggish growth in housing sales in China, would also weigh on investor sentiments. On the other hand, steady growth in the industrial production and retail sales data would limit its downside. Additionally, Shanghai Yangshan copper premium stands at $71 per metric ton, indicates strong physical demand in China.
* MCX Copper May is expected to move in the band of Rs 1317-Rs 1350 level. Only a move below Rs1317 , it would slip towards Rs 1300 level.
* MCX Aluminum May is expected to hold its ground near Rs 375-Rs 376 level and move towards Rs 386-Rs 388 level. MCX Zinc May is likely to dip towards Rs 358 as long as it stays under Rs 368-Rs 370 level. Only a move below Rs358 it would slip towards Rs 353.
Energy Outlook
* NYMEX Crude oil prices are likely to hold its gains and move towards $107 per barrel mark due to a fresh escalation of Middle East tension. A weekend attack on a UAE nuclear facility, combined with a complete breakdown in US-Iran peace talks, is highly likely to keep energy prices at elevated levels. Stalled negotiations between Washington and Tehran along with President Trump’s warning that time is running out for an agreement have raised fears that the Strait of Hormuz could face a prolonged blockade. Addition to the supply risk, expiration of temporary waivers on Russian crude sales would hurt global supplies.
* MCX Crude oil June is likely to find support near Rs9440 level and move towards Rs9900 level. Only a move above Rs 9900, it may rise towards Rs 10100.
* MCX Natural gas May is expected to hold support near Rs 275- Rs 78 level and move higher towards Rs 290-Rs 292 level.
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