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Gold

Gold yesterday settled 0.56% higher at 1,25,931, supported by rising expectations of a December Federal Reserve rate cut, as delayed U.S. economic data pointed to weakening consumer momentum. Retail sales rose only 0.2% in September, while producer price data indicated stable inflation pressures. Multiple Fed officials have recently signalled support for easing policy due to continued softness in the labor market. As a result, market expectations for a 25 bps cut have surged to over 84%, up sharply from 50% a week earlier. However, gains were capped by easing geopolitical tensions, with reports of progress in peace discussions between Ukraine and Russia, reducing safe-haven demand. Physical demand across major Asian markets remained subdued. Indian dealers offered discounts of up to $21/oz, narrower than last week’s $43 but still signalling weak buying amid price volatility. On the global front, gold demand rose 3% YoY to 1,313 tonnes in Q3, the highest quarterly figure on record, driven by a 17% surge in bar and coin demand and a 134% increase in ETF inflows, according to the World Gold Council. Central bank purchases rose 10% to 219.9 tonnes, while overall supply hit a record high due to increased recycling and mine output. The market saw short covering, with open interest dropping 15.91% to 6,747 while prices rose 706. Support lies at 1,25,365, below which levels of 1,24,800 may be tested. Resistance is at 1,26,335, and a break above could open the path toward 1,26,740.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 124800-126740.

* Gold rose as delayed economic data bolstered expectations of a December Fed rate cut.

* Recent figures suggest a slowing of consumer momentum, with retail sales rising just 0.2% in September after a stronger gain in August.

* US producer price data showed that inflation pressures remained broadly in line with expectations.

Silver

Silver yesterday settled 3.17% higher at 1,61,272, supported by soft U.S. economic data that strengthened expectations for a December Federal Reserve rate cut. Weaker retail sales, declining consumer confidence, and deteriorating labor market conditions—highlighted by ADP’s report of private employers shedding 13,500 jobs per week—have cooled sentiment. Markets now price in an 84% probability of a 25 bps cut, sharply higher from 50% a week earlier. Additional sentiment support came from reports that Kevin Hassett, known for advocating lower rates, is being considered for the Fed chair position. On the supply side, COMEX inventories fell by 7.6 moz last week to 462 moz, the lowest since March, while LBMA inventories climbed to 844 moz as arbitrage opportunities encouraged metal movement back to London. India’s wedding season has boosted physical demand, while uncertainty over potential U.S. tariffs on silver added a layer of safe-haven support. The LBMA reported that silver held in London vaults rose 6.8% in October to 26,255 tonnes, easing the liquidity squeeze caused by earlier outflows from Comex warehouses. Silver-backed ETP holdings have jumped 18% year-to-date, reflecting strong investor concerns around stagflation, U.S. fiscal risks, geopolitical tensions, and questions over Fed independence. The market saw fresh buying, with open interest rising 1.48% to 8,485 as prices gained 4,951. Support is placed at 1,58,550, below which 1,55,830 may be tested. Resistance is at 1,62,945, and a breakout could lift prices toward 1,64,620.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 155830-164620.

* Silver climbed as softer US economic data significantly boosted expectations of a December rate cut.

* Rates could fall soon without risking the inflation goal – Fed’s John Williams

* Labor market weak enough for a December cut – Fed’s Christopher Waller

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled 0.52% higher at 5,193, supported by geopolitical uncertainties and mixed supply signals. Markets initially reacted to doubts over the success of the new U.S.-backed proposal to end the Russia–Ukraine conflict after EU officials indicated Russia lacked genuine intent for peace. This limited downside sentiment and helped prices hold firm. On the supply front, OPEC+ is expected to maintain current output levels, even as it previously agreed to raise December production targets by 137,000 bpd and pause increases in Q1 next year. U.S. crude inventory data presented a mixed picture. The EIA reported a 2.8 million-barrel rise in crude stocks to 426.9 million barrels, far above estimates, while gasoline and distillate inventories increased modestly. Refinery runs rose by 211,000 bpd, pushing utilization to 92.3%, and crude imports climbed by over 1 million bpd. U.S. oil output is projected to average 13.59 million bpd this year, slightly above earlier forecasts, contributing to a growing global surplus. Agencies including Deutsche Bank, IEA, and Goldman Sachs caution that supply growth will outpace demand through 2026, with a projected surplus exceeding 4 million bpd by 2026. The market is witnessing short covering, with open interest falling 6.16% to 16,028 while prices gained 27. Crude oil now finds support at 5,164, with a break below opening the door toward 5,134. Resistance is placed at 5,224, and a move above this could trigger a rally toward 5,254.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5134-5254.

* Crude oil surged as doubts were cast on the possible success of the new U.S. proposal to end the Russia-Ukraine war.

* On the supply side, OPEC+ is likely to leave output levels unchanged at its meeting.

* Crude inventories climbed by 2.8 million barrels to 426.9 million barrels in the week ended November 21, the EIA said.

Natural gas

Natural gas yesterday settled 2.10% higher at 408.3, supported by strong fundamentals driven by record LNG export flows and expectations of colder U.S. weather. Record-high output continues to dominate supply dynamics, with Lower 48 production averaging 109.7 bcfd in November, up from 107.4 bcfd in October and surpassing the previous record of 108.3 bcfd in August. Despite this elevated supply, demand prospects have strengthened meaningfully. Meteorologists forecast below-normal temperatures across the U.S. through mid-December, boosting heating demand. LSEG projects total U.S. gas demand, including exports, to rise from 122.6 bcfd this week to 140.1 bcfd next week, although next week’s estimate is slightly lower than earlier projections. Flows to U.S. LNG export terminals have also hit fresh records at 18.1 bcfd so far in November, reflecting strong global demand and full utilization of liquefaction capacity. Storage dynamics remain supportive as the EIA reported a 14 bcf withdrawal, aligned with forecasts and contrasting with a 3 bcf injection during the same week last year. Storage levels remain around 4–5% above seasonal norms, helped by this year’s elevated production. The market is under short covering, as open interest plunged 30.89% to 15,835 while prices gained 8.4. Natural gas now finds support at 398.9, with further weakness possible toward 389.5. Resistance is placed at 416.1, and a breakout may open the path toward 423.9.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 389.5-423.9.

* Natural gas climbed on record flows to LNG export plants

* Support also seen amid forecasts for colder weather and higher demand than previously expected.

* LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states rose to 109.7 bcfd so far in November.

Copper

Copper yesterday settled 0.97% higher at 1020.65, supported by growing expectations of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut in December, which strengthened sentiment across industrial metals. Additional support came from concerns over tighter supplies due to production disruptions at Indonesia’s Grasberg mine, where output is expected to remain constrained into next year. Soft U.S. economic data—slower retail sales and weaker consumer confidence—further boosted hopes of monetary easing. On the global front, the refined copper market continues to navigate mixed fundamentals. While the cathode market faces a surplus of 350,000–400,000 tons this year, the industry is simultaneously grappling with a significant 500,000-ton deficit in copper concentrate, likely to persist into 2025. LME copper inventories have dropped 42% this year, reflecting strong outflows, even as Comex stocks rise to record levels. The LME cash-to-three-month premium climbed to $25/ton, signaling tighter nearby supply. In contrast, China’s import appetite softened, with cathode imports down 22% year-on-year in October, while the Yangshan premium dropped to a four-month low. Refined output in China rose 8.9% annually but eased month-on-month. Market sentiment also drew support from Goldman Sachs’ upgraded December 2025 price forecast of $10,610/ton, citing long-term structural deficits driven by mining delays and rising demand from energy transition sectors. Fresh buying was noted as open interest rose 2.35% to 8,540. Copper now holds support at 1014.2, with further downside toward 1007.8. Resistance is placed at 1024.9, and a breakout could lift prices toward 1029.2.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1007.8-1029.2.

* Copper rose on growing expectations that the U.S. Fed will cut interest rates in December.

* Support also seen boosted by worries over tighter copper supply from the Grasberg mine in Indonesia this year and next.

* Copper stocks in the LME-registered warehouses are down 42% this year after outflows to Comex copper stocks.

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled 1.29% higher at 301.2, supported by a decline in the global market surplus, which fell to 20,300 tons in September from 32,700 tons in August, according to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG). For the first nine months of 2025, the global refined zinc market recorded a surplus of 120,000 tons, slightly higher than last year’s figure of 107,000 tons. This tightening in the near-term surplus helped support prices, although gains were capped by rising inventories in LME-registered warehouses, which climbed 40% in November to 47,425 tons, easing immediate supply concerns. Despite this, nearby supply tightness remained evident, with the cash-to-three-month premium holding around $135/ton, indicating strong prompt demand. However, weak macroeconomic data from China and fading expectations of a U.S. Fed rate cut added caution. Stocks in LME warehouses remain near their lowest since February 2023 at 35,875 tons, while Shanghai zinc inventories declined 0.54% from last Friday. China’s zinc exports surged sharply to 8,519 tons in October, up 244% month-on-month, as domestic smelters targeted overseas buyers amid weak local demand. Production trends show volatility: September refined output in China fell 4% month-on-month but rose over 20% year-on-year, while October production is expected to rise 4% monthly and 22% annually. Fresh buying was noted, with open interest rising 11.33% to 2,761. Zinc now finds support at 298.3, with further downside toward 295.4. Resistance is placed at 302.8, and a breakout may lift prices toward 304.4.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 295.4-304.4.

* Zinc gained as Global zinc market surplus declined to 20,300 metric tons in September from 32,700 tons in August.

* However, rising zinc stocks in LME at 47,425 tons for a gain of 40% since the start of November.

* Global refined zinc metal production is projected to rise 2.7% to 13.8 million mt in 2025.

Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled 1.51% higher at 272.2, supported by growing expectations of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut in December after dovish commentary from central bank officials. This shift in sentiment boosted risk appetite across the metals complex. Prices were further supported by concerns that Chinese smelters are approaching government-imposed capacity ceilings, tightening supply prospects. Global primary aluminium production in October rose 0.6% year-on-year to 6.294 million tonnes, according to the International Aluminium Institute, though output dropped 9% from September levels. In contrast, Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminium inventories climbed 7.67% from last Friday, reflecting mixed supply-demand signals. Supply risks remained elevated globally due to operational issues at major facilities: potline suspension at Iceland’s Grundartangi smelter, Alcoa’s decision to shut its Kwinana alumina refinery in Australia, and significant curtailments at Century Aluminium’s Iceland smelter following electrical failures. On the demand side, China’s imports of unwrought aluminium and aluminium products rose 10.4% year-on-year in October, with 350,000 tons imported, continuing the strong momentum seen earlier. Year-to-date imports reached 3.36 million tons, up 6.1%, showing robust consumption in transportation, construction, and packaging sectors. Aluminium saw fresh buying interest with open interest rising 13.63% to 3,384, while prices gained 4.05. Support is placed at 269.5, with further downside toward 266.8. Resistance lies at 273.7, and a breakout could lift prices toward 275.2.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 266.8-275.2.

* Aluminium gains supported by growing prospects of a December U.S. rate cut following dovish signals from central bank officials.

* Prices also gained supported by concerns that Chinese smelters are nearing government-imposed capacity limits, constraining supply.

* Support also seen helped by prospects of improved demand and limited output growth in China.

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled 0.73% lower at 14,090, pressured by expectations of higher acreage for the new season as favourable monsoon conditions supported sowing. Preliminary projections indicate a 15–20% increase in turmeric acreage for 2024–25, with total area estimated at 3.30 lakh hectares, up from 3 lakh hectares last year. This created mild bearish sentiment. However, the downside remained limited as crop damage continues in key producing states. Heavy rains in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, and Karnataka have affected yields, while Erode—one of the largest trading hubs—is witnessing quality deterioration due to continuous rainfall, humidity, and emerging disease outbreaks. Reports of 15% crop damage in Nanded and depleted farmer stocks in Warangal, with no fresh arrivals for two days, are lending underlying support to prices. Market inflows remain low and selling is cautious as traders closely watch weather developments. At Duggirala, fresh arrivals continue to attract strong buying interest, with new-season produce commanding a premium over older stocks due to better quality. Market activity remains firm, with 1,000–1,200 bags traded daily, and nearly 50–55% of the new crop already sold. On the export front, turmeric shipments during Apr–Sep 2025 rose 4.02% to 96,679.67 tonnes. September exports increased 7.59% YoY, though slightly down MoM by 3.58%. The market saw long liquidation, with open interest marginally lower by 0.1% to 10,040 as prices dropped by 104. Support is placed at 13,928, with a break exposing 13,764. Resistance is at 14,340, and a move above may take prices toward 14,588.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 13764-14588.

* Turmeric dropped amid increase in acreage due to favourable rains during the current sowing season.

* However downside seen limited as yields in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka have been affected due to rains.

* Due to continuous rains in Erode, disease outbreaks have started emerging in some areas.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 14664.8 Rupees gained by 0.05 percent.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled 0.77% higher at 21,520, supported by weather issues, delayed sowing, and persistently low arrivals in key markets. Uneven rainfall has slowed field preparation, especially in Gujarat, leading to one of the slowest sowing seasons in recent years. Arrivals at Unjha remain thin, and good-quality cumin continues to command higher prices. Although export demand from Gulf nations and China has improved slightly, it remains highly price-sensitive, limiting major upside. Logistical hurdles in India and the Middle East are also keeping supply tight, while the end of the retail season and muted foreign buying have capped gains. Farmers reportedly hold nearly 20 lakh bags, but only 3–4 lakh bags are expected to be traded this season, leaving a sizeable carry-forward stock of around 16 lakh bags. Production for the current season is estimated at 90–92 lakh bags, lower than last year’s 1.10 crore bags, with Gujarat expected at 42–45 lakh bags and Rajasthan 48–50 lakh bags. Global production is also mixed: China’s output has been revised down to 70–80 thousand tonnes, while Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan are expected to produce 9–12 thousand tonnes each. Jeera exports during Apr–Sep 2025 fell 14.51% to 1,01,898.64 tonnes, although September shipments improved both YoY and MoM. The market witnessed short covering, with open interest falling 3.68% to 3,063 while prices rose by 165. Jeera is getting support at 21,240, and a break below could drag prices to 20,970. Resistance is at 21,760, above which levels of 22,010 may be tested.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 20970-22010.

* Jeera gained as weather issues and delayed sowing are keeping cumin prices strong.

* However, upside seen limited due to comfortable supplies and tepid export interest amid adequate existing stocks.

* Gujarat, is seeing one of the slowest sowing seasons in years because fields are not ready.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 21108.05 Rupees gained by 0.07 percent.

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