Copper Report 29-06-2026 by Kedia Advisory
Copper prices witnessed a healthy correction during June after hitting a record high of Rs.1,414/kg on 13
May and forming a lower high near Rs.1,387.20/kg on 3 June. Thereafter, prices declined to around
Rs.1,241/kg on 24 June, registering a correction of nearly 10.6%, primarily driven by profit booking, a
stronger US dollar and uncertainty surrounding the US Section 232 copper import investigation. Despite
the correction, the long-term fundamentals remain constructive. LME three-month copper recovered to
US$13,322/tonne during the last trading session on short covering, while SHFE copper futures gained 1.16%
to 102,740 yuan/tonne with open interest declining by 3,193 lots, indicating bearish positions were being
unwound. The COMEX-LME arbitrage premium has narrowed sharply from nearly US$690/tonne to around
US$200/tonne, reflecting improving physical supply into the US market ahead of the June 30 tariff
decision. On the supply side, Chile recorded its weakest copper production in 23 years, while mine
disruptions and low treatment charges continue to tighten concentrate availability. Longer-term
demand also remains robust, with AI data centres expected to consume an additional 110,000 tonnes of
copper in 2026, and UBS forecasting a refined copper deficit of 520,000 tonnes this year while
maintaining a US$14,000/tonne target by September 2026. These structural supply-demand dynamics
continue to provide a supportive medium-term outlook despite short-term macro headwinds.
Technically, copper has corrected nearly 10.6% from the Rs.1,387 high made on 3 June, exactly in line with
the anticipated reversal after failing to sustain above resistance. Prices have now found strong support
near Rs.1,264, a level that also acted as an important demand zone during April-May, reinforcing its
technical significance. RSI has started recovering from the oversold region, indicating selling pressure is
gradually fading, while the MACD remains below the signal line but is clearly losing bearish momentum,
suggesting downside momentum is weakening. Volatility is expected to remain elevated in the near
term; however, unless prices break and sustain below Rs.1,240, the broader trend is likely to remain
range-bound. Over the next one month, copper is expected to consolidate within the Rs.1,255–1,310/kg
range, with a gradual retracement towards Rs.1,290–1,295/kg possible as buying interest improves. A
decisive close below Rs.1,240 would negate this recovery outlook and could expose prices to deeper
corrective levels, whereas holding above this support keeps the probability of a technical rebound
intact.
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