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Gold

Gold prices yesterday settled higher by 0.45% at 118113, supported by safe-haven demand and dovish expectations from the Federal Reserve. Investor appetite for bullion strengthened amid the ongoing partial US government shutdown, which is threatening jobs and delaying crucial economic data, including the non-farm payrolls report. Weaker private labor data also reinforced bets for two more Fed rate cuts this year despite sticky inflation. On the global side, the People’s Bank of China continued its gold purchases for the 10th consecutive month, underscoring central bank demand. However, China’s net gold imports via Hong Kong dropped by 39.11% in August, reflecting weaker wholesale demand as investors shifted attention towards equities. Still, imports are expected to pick up toward the end of September. In India, physical gold demand rose despite record prices as festive buying boosted purchases, with dealers charging premiums of up to $9 per ounce over domestic rates. Imports of gold and silver nearly doubled in September compared to August. Meanwhile, Swiss customs data showed exports to China jumped 254% in August to 35 tons, while supplies to India also climbed, partly offsetting a sharp decline in shipments to the United States. Technically, the market is under fresh buying with open interest gaining 0.61% to 15,587 while prices rose by 525 rupees. Gold is now finding support at 117145 and a break below could test 116180, while resistance is placed at 118710, with a move above opening the door for 119310.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 116180-119310.

* Gold rose supported by safe-haven demand and dovish expectations from the Federal Reserve.

* Investor appetite for safety has been heightened by the partial US government shutdown, which threatens thousands of federal jobs.

* Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan urged caution on further interest rate reductions.

Silver

Silver prices yesterday settled higher by 0.71% at 145744, supported by expectations of further US rate cuts and safe-haven buying amid ongoing government shutdown concerns. Weak macroeconomic data further underpinned sentiment, with the ISM Services PMI falling sharply to 50 in September from 52 in August, signaling stagnation in the services sector. ADP employment data also showed a surprise decline of 32,000 jobs against forecasts of a 50,000 gain, reinforcing signs of labor market weakness and boosting bets on additional Federal Reserve policy easing. However, caution remained as Fed officials warned against moving too quickly due to persistent inflation risks. From the supply-demand perspective, silver gained support from the Silver Institute’s projection of a global deficit for the fifth consecutive year in 2025. The report estimates production at 844 million ounces, still about 100 million ounces short of demand. Retail investment trends showed divergence, with Europe recovering modestly from a low base, and India showing a 7% year-on-year increase in demand amid strong price expectations. The Silver Institute noted the 2025 deficit could narrow by 21% due to slightly higher supply and softer demand, though coin and bar demand is forecast to rebound by 7% after steep declines in 2024. Technically, silver is under fresh buying, with open interest rising 1.63% to 18,063 alongside a price gain of 1024 rupees. Support is seen at 142815, with a break lower opening 139880, while resistance lies at 147830, and a move above could extend gains toward 149910.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 139880-149910.

* Silver gained supported by expectations of further US rate cuts and uncertainty from the government shutdown.

* The ISM Services PMI fell to 50 in September 2025 from 52 in August, signalling the services sector stalled.

* ADP reported a surprise drop of 32,000 private-sector jobs in September, reinforcing signs of labor market weakness.

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled lower by -0.98% at 5439 as oversupply concerns resurfaced on reports that OPEC+ may increase production from next month, adding to pressure from the ongoing U.S. government shutdown and weaker seasonal demand. Iraq, OPEC’s second-largest producer, is planning to ramp up its production capacity to 5.5 million barrels per day by year-end from the current 4.4 million bpd, further heightening supply concerns. Additionally, Iraq resumed crude exports from the Kurdistan region via the Iraq-Turkey pipeline after a long suspension, restoring flows of around 180,000–190,000 bpd to Turkey’s Ceyhan port. On the inventory front, the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a build of 1.8 million barrels in crude stocks to 416.5 million, versus expectations of a smaller 1 million-barrel rise. Gasoline inventories also rose sharply by 4.1 million barrels to 220.7 million, far exceeding forecasts, while distillate stocks increased by 578,000 barrels against expectations of a draw. Refinery crude runs fell by 308,000 bpd with utilization rates down to 91.4%, adding to the bearish undertone. Net U.S. crude imports also edged higher by 71,000 bpd. Despite this, OPEC’s monthly report maintained its relatively high oil demand growth forecasts for this year and next, citing solid global economic momentum in the second half of 2025. Technically, crude oil is under fresh selling pressure as open interest rose 10.29% to 14,256 while prices slipped by 54 rupees. Support lies at 5398, with a break below opening 5358, while resistance is placed at 5470, and a move higher could test 5502.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5358-5502.

* Crude oil drops on oversupply fears amid OPEC+ output plans.

* Seasonal demand dip, refinery maintenance, and shutdown weigh on sentiment.

* IEA projects record oil surplus next year, adding bearish outlook.

Natural gas

Natural gas yesterday settled down by -3.24% at 298.3 as traders booked profits after recent gains triggered by a bullish storage report. Prices had earlier risen when U.S. government data showed a smaller-than-expected storage build, but profit-taking weighed on sentiment. Weather forecasts indicate above-normal temperatures through mid-October, keeping demand expectations moderate. Analysts noted the November contract is likely to find support around $3.40, with a trading range projected between $3.36 and $3.47. On the supply front, LSEG data showed average gas output in the Lower 48 states slipped to 106 bcfd in early October from 107.4 bcfd in September and a record 108.3 bcfd in August. At the same time, average demand, including exports, is projected to ease from 101.5 bcfd this week to 99.2 bcfd next week. U.S. LNG exports provided some support, hitting a record 9.4 million metric tons in September, surpassing August’s 9.3 million. Storage data showed an injection of 53 bcf for the week ended September 26, well below the five-year average build of 85 bcf, lifting total storage to 3.561 tcf, 0.6% above last year and 5% higher than the five-year norm. EIA projections suggest record output and demand in 2025, with LNG exports expected to rise further in 2026. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest dropping -3.83% to 21,760. Support lies at 294.3, below which prices may test 290.3, while resistance is seen at 304.6, with a potential move to 310.9 if broken.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 290.3-310.9.

* Natural gas fell as traders booked profits, after prices rose following a a smaller-than-expected storage build.

* The U.S. Energy Information Administration said energy firms added 53 bcf of gas into storage.

* Meteorologists forecast the weather will remain mostly warmer than normal through at least October 16.

Copper

Copper yesterday settled sharply higher by 3.38% at 990.05, buoyed by renewed supply concerns after multiple disruptions hit the market outlook. A major mud-flow incident at Indonesia’s Grasberg mine has forced operations to a halt, with full-scale output unlikely before early 2027. Freeport-McMoRan has already cut its 2026 sales guidance by 35%, sparking bullish sentiment. Meanwhile, LME warehouse stocks fell to just above 140,000 tons, their lowest since August, while Chile’s output slipped nearly 10% year-on-year in August following an earthquake that disrupted activity at Codelco’s El Teniente site. Despite these constraints, the global refined copper balance still reflects surpluses in certain months. The International Copper Study Group reported a 57,000-ton surplus in July, compared with a 14,000-ton deficit in June. For the first seven months of this year, the market shows a 101,000-ton surplus, narrower than the 401,000-ton surplus a year earlier. Still, supply cuts have forced banks to revise outlooks. Goldman Sachs lowered its mine supply forecasts for 2025–26, projecting losses of over half a million tons due to Grasberg disruptions. Citi has lifted its short-term copper forecast to $10,500 per ton and expects prices could rally to $12,000–14,000 next year amid a projected 400-kiloton market deficit. Technically, copper is under short covering, with open interest dropping -3.33% to 7,435 while prices gained 32.4 rupees. Immediate support is at 972.4, below which prices could test 954.8, while resistance is seen at 1000.6, and a break above may take it towards 1011.2.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 954.8-1011.2.

* Copper rose to record high as Grasberg mine accident in Indonesia halts production until 2027

* Chile output falls nearly 10% YoY after El Teniente earthquake

* Copper stocks in the LME warehouse system have sunk to just over 140,000 tons, the lowest since the start of August.

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled higher by 1.53% at 294.65, supported by sustained declines in LME inventories which have slumped nearly 80% this year to just 48,825 tons, their lowest since May. The sharp inventory drawdown, coupled with a rising premium of $51 per ton for cash zinc over three-month contracts—the highest since October last year—signaled tightening near-term supply. LME zinc stocks have already fallen 61.5% this year to just 40,350 tons, adding to bullish momentum. Sentiment also drew support from expectations of two further Federal Reserve rate cuts this year and improving US housing market data. On the supply side, global production dynamics remain mixed. China’s refined zinc output in July rose 23% YoY, with year-to-date production up 4%, while August production reached the highest level since Q1 2024. September production is projected to dip slightly to 609,800 mt. Internationally, Peru’s Antamina mine expects a sharp 67% jump in production this year, while Teck Resources and Nyrstar announced cuts earlier, signaling uneven supply adjustments. Globally, the zinc market posted a surplus of 30,200 mt in July and 72,000 mt for the first seven months of 2025, though still tighter than the 185,000 mt surplus a year earlier. Technically, the market is under fresh buying as open interest rose 3.64% to 3,702 while prices gained 4.45 rupees. Immediate support lies at 291.8, with further downside limited to 288.9, while resistance is pegged at 296.5 and a break above could take prices to 298.3.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 288.9-298.3.

* Zinc gained as LME zinc inventory has fallen by 61.5% so far this year to 40,350 tons.

* Support also seen amid tightening supply conditions in China.

* Market expectations of two further Federal Reserve rate cuts this year, also supported prices.

Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled slightly higher by 0.19% at 259.7, supported by persistent supply risks despite weak demand indicators. China’s official PMI in September stood at 49.8, marking the sixth straight month of contraction in manufacturing activity, reflecting sluggish demand conditions. In North America, demand in the US and Canada fell 4.4% YoY in H1 2025, partly weighed by weaker exports due to tariff pressures. However, Chinese production is expected to be capped at the country’s 45-million-ton annual ceiling, with capacity nearing saturation, limiting further supply growth from the world’s largest producer. Adding to supply risks, Guinea Alumina lost all mining licenses, potentially halting ore supply to Emirates Global Aluminium, tightening global raw material availability. On the supply-demand balance, the World Bureau of Metal Statistics reported a global aluminium deficit of 119,900 mt in July 2025, with January–July deficit at 985,300 mt, underscoring persistent tightness. LME aluminium inventories dropped by nearly 100,000 tonnes in early September to 375,000 tonnes, reflecting robust physical demand. Meanwhile, SHFE-monitored stocks fell 2.4% WoW, further tightening visible inventories. Globally, primary aluminium output in August rose modestly by 0.9% YoY to 6.277 million tonnes, while China’s August output was up 1.22% YoY and 0.33% MoM. Technically, aluminium is under fresh buying as open interest surged 6.37% to 4,476 while prices edged up 0.5 rupees. Support lies at 259.1 and a break lower may test 258.4, whereas resistance is seen at 260.4, with potential to extend gains toward 261 on sustained momentum.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 258.4-261.

* Aluminium gained due to persistent threats to supply.

* Chinese output is expected to slow due to the country’s annual limit of 45 million tons, capping supply growth.

* China's manufacturing activity shrank for a sixth month in September, with the Purchasing Managers' Index at 49.8.

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled lower by 0.43% at 11,974, weighed down by an increase in acreage following favorable monsoon conditions this season. Preliminary estimates indicate that turmeric acreage may rise by 15–20% for 2024-25, with the sown area recorded at 3.30 lakh hectares, up 10% from last year’s 3 lakh hectares. However, the downside was capped as recent heavy rainfall in key growing belts, particularly in Nanded, damaged nearly 15% of standing crops, raising concerns about supply. Weather uncertainties remain in focus as IMD forecasts normal to below-normal rainfall across parts of South India in September. On the supply side, turmeric stocks with farmers in Warangal are nearly exhausted, with limited arrivals in recent days supporting prices. At the Duggirala market, fresh arrivals are seeing strong buying interest, with new crops commanding premiums over older stocks due to superior quality. Trading volumes remain firm at 1,000–1,200 bags per day, with about 50–55% of the new crop already traded, while arrivals are expected to continue into June. On the export front, April–July 2025 exports rose 2.29% YoY to 63,020 tonnes. July shipments, however, dipped marginally by 0.27% YoY but gained 9.31% compared to June, reflecting steady overseas demand. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest falling by 6.24% to 11,035. Prices slipped by 52 rupees, with immediate support at 11,880, below which levels of 11,786 could be tested. Resistance is now seen at 12,104, and a breakout above could drive prices towards 12,234.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 11786-12234.

* Turmeric dropped amid increase in acreage due to favourable rains during the current sowing season.

* While downside capped as recent rainfall has caused damage to standing turmeric crops in major growing regions.

* Recent heavy rainfall in Nanded has adversely affected the region's turmeric cultivation, damaging approximately 15% of the crop area.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 12910.95 Rupees dropped by -0.3 percent.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled almost flat, edging down by 0.03% at 18,940 as weak domestic and export demand continued to weigh on prices post the retail season. The decline was attributed mainly to muted overseas interest and comfortable supplies in the domestic market, with foreign buyers remaining largely inactive. Pressure was also seen as adequate stocks are meeting current demand, while farmers still hold about 20 lakh bags, of which only 3–4 lakh are expected to be traded by the end of the season, leaving an estimated carry-forward of 16 lakh bags. On the production side, current crop conditions and sowing remain favorable, pointing to output similar to last year. India’s cumin production for the current season is estimated at 90–92 lakh bags, down from last year’s 1.10 crore bags. State-wise, Gujarat is expected to produce 42–45 lakh bags, while Rajasthan may contribute 48–50 lakh bags. Globally, adverse weather has trimmed output in competing producers like China, where estimates have been revised lower to 70,000–80,000 tons, while Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan are projected at 9–12,000 tons each. Exports during April–July 2025 dropped by 19.81% YoY to 73,026 tonnes, with July shipments down 20.83% compared to last year and 15.58% lower than June, underlining sluggish overseas demand. Technically, the market is under long liquidation as open interest dropped 1.76% to 3,189. Prices slipped by 5 rupees, with immediate support seen at 18,890 and a break below could test 18,820. On the upside, resistance is placed at 19,020, and a move beyond may lift prices towards 19,080.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 18820-19080.

* Jeera prices dropped due to weak domestic and export demand.

* In July 2025 around 13778.60 tonnes of jeera were exported as against 16,322.06 tonnes in June 2025 showing a drop of 15.58%.

* GST council lowers GST rate to 5% which will support FMCG exports & domestic demand.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 18957.3 Rupees dropped by -0.48 percent.

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