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Gold

Gold futures slipped 0.73% yesterday to settle at 1,06,417, weighed by profit booking after recent gains driven by expectations of U.S. monetary easing and safe-haven demand. Softer U.S. economic data added strength to bullion earlier in the week, with private sector job additions falling short of forecasts, job cuts exceeding estimates, and initial jobless claims climbing to a two-month high. These signals reinforced bets that the Federal Reserve will resume its rate-cutting cycle this month, with markets pricing in a 98% chance of a 25-bps cut and projecting up to three reductions this year. Meanwhile, concerns about the Fed’s autonomy also underpinned sentiment as political influence on monetary policy could stoke inflation expectations. On the physical side, Indian demand picked up modestly ahead of the upcoming Dussehra and Diwali festivals, with dealers charging premiums of up to $4 per ounce over official prices, compared to last week’s $2 discount to $3 premium range. In China, bullion traded at par to $5 premium, while in Hong Kong and Singapore premiums held near $2.50. Global demand trends remained mixed — the World Gold Council reported a 3% y/y increase in Q2 2025 to 1,248.8 tons, largely supported by a 78% jump in investment demand and ETF inflows, even as jewellery consumption fell 14% to its lowest since 2020. Technically, gold is under long liquidation as open interest dropped 4.62% to 18,078 contracts while prices fell 778. Support is seen at 1,05,865 and further at 1,05,320, while resistance is placed at 1,06,890 and higher at 1,07,370.

Trading Ideas:

*  Gold trading range for the day is 105320-107370.

*  Gold dropped on profit booking after prices gained amid expectations of lower interest rates by Fed.

*  The market is now pricing in a 98% chance of a 25 basis-point rate cut this month, CME Group's FedWatch tool showed.

*  Several Fed officials said labour market worries continue to animate their beliefs that rate cuts are imminent.

Silver

Silver futures slipped 1.55% yesterday to close at 1,23,920 as investors booked profits after a strong rally driven by expectations of U.S. monetary easing. Markets are now pricing in nearly a 98% probability of a 25 bps Federal Reserve rate cut this month, with recent U.S. data showing job openings falling more than expected to 7.181 million in July. While macroeconomic uncertainty and safe-haven demand supported bullion, profit-taking capped further upside. Broader concerns regarding Fed independence, ongoing trade frictions, and geopolitical risks also lent underlying support. On the industrial side, silver demand remains robust, particularly from China’s booming solar sector, where solar cell exports surged over 70% in the first half of 2025, led by strong shipments to India. Industrial momentum was further supported by renewed U.S.-China trade talks, improving sentiment across the metals sector. Investment flows into silver also stayed strong, with global ETP inflows at 95 million ounces in the first half of 2025, pushing total holdings to 1.13 billion ounces—just 7% below the all-time high of February 2021.The global silver market is forecast to post a fifth consecutive supply deficit in 2025, with industrial fabrication projected to hit a record 700 Moz.  Technically, silver is under long liquidation as open interest dropped sharply by 9.01% to 18,681 contracts while prices fell 1,952. Support lies at 1,23,280 and then 1,22,640, while resistance is seen at 1,24,755 and higher at 1,25,590.

Trading Ideas:

*  Silver trading range for the day is 122640-125590.

*  Silver slipped as investors locked in profits after prices rallied as traders increased bets on Fed rate cuts.

*  Data showed US job openings fell more than expected to 7.181 million in July.

*  US Initial jobless claims jumped by 8,000 from the previous week to 237,000 on the last period of August, the most in over two months.

Crude oil

Crude oil futures slipped 0.41% yesterday to settle at 5,611 as traders awaited the outcome of the upcoming OPEC+ meeting, where producers are expected to discuss further output hikes. The group is reportedly considering unwinding part of its 1.65 million bpd voluntary cuts, equal to around 1.6% of global demand, in a bid to regain market share. This would add to the previously agreed 2.2 million bpd rise between April and September, plus an additional 300,000 bpd for the UAE. However, actual output growth has lagged due to past overproduction adjustments and capacity constraints in some members. In the U.S., production surged to a record 13.58 million bpd in June, up 133,000 bpd, while domestic demand showed strength with product supplied climbing to 21 million bpd, its highest since October 2024. The latest EIA data reflected a mixed inventory picture: crude stocks rose by 2.4 million barrels to 420.7 million, against expectations of a draw, while Cushing inventories increased by 1.6 million barrels. Gasoline stocks fell sharply by 3.8 million barrels, suggesting firm consumption, but distillate inventories climbed 1.7 million barrels against forecasts for a decline. Refinery runs dipped slightly, with utilization rates easing to 94.3%. Technically, crude oil is under long liquidation as open interest fell 3.64% to 11,119 contracts while prices eased by 23. Support lies at 5,559 and further at 5,507, while resistance is seen at 5,645 and higher at 5,679.

Trading Ideas:

*  Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5507-5679.

*  Crude oil dropped amid concerns that OPEC+ may increase supply.

*  US crude inventories rose by 0.6 million barrels last week, defying expectations of a 3.4 million-barrel draw – API

*  U.S. crude oil production hit a record high in June, rising 133,000 barrels per day to 13.58 million bpd - EI

Natural gas

Natural gas futures edged higher by 1.19% to settle at 272.4 yesterday, supported by another drop in daily output and forecasts pointing to firmer near-term demand. Still, the broader price upside remains capped amid near-record production levels, comfortable storage, and expectations of milder weather. Data from LSEG showed that average gas output in the Lower 48 states slipped to 107.2 bcfd so far in September, compared with August’s record 108.3 bcfd. On a daily basis, production was set to fall further to an eight-week low of 105.7 bcfd, well below the record 109.6 bcfd reached in late July. Weather forecasts through mid-September indicate largely normal conditions, suggesting limited cooling demand. LSEG projected total U.S. gas demand, including exports, to ease from 104.6 bcfd this week to 102.3 bcfd next week. Storage dynamics also shaped sentiment—U.S. utilities added 55 bcf to inventories in the week ending August 29, broadly in line with expectations. This was significantly above the 13 bcf build in the same week last year, reflecting record output levels offsetting strong demand and elevated LNG exports. Storage now stands at 3,272 bcf, 2.2% below year-ago levels but 5.6% above the five-year average. Technically, the market is under short covering as open interest dropped 8.92% to 21,921 contracts while prices gained 3.2. Support is seen at 267.4 and then 262.5, while resistance is placed at 276.8 and higher at 281.3.

Trading Ideas:

*  Naturalgas trading range for the day is 262.5-281.3.

*  Natural gas edged up amid another drop in daily output.

*  Energy firms in the US added 55 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage to 3,272 bcf during the week

*  Average gas output in the Lower 48 states has fallen to 107.2 billion cubic feet per day so far in September.

Copper

Copper futures eased 0.71% yesterday to settle at 899.75, pressured by lingering demand concerns that outweighed tightening supply signals. China’s manufacturing sector contracted for the fifth consecutive month in August, highlighting weak domestic demand, though the services sector showed resilience with the fastest expansion in 15 months. On the supply side, China’s refined copper production is set for a rare decline, the first since 2016, as new tax rules reduce scrap copper availability. Inventory trends painted a mixed picture. LME copper stocks climbed to a three-month high of 158,900 mt, while SHFE copper inventories dropped 2.39% to 79,748 mt. COMEX inventories surged to 277,843 mt, the highest since 2004, indicating ample near-term supply. Globally, copper inventories slipped marginally to 12,428 mt. On the production front, Chile registered a slight 0.3% y/y rise in July output to 445,214 mt, while Peru’s production rose 7.1% in June, driven by robust performance at Las Bambas mines. According to the ICSG, the refined copper market showed a surplus of 36,000 mt in June versus 79,000 mt in May. For the first half of 2025, the market ran a surplus of 251,000 mt, smaller than the 395,000 mt surplus a year earlier, suggesting tighter balances ahead. Technically, copper is under long liquidation as open interest fell 8.32% to 6,090 contracts alongside a 6.45 drop in prices. Support is seen at 898 and then 896, while resistance lies at 902.4 and higher at 904.8.

Trading Ideas:

*  Copper trading range for the day is 896-904.8.

*  Copper dropped as demand worries overshadowed supply constraints from declining Chinese output.

*  China's manufacturing activity shrank for a fifth straight month in August, suggesting sluggish domestic demand.

*  Top producer China's refined copper production this month is set for a rare fall, the first for the period since 2016.

Zinc

Zinc futures slipped 0.71% yesterday to close at 273.3 as weak demand signals from China, the world’s top consumer, weighed on sentiment. Concerns over slowing Chinese industrial activity continue to cloud the demand outlook. However, losses were capped on expectations of possible production cuts by Chinese miners and refiners, aligning with earlier moves from global producers. Teck Resources’ Red Dog mine reported a 20% drop in Q1 output, while Nyrstar announced a 25% annual cut, both tightening supply fundamentals. On the inventory front, LME zinc stocks have dropped sharply by 130,000 tonnes since the beginning of the year, now at just 42,000 tonnes, signaling tighter global availability. In contrast, Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories rose 1.3% last week, reflecting short-term domestic supply additions. In Europe, business activity showed improvement as new orders rose for the first time since May 2024, potentially supporting industrial demand in the region. Data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) indicated the global zinc market deficit narrowed to 27,200 tons in June from 31,400 tons in May. However, for the first half of 2025, the refined zinc market posted a surplus of 47,000 tons. Technically, zinc is under long liquidation as open interest fell 2.24% to 3,672 lots alongside a 1.95 price decline. Support lies at 272.1 and further at 270.7, while resistance is seen at 275.1 and then 276.7.

Trading Ideas:

*  Zinc trading range for the day is 270.7-276.7.

*  Zinc falls as weak China industrial activity clouds demand outlook.

*  However downside seen limited amid likelihood of capacity cuts by Chinese miners and refiners.

*  LME zinc stocks have slid 76% so far this year.

Aluminium

Aluminium futures slipped 0.67% to close at 253.35 yesterday, weighed by persistent concerns over U.S. tariff policies that have curbed factory activity across parts of Asia. Still, losses were cushioned by optimism surrounding U.S. interest rate cuts and upbeat Chinese data, where a private survey indicated factory activity in August grew at the fastest pace in five months on the back of rising new orders. This improvement in Chinese demand prospects lent some support to sentiment in the market. On the supply-demand balance, the global aluminium market showed a surplus of 183,100 tons in June as production at 6.094 million tons exceeded consumption of 5.911 million tons. However, in the first half of 2025, the market posted a marginal deficit of 36,700 tons, reflecting a tighter balance over the broader period. World output rose 2.5% YoY in July to 6.373 million tons, according to the International Aluminium Institute. On the supply side, disruptions also added to market uncertainty. Guinea revoked all mining licenses and transferred them to a state-run firm, a move that may restrict bauxite supply critical for Emirates Global Aluminium. Additionally, South32 announced the closure of its Mozal smelter in Mozambique due to power issues, removing Africa’s second-largest smelter from the market. Technically, aluminium is under long liquidation as open interest dropped 3.01% to 3,993 lots, with prices easing 1.7. Support is placed at 252.7 and then 252.1, while resistance is seen at 254.4 and higher at 255.5.

Trading Ideas:

*  Aluminium trading range for the day is 252.1-255.5.

*  Aluminium dropped amid worries about U.S. tariffs, which helped to dampen factory activity in parts of Asia.

*  The global primary aluminium market experienced a supply surplus in June.

*  China's factory activity in August expanded at the quickest pace in five months on the back of rising new orders.

Turmeric

Turmeric futures traded firm yesterday, closing 0.63% higher at 12,458 as recent rainfall damaged standing crops across major producing belts, adding concerns over supply tightness. The IMD’s forecast of normal to below-normal rainfall in September in parts of South India has further raised worries among growers. Stocks in Warangal are nearly exhausted, with no fresh arrivals in recent days, while low inflows and cautious selling are keeping prices supported. On the acreage front, favourable monsoon during the sowing season is likely to drive turmeric cultivation higher by 15–20% compared to last year, with the area under turmeric in 2024–25 already recorded at 3.30 lakh hectares, about 10% higher than the previous season. Fresh crop arrivals at the Duggirala market continue to fetch a premium over older stock, supported by superior quality and strong demand. Daily trade volumes remain healthy at 1,000–1,200 bags, with nearly 50–55% of the new crop already traded. On the export front, shipments rose by 3.12% in April–June 2025 to 47,949.56 tonnes, though June exports fell by 7.93% y/y and sharply by 28.21% m/m. At Nizamabad, a key spot market, prices closed steady at 13,355.3. Technically, the market is under short covering as open interest fell by 0.4% to 17,535 lots while prices gained 78. Immediate support lies at 12,324, with next support at 12,192, while resistance is seen at 12,566 and higher at 12,676.

Trading Ideas:

*  Turmeric trading range for the day is 12192-12676.

*  Turmeric gains as recent rainfall has caused damage to standing turmeric crops in major growing regions.

*  IMD forecast of normal to below-normal rainfall in September in some parts of South India has raised concerns for turmeric growers.

*  Turmeric stocks held by farmers in Warangal are nearly depleted.

*  In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 13355.3 Rupees dropped by 0 percent.

Jeera

Jeera futures gained 1.17% yesterday to settle at 19,455, supported by the GST Council’s decision to lower GST to 5%, a move expected to benefit FMCG exports and domestic consumption. However, the upside appears capped as weak domestic and export demand continues post-retail season. Comfortable supplies and sluggish foreign buying are weighing on sentiment, with traders noting that nearly 20 lakh bags of cumin are still held by farmers. Only 3–4 lakh bags are likely to be traded by the season’s end, leaving an estimated carry-forward stock of 16 lakh bags. Production prospects for the current year remain steady, with estimates at 90–92 lakh bags versus 1.10 crore bags last year. In Gujarat, output is pegged at 42–45 lakh bags, while Rajasthan is expected to produce 48–50 lakh bags. Globally, adverse weather has trimmed cumin production in key origins—China’s output is estimated at 70–80 thousand tonnes against earlier expectations of 1 lakh, while Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan are projected at 9–12 thousand tonnes each. Despite these constraints abroad, India’s exports have been subdued. Shipments in April–June 2025 fell sharply by 19.57% y/y to 59,247.76 tonnes. On a monthly basis, June exports rose 10.26% y/y to 16,322.06 tonnes but declined 29.67% m/m, indicating volatile overseas demand. Technically, the market is in short covering mode as open interest dropped 2.98% to 4,107 contracts while prices rose 225. Support is seen at 19,280 and then 19,100, while resistance is placed at 19,570 and higher at 19,680.

Trading Ideas:

*  Jeera trading range for the day is 19100-19680.

*  Jeera gained as support seen after GST council lowers GST rate to 5% which will support FMCG exports & domestic demand.

*  However upside seen limited due to weak domestic and export demand post retail season.

*  Only 3-4 lakh bags are expected to be traded by the end of the season, leaving a carry-forward stock of about 16 lakh bags

*  In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 19618.95 Rupees gained by 0.3 percent.

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