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Gold 

Gold prices declined by 1.22%, settling at Rs.142,402, as easing safe-haven demand and renewed inflation concerns weighed on sentiment. Although geopolitical tensions intensified after fresh exchanges of attacks between the US and Iran around the Strait of Hormuz, both sides later agreed to suspend further military action ahead of peace talks scheduled in Doha this week. Rising crude oil prices following the conflict revived inflation worries, limiting the appeal of non-yielding assets. Meanwhile, US PCE inflation data broadly met market expectations, prompting investors to slightly reduce expectations of additional Federal Reserve rate hikes. Market participants are now closely watching the upcoming US monthly employment report and ISM Manufacturing PMI for fresh guidance on the Fed's monetary policy outlook. Physical gold demand presented a mixed picture across major Asian markets. India witnessed gold trading at a premium for the first time in nearly six weeks as the recent price correction encouraged buying interest, although overall retail demand remained subdued. In contrast, Chinese bullion continued to trade at discounts despite the People's Bank of China extending its gold reserve purchases for the nineteenth consecutive month. However, China's net gold imports through Hong Kong declined sharply during May. London vault holdings increased marginally to 9,392 tonnes by the end of May. The World Gold Council reported that global gold ETFs recorded net outflows of US$2 billion in May, reducing total assets under management to US$604 billion, although year-to-date inflows remain firmly positive at nearly US$17 billion. Technically, Gold remains under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising 2.54%, indicating fresh short positions. Immediate support is seen at Rs.141,450, with further weakness potentially extending towards Rs.140,490. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs.143,775, and a sustained breakout above this level could open the door for a move towards Rs.145,140.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 140490-145140.

*  Gold fell as renewed exchanges of attacks between the US and Iran lifted oil prices and rekindled inflation concerns.

*  The conflict escalated since Thursday, with Iran targeting a container ship, a vessel carrying Qatari oil, and military bases in Kuwait and Bahrain.

*  US PCE inflation broadly matched expectations, leading investors to slightly pare back bets on Federal Reserve rate hikes this year.

Silver 

Silver prices declined by 0.37%, settling at Rs.222,634, as the stronger US dollar, expectations of additional US Federal Reserve rate hikes, and persistent geopolitical uncertainty weighed on investor sentiment. US inflation accelerated above 4% in May, reaching its highest level in three years, mainly due to higher energy prices linked to tensions in West Asia. The stronger inflation data reinforced market expectations that the Federal Reserve may continue its policy tightening cycle. Fed officials also maintained a cautious stance, with policymakers emphasizing that inflation remains well above the central bank's 2% target despite some easing in services inflation. According to CME FedWatch, traders are now pricing in three rate hikes this year, with expectations for a September increase rising significantly. Geopolitical risks also remained elevated after the UN International Maritime Organisation suspended ship escort operations through the Strait of Hormuz following reports of another attack on a commercial vessel, reviving concerns over regional stability. Fundamental data reflected mixed trends in the physical silver market. Silver holdings in London vaults increased by 0.6% during May to 27,611 tonnes, valued at approximately US$67.3 billion. In contrast, India's silver imports plunged sharply after the government imposed tighter import restrictions and raised import duties. Imports dropped 87% in value and 94% in volume compared to the previous year, reaching the lowest level since February 2023. The government has expanded restrictions to include silver grain and powder while increasing import duties to 15%, aiming to reduce precious metals imports and ease pressure on foreign exchange reserves amid elevated crude oil prices. Technically, Silver remains under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising 6.21%, indicating fresh short positions. Immediate support is placed at Rs.220,670, with further downside likely towards Rs.218,710 if this level is breached. On the upside, resistance is seen at Rs.224,420, and a sustained move above this level could extend gains towards Rs.226,210.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 218710-226210.

* Silver dropped amid rising expectations of further Fed rate hikes, and lingering geopolitical uncertainty in the West Asia.

* Data indicated that US inflation climbed above 4% in May for the first time in three years.

* Fed’s Goolsbee said inflation pressures remain elevated despite some improvement in services inflation

Crude Oil

Crude Oil prices gained 2.30%, settling at Rs.6,728, as renewed military exchanges between the US and Iran highlighted the fragile nature of their interim peace agreement, keeping geopolitical risk premium elevated. However, gains were capped after both countries agreed to resume negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz, raising hopes of preserving the ceasefire and ensuring smoother energy shipments through the strategic waterway. Adding to supply optimism, Saudi Aramco resumed crude loadings at its Ras Tanura export terminal after a prolonged suspension, supporting expectations of improving regional oil exports. Meanwhile, US refining capacity declined by 263,000 barrels per day during 2025 due to refinery conversions and plant closures, reflecting ongoing structural changes in the refining sector. CFTC data also showed that money managers reduced their net long positions in US crude futures and options, indicating a more cautious market outlook. Fundamental data remained supportive after the US Energy Information Administration reported a 6.088 million-barrel decline in crude oil inventories, exceeding market expectations for a 4.5 million-barrel draw. Crude stocks at the Cushing delivery hub also declined significantly, signalling tighter crude availability. However, gasoline and distillate inventories posted larger-than-expected increases, while refinery throughput eased slightly and net crude imports rose modestly. On the supply front, OPEC production fell to its lowest level in more than two decades during May as sanctions, shipping disruptions, and conflict-related export losses sharply reduced Iranian and Gulf producers' exports, offsetting planned OPEC+ production increases. Technically, Crude Oil is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining 5.26% while prices advanced. Immediate support is placed at Rs.6,621, with further downside seen near Rs.6,513 if this level is breached. On the upside, resistance is located at Rs.6,792, and a sustained move above this level could extend gains towards Rs.6,855.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 6513-6855.

* Crude oil rose after attacks by the U.S. and Iran underscored the fragility of their interim peace deal.

* Iran and the U.S. agreed to renew talks over the strait, raising hopes of saving the peace deal.

* Saudi oil giant Aramco resumed crude oil loadings at its Ras Tanura terminal, after they were halted for nearly four months.

Natural Gas

Natural Gas prices declined 3.16%, settling at Rs.303, as abundant storage levels and comfortable supply conditions weighed on market sentiment. The decline came despite expectations of stronger seasonal demand driven by hotter weather and rising LNG exports. Russia's natural gas production increased 5.2% year-on-year to 259 billion cubic metres during January-May, highlighting continued robust global supply. In the US, gas inventories are expected to remain around 5.9% above normal for the week ended June 26, compared with 5.7% above normal in the previous week, reflecting ample storage availability. However, forecasts for above-normal temperatures through mid-July are expected to increase electricity demand for air conditioning, providing some support to natural gas consumption as around 40% of US power generation is fueled by natural gas. Demand expectations remain constructive over the coming weeks. LSEG forecasts total US natural gas demand, including exports, to rise from 102.8 bcfd this week to 105.5 bcfd next week and further to 108.6 bcfd within two weeks. Feedgas deliveries to the nine major US LNG export facilities also increased to 17.3 bcfd during June, supported by higher flows to the Golden Pass LNG project in Texas. Meanwhile, the US Energy Information Administration reported a 76 billion cubic feet storage injection for the week ended June 19, closely matching market expectations and the five-year seasonal average. Looking ahead, the EIA expects both US natural gas production and consumption to reach record levels through 2027, supported by expanding LNG exports and steady domestic demand. Technically, Natural Gas remains under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising 24.9%, indicating fresh short positions. Immediate support is seen at Rs.298.1, with further downside towards Rs.293.2 if selling continues. Resistance is placed at Rs.310.8, and a sustained move above this level could push prices higher towards Rs.318.6.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 293.2-318.6.

* Natural gas fell amid ample amounts of gas in storage.

* LSEG projected Lower 48 gas demand would rise to 108.6 bcfd in two weeks

* Average LNG feedgas rose to 17.3 bcfd in June from 17.1 bcfd in May

Copper 

Copper prices declined 0.55%, settling at Rs.1,259.7, as expectations of tighter US Federal Reserve monetary policy continued to weigh on the outlook for industrial metals demand. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh reaffirmed the central bank’s commitment to controlling inflation, reinforcing a hawkish policy stance that has reduced expectations for US interest rate cuts this year. Investors are now awaiting the upcoming US monthly jobs report for further clarity on economic strength and the future direction of monetary policy. Despite the cautious macro outlook, Goldman Sachs maintained a constructive long-term view on copper, citing stronger demand from electric vehicles, renewable energy, defence spending, and artificial intelligence infrastructure. The bank also raised its copper price forecasts through 2027, supported by expectations of persistent global supply deficits. Fundamentally, China's industrial profit growth moderated in May, although refined copper production increased 2.2% year-on-year to 1.26 million tonnes. At the same time, LME copper inventories declined to 339,100 tonnes, the lowest level since March, while Shanghai Futures Exchange stocks fell 5.7% to their lowest level since December. However, the LME cash contract continued to trade at a discount to the three-month contract, indicating no immediate supply tightness. The International Copper Study Group reported a 145,000-tonne global refined copper deficit in April as consumption exceeded production. China's unwrought copper imports also rose to a seven-month high during April, supported by robust investment in power grid infrastructure, while copper concentrate imports declined sharply. Goldman Sachs and Citi both upgraded their copper price forecasts, reflecting tighter mine supply and stronger long-term demand expectations. Technically, Copper is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest declining 2.63% alongside lower prices. Immediate support is placed at Rs.1,252.7, with further downside likely towards Rs.1,245.7 if selling pressure continues. Resistance is seen at Rs.1,269.2, and a sustained move above this level could extend gains towards Rs.1,278.7.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1245.7-1278.7.

* Copper dropped as expectations of tighter Fed policy continued to weigh on the outlook for industrial metals demand.

* Profit growth at China’s industrial firms eased to 21.1% in May from a year earlier, compared with a 24.7% rise in April.

* LME copper stocks trickled down to 339,100 tons, the lowest since March 15.

Zinc

Zinc prices edged lower by 0.08%, settling at Rs.358.35, as a stronger US dollar and the US Federal Reserve’s hawkish monetary policy outlook continued to weigh on sentiment across industrial metals. Expectations of higher US interest rates reduced the appeal of base metals despite improving long-term demand prospects. However, downside remained limited due to tightening near-term supply conditions following production disruptions at several major mining and smelting operations. Glencore’s Kazzinc facility in Kazakhstan continues to operate at reduced capacity after an explosion, while Nexa’s Cajamarquilla smelter in Peru is gradually resuming operations following fire-related disruptions. Concerns also persist over lower output at Boliden’s Garpenberg mine after seismic activity earlier this year. Fundamentally, zinc inventories showed mixed trends. Stocks held in London Metal Exchange warehouses increased by 17,550 tonnes over the past month, while Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories also recorded a notable rise. Despite higher exchange inventories, the LME cash-to-three-month spread remained in backwardation, reflecting tight availability in the spot market. China's zinc production increased 9.4% year-on-year during May, while the country's central bank reaffirmed its commitment to maintaining accommodative monetary policy to support domestic demand and industrial activity. The International Lead and Zinc Study Group reported that the global zinc market surplus narrowed to 26,500 tonnes in April from 56,300 tonnes in March, indicating improving supply-demand balance. Goldman Sachs expects a modest global surplus in 2026 but anticipates tighter market conditions beyond 2027 as mine supply growth slows while demand continues expanding. Technically, Zinc remains under fresh selling pressure, with open interest increasing 2.31%, indicating fresh short positions entering the market. Immediate support is seen at Rs355.6, with further downside likely towards Rs.352.8 if this level is breached. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs361.0, and a sustained breakout above this level could extend gains towards Rs363.6.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 352.8-363.6.

* Zinc dropped as the US Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and a stronger US dollar continued to pressure industrial metals.

* The cash-to-three-month spread for zinc was last recorded at a backwardation of $13 per tonne on the LME.

* However downside seen limited supported by tight near-term supply conditions.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices declined 1.07%, settling at Rs329.35, as easing geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran reduced concerns over supply disruptions from the Middle East. Market sentiment improved after both countries agreed to resume talks over the Strait of Hormuz in Qatar, lowering fears of a broader conflict affecting global aluminium shipments. As immediate supply concerns eased, the London Metal Exchange cash aluminium premium shifted from a multi-year high to a discount against the three-month contract, reflecting improved near-term availability. At the same time, expectations of additional US Federal Reserve rate hikes amid persistent inflation continued to pressure the broader base metals complex by strengthening the US dollar. Fundamental indicators presented a mixed outlook. Aluminium inventories at the Shanghai Futures Exchange declined 2.7%, indicating steady domestic consumption, while the International Aluminium Institute reported that global primary aluminium production fell 1.7% year-on-year in May to 6.15 million tonnes. China's aluminium production, however, increased 1.7% year-on-year to 3.89 million tonnes, marking the ninth consecutive month of output growth, supported by previously elevated international prices. China's imports of unwrought aluminium and products rose 6.9% in March, while exports increased 5.7% in May, highlighting continued strength in trade activity. Goldman Sachs maintained a constructive long-term outlook, forecasting a larger global aluminium deficit in 2026 due to slower recovery of smelting operations in the UAE and Bahrain, with supply tightness expected to persist into 2027. Technically, Aluminium is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest declining 14.62% alongside falling prices, indicating liquidation of existing long positions. Immediate support is placed at Rs326.7, with further downside likely towards Rs324.1 if selling pressure intensifies. On the upside, resistance is seen at Rs333.2, and a sustained move above this level could extend gains towards Rs337.1.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 324.1-337.1.

* Aluminium slipped on an easing of fears that weekend tit-for-tat strikes between the U.S. and Iran would escalate.

* Premium for cash aluminium contract on the LME has flipped from a 19-year high over the three-month forward to a discount.

* Aluminium inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 2.7% from last release on Jun 18.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices surged 3.21%, settling at Rs17,122, primarily on short covering after recent declines caused by heavy arrivals during the peak harvesting season. Earlier weakness was driven by increased selling from farmers seeking to liquidate stocks, as faster arrivals across major mandis outpaced immediate buying demand. Substantial inventories, estimated at around 1.13 lakh bags in Warangal, also kept buyers cautious. In addition, reports of rhizome rot and quality deterioration in some arrivals pressured sellers to accept lower prices. However, the recent recovery reflected renewed buying interest as market participants reassessed supply conditions. Fundamentally, the outlook remains balanced. The advance of the southwest monsoon across southern India has improved prospects for the upcoming sowing season, with above-normal rainfall expected to support acreage expansion during 2026-27. Early indications suggest higher cultivation in major producing states following the previous season's elevated prices. While carry-forward stocks are estimated at around 15 lakh bags, significantly lower than last season's 20 lakh bags, the pace of stock depletion has slowed as some buyers shift to cheaper substitutes or delay purchases awaiting further price corrections. Export performance remained steady, with India's turmeric exports increasing 0.6% year-on-year in April 2026. Strong demand from China, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Brazil, and Japan offset weaker shipments to the UAE and the United States. Bangladesh remained the largest importer, while growing demand for IPM-certified turmeric from the European Union and active procurement by Bangladesh for finger-grade turmeric continued to support market sentiment. Technically, Turmeric is witnessing fresh buying, with open interest increasing 1.86%, indicating new long positions entering the market. Immediate support is placed at Rs16,782, followed by Rs16,442. On the upside, resistance is seen at Rs17,326, and a sustained breakout above this level could extend the rally towards Rs17,530.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 16442-17530.

* Turmeric gained on short covering after prices amid increased selling pressure from farmers seeking to liquidate stocks.

* While cumulative exports are up, immediate fresh orders from Europe and the U.S. slowed.

* The Southwest Monsoon's advance into Southern India has improved sentiment for the sowing season.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 16247.75 Rupees gained by 2.01 percent.

Jeera 

Jeera prices advanced 1.88%, settling at Rs20,580, supported by short covering and tightening supplies of premium-quality bold seeds. While overall crop availability remains adequate, export-grade high-purity cumin has become increasingly scarce as arrivals continue to decline across key markets such as Unjha in Gujarat and major producing regions of Rajasthan. The easing of peak post-harvest arrivals has strengthened the bargaining power of stockists, while unseasonal rainfall, high winds, and dust storms affected seed quality by increasing moisture content and reducing color, creating a wider price gap between average-grade and premium export-quality produce. Farmers and traders are also releasing stocks gradually, contributing to tighter spot availability. Fundamental factors continue to provide mixed support. Domestic spice processors are maintaining a hand-to-mouth purchasing strategy instead of aggressive forward buying, resulting in stable but measured demand. Export sentiment has improved as European and North American buyers return to the market seeking residue-compliant, high-quality lots. Concerns over blight disease in parts of Gujarat have also reduced the availability of superior-quality produce. Market participants are closely monitoring the southwest monsoon, as early rainfall patterns will influence soil moisture and long-term acreage expectations for the next planting season. Production estimates for the current season have been revised lower to around 90–92 lakh bags, compared with 1.10 crore bags last year, reflecting reduced sowing. Although India's jeera exports declined 18% year-on-year in April due to a sharp fall in shipments to the UAE, stronger demand from Morocco, the United States, Mexico, and Brazil partially offset the weakness. Technically, Jeera is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining 3.93% while prices moved higher. Immediate support is placed at Rs20,180, followed by Rs19,780. Resistance is seen at Rs20,800, and a sustained breakout above this level could extend gains towards Rs21,020

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 19780-21020.

* Jeera prices gained amid a rapid a rapid tightening in the supply of premium-quality bold seeds.

* While total physical crop availability is stable, the export-grade high-purity bold seed supply is shrinking much faster than anticipated.

* Daily arrivals across major trading spots have begun to taper off significantly.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 20577.7 Rupees gained by 0.06 percent.

Views express by all participants are for information & academic purpose only. Kindly read disclaimer before referring below views