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Cottoncandy

Cottoncandy futures settled higher by 1.07% at Rs.55,030 amid concerns over shrinking domestic output and rising import estimates. The Cotton Association of India (CAI) lowered its production forecast by 4 lakh bales to 291.30 lakh bales (170 kg each), largely due to lower output in Maharashtra. This downward revision, based on state association inputs as of March-end, has further tightened supply expectations. Total supply until the end of March is estimated at 306.83 lakh bales, which includes 25 lakh bales of imports and 30.19 lakh bales of opening stock. Meanwhile, CAI pegs cotton exports for 2024-25 at 16 lakh bales, down significantly from 28.36 lakh bales in the previous year. Closing stocks are also forecasted to dip to 23.49 lakh bales by September 2025, down from 30.19 lakh bales the previous year. In contrast, imports are expected to surge to 33 lakh bales from 15.20 lakh bales last season, owing to the persistent domestic supply shortfall and flat consumption trends. Globally, the 2024/25 U.S. cotton balance sheet shows a slight downgrade in exports by 100,000 bales, raising ending stocks to 5 million bales, with the average upland farm price holding at 63 cents per pound. Global production and consumption are trimmed, notably for China and Indonesia, while world stocks have been revised upwards. Technically, Cottoncandy is under fresh buying, with a 0.81% increase in open interest to 249 and prices up Rs.580. Immediate support is seen at Rs.55,030, with resistance also at the same level. A break above could pave the way toward testing Rs.55,854.

BUY COTTONCANDY MAY @ 54800 SL 54500 TGT 55200-55500. MCX

Cocudakl

SELL COCUDAKL MAY @ 2920 SL 2960 TGT 2880-2850. NCDEX

KAPAS

BUY KAPAS APR @ 1445 SL 1435 TGT 1455-1465. NCDEX