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Gold

Gold prices corrected in the previous session, settling lower by 0.77% at 138,009, as investors booked profits after recent strong gains and shifted focus from geopolitical risks to incoming US macroeconomic data. Sentiment was influenced by mixed signals from the US economy, with ADP data showing private-sector job growth of 41,000 in December, below expectations, and job openings falling to a one-year low. However, the ISM services PMI surprised on the upside, expanding at its fastest pace since October 2024. Markets are now closely watching the upcoming nonfarm payrolls report for clearer direction on the Federal Reserve’s policy path, especially after FOMC member Neel Kashkari indicated that a rise in unemployment could strengthen the case for rate cuts. UBS raised its medium-term gold price target, citing expectations of lower real yields, sustained global economic uncertainty, and policy-related risks in the US. Physical demand also improved, with gold trading at premiums in key hubs such as India and China for the first time in nearly two months as lower prices revived retail buying. Central bank demand remains a major support pillar, with the People’s Bank of China extending its gold-buying streak to 14 months. From a technical perspective, the market is under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising 1.28% to 15,058 contracts as prices fell by 1,074. Gold has immediate support at 137,230, with a break below opening the door to 136,445, while resistance is seen at 138,970 and further at 139,925 on a sustained recovery.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 136445-139925.

* Gold slipped as investors locked in profits after strong recent gains.

* Geopolitical tensions and Fed easing bets keep the downside limited.

* China’s central bank extended its gold-buying streak to 14 months, underscoring sustained official demand for bullion.

Silver

Silver prices corrected sharply in the previous session, settling lower by 3.17% at 250,605, as investors booked profits after a strong rally and ETF holdings recorded a sharp reduction of more than 3.2 million ounces for the third consecutive day. The decline was reinforced by mixed US macroeconomic signals, with ADP data showing private payrolls rising by just 41,000 in December, below expectations, while US manufactured goods orders fell 1.3% month-on-month, highlighting softness in the industrial outlook. Policy expectations, however, remain supportive. Comments from Fed Governor Stephen Miran suggesting that aggressive rate cuts may be required to sustain economic momentum have strengthened market expectations for at least two rate reductions this year. Longer-term sentiment also remains constructive, with HSBC sharply raising its silver price forecasts for 2026 and 2027 on expectations of a weaker US dollar and mild supply-demand deficits, while noting that prices could remain volatile in the near term. Structural supply risks persist as Chinese silver stockpiles have fallen to their lowest levels in a decade following record exports, while liquidity in the London market remains tight despite rising vault holdings reported by the LBMA. From a technical perspective, the market is under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising 5.49% to 12,305 contracts alongside a steep 8,206 price decline. Silver has immediate support at 244,770, with a break below exposing 238,940, while resistance is seen at 258,060 and then 265,520 on a sustained recovery.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 238940-265520.

* Silver fell as ETFs shed over 3.2 mln oz for a third day, signaling profit booking.

* U.S. private payrolls rebounded less than expected in December.

* New orders for US manufactured goods fell by 1.3% from the previous month to $607.4 billion in October of 2025.

Crude oil

Crude oil prices declined sharply, settling lower by 3.24% at 5,041, as markets reacted to rising supply expectations and persistent signs of global oversupply. Sentiment weakened after President Donald Trump indicated that the U.S. had reached an agreement to import up to $2 billion worth of Venezuelan crude, potentially redirecting cargoes earlier destined for China and adding barrels to the global market. This comes despite logistical constraints on Venezuelan exports since mid-December. Adding to the bearish outlook, Morgan Stanley projected a possible surplus of up to 3 million barrels per day in the first half of 2026, driven by subdued demand growth and increasing supply from both OPEC and non-OPEC producers. Inventory data offered mixed signals. U.S. crude stocks fell sharply, with API reporting a 2.8 million barrel draw and EIA data confirming a 1.93 million barrel decline for the week ended December 26. However, total commercial crude inventories remain comfortably above historical averages at 423 million barrels. From a broader perspective, the IEA marginally narrowed its projected 2026 surplus, while OPEC+ continued to gradually increase output and maintained a constructive demand outlook. Technically, the market is under fresh selling pressure, as open interest rose 0.88% alongside a price drop of 169. Crude oil has immediate support at 4,984; a break below could test 4,927. Resistance is seen at 5,149, with a further upside hurdle near 5,257.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 4927-5257.

* Crude oil dropped as rising supply expectations tied to Venezuela and Russia weighed on prices.

* Trump says Venezuela to export $2 billion worth of oil to US

* Morgan Stanley analysts estimated the oil market could reach a surplus of as many as 3 mbpd in the first half of 2026.

Natural gas

Natural gas prices witnessed a strong rally, settling higher by 4.93% at 321.4, supported by a combination of lower output and improved weather-driven demand expectations. Production in the Lower 48 states has eased to an average of 109.0 bcfd so far in January, down from a record 109.7 bcfd in December, with daily output projected near a three-week low of 108.1 bcfd due to declines in key producing regions such as Texas and Arkansas. On the demand side, LSEG revised its outlook upward, projecting total gas demand, including exports, to rise from 131.2 bcfd this week to 132.4 bcfd next week, reflecting cooler temperature forecasts and stronger heating demand. Exports remain a key pillar of strength, with average gas flows to major U.S. LNG terminals rising to 18.6 bcfd in January, exceeding December’s record levels. Storage data, however, remained relatively soft, as the EIA reported a 38 bcf withdrawal for the week ended December 26, well below market expectations and historical averages. Looking ahead, the EIA expects both U.S. natural gas output and demand to reach record highs in 2025, underscoring a structurally robust outlook despite near-term volatility. From a technical perspective, the market is experiencing short covering, evident from an 8.42% decline in open interest. Prices are supported near 312.2, with a further downside cushion at 302.9. On the upside, resistance is seen at 327.2, and a sustained move above this level could open the door toward 332.9.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 302.9-332.9.

* Natural gas jumped on a decline in output and forecasts for cooler weather.

* Average gas output in the Lower 48 states has fallen to 109.0 bcfd so far in January.

* On a daily basis, output was on track to drop to a three-week low of around 108.1 bcfd on Wednesday due in part to declines in Arkansas and Texas.

Copper

Copper prices eased, settling lower by 2.28% at 1,307.75, as profit booking emerged after the recent rally driven by tight supply expectations and tariff-related concerns. Market participants remain wary that potential U.S. tariffs on refined metals under the Trump administration could divert global shipments toward the U.S., tightening availability in key hubs such as London and Shanghai. Despite the correction, the broader demand outlook remains constructive, supported by accelerating investments in power grid upgrades, renewable energy projects, and data center expansion, while continued policy support and ample liquidity in China underpin longer-term price strength. Supply-side risks persist. Capstone Copper announced that output at its Mantoverde mine in Chile will be reduced to around 30% following strike action, while Chile’s national copper output fell 7.18% year-on-year in November. Production disruptions at Freeport-McMoRan’s Grasberg mine in Indonesia further highlight fragility in global supply. The International Copper Study Group reported a refined copper surplus of 122,000 tons for the first ten months of 2025, even as refined usage grew a solid 5.5%. From a technical perspective, the market is under fresh selling, with open interest rising 5.12% alongside a price decline of 30.55. Copper is finding support near 1,287.6; a break below could test 1,267.3. On the upside, resistance is placed at 1,335.6, and a sustained move above this level could push prices toward 1,363.3.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1267.3-1363.3.

* Copper dropped on profit booking after prices gained fueled by a tighter global market and fears of US tariffs.

* China's central bank pledges to cut RRR, interest rate in 2026

* Citi raised its near-term copper price target to $14,000 a ton, citing strong market momentum.

Zinc

Zinc prices eased by 1.9% to settle at 309.65, as profit booking emerged alongside a firmer U.S. dollar after recent gains driven by tightening inventories and supply-side concerns. On the Shanghai Futures Exchange, zinc inventories declined by 4.3% from December 26, indicating continued near-term tightness. Supply disruptions remain in focus, with several Chinese mines scheduled for routine maintenance. In particular, a southwest China mine, having largely met its annual production target, is expected to cut zinc concentrate output by around 700 tonnes of metal content, while another central China mine has also planned maintenance, reducing effective production days. Fundamental signals, however, remain mixed. The International Lead and Zinc Study Group reported that the refined zinc market deficit narrowed to 600 tonnes in October, and data showed a cumulative surplus of 76,000 tonnes in the first ten months of 2025, compared with near balance last year. In China, zinc output rose 13.3% year-on-year in November to 654,000 metric tons, underscoring ample refined supply. Although China’s factory activity unexpectedly expanded in December, weakness in property investment and sales continues to cloud the demand outlook. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest falling 6.28% as prices declined by 6. Zinc has immediate support at 306.9, and a break below this level could test 304. On the upside, resistance is placed at 314.9, with a move above opening the path toward 320.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 304-320.

* Zinc dropped on profit booking and support dollar after prices gained supported by tightening inventories.

* ILZSG reported that the refined zinc market deficit narrowed to 600 tonnes in October.

* China’s zinc output in November rose 13.3 percent year-on-year to 654,000 metric tons.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices declined by 1.48% to settle at 310.15, as profit booking set in after recent gains driven by optimism over early signs of economic stabilization in China following targeted policy support for key sectors. Sentiment was also influenced by Beijing’s renewed emphasis on preventing overcapacity in metal production to counter deflationary pressures. With China expected to breach its 45 million tonne annual output cap, smelters are likely to restrain capacity growth in 2026, leading to more domestic sales and a sharp 9.2% year-on-year fall in aluminium exports in November. Supply-side risks persist globally. Efforts by Chinese smelters to expand capacity in Indonesia continue to face challenges from higher energy costs and regulatory hurdles, while high power prices, equipment issues, bauxite sourcing constraints, and geopolitical risks have disrupted operations in countries such as Iceland, Mozambique, and Australia. Inventory signals were mixed, with SHFE stocks rising 1% from late December, while aluminium inventories at major Japanese ports fell 5.2% month-on-month, indicating regional tightness. On the data front, global primary aluminium output edged up 0.5% year-on-year in November, while China’s production rose 2.5%. However, China’s imports of unwrought aluminium fell 14% year-on-year in November, reflecting softer import demand. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest down 5.58% alongside a price decline of 4.65. Aluminium has support at 306.4, with a further downside risk toward 302.7. Resistance is seen at 315.8, and a break above could test 321.5.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 302.7-321.5.

* Aluminium dropped on profit booking after prices gained as investor optimism reflects early signs of economic stabilization.

* China, reiterated its priority of preventing overcapacity in metal production to curb deflationary pressures for manufacturers.

* Inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 1.0% from December 26.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices corrected sharply in the previous session, settling lower by 3.09% at 17,778, pressured by expectations of higher acreage following favourable rains during the ongoing sowing season. For the 2025–26 crop year, turmeric acreage is estimated at around 3.02 lakh hectares, up nearly 4% year-on-year, with fresh production projected at 11.41 lakh tonnes. However, supply growth is expected to remain moderate as weather irregularities, waterlogging, and disease pressure have affected yields in key producing states such as Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, and Karnataka. Unseasonal heavy rainfall during August–September impacted nearly 15% of the crop in parts of Marathwada, leading to localized yield losses and quality concerns. Despite the price decline, downside appears limited due to below-normal arrivals, reduced carry-forward stocks, and firm domestic as well as international demand. Farmers and stockists are reported to be holding lower inventories, providing a price base ahead of new crop arrivals. Export demand remains supportive, particularly from Europe and the US, while Indonesia’s season has ended with lower-than-normal quality. Turmeric exports during April–October 2025 rose marginally by 2.05% year-on-year, although October exports declined on both annual and monthly bases. Imports fell sharply, reflecting adequate domestic availability. From a technical perspective, the market is under fresh selling, with open interest rising 3.65% to 16,175 contracts alongside a sharp 566 price drop. Turmeric has support at 17,344, with further downside toward 16,912, while resistance is seen at 18,494 and then 19,212 on a sustained recovery.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 16912-19212.

* Turmeric dropped amid increase in acreage due to favourable rains during the current sowing season.

* India’s turmeric crop for the 2026 harvest is shaping up with higher acreage but only moderate supply growth.

* However downside seen limited as arrivals remain below normal and good domestic and international demand.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 16660.55 Rupees dropped by -0.87 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices eased in the previous session, settling lower by 1.36% at 21,765, pressured by comfortable near-term supplies and subdued export demand amid adequate existing stocks. Market sentiment remained cautious as the retail season has largely concluded and overseas buying interest continues to be price-sensitive, with current export business being met from available inventories. Spot prices in Unjha also softened, reflecting weak buying momentum. Sowing progress has been notably slow, particularly in Gujarat, where jeera acreage as of December 29 stood at 398,596 hectares, down 14.2% year-on-year. Uneven rainfall and unprepared fields have delayed sowing, resulting in one of the slowest seasons in recent years. At the same time, arrivals at Unjha remain very low, with good-quality cumin commanding premium prices. Although farmers are estimated to be holding around 20 lakh bags, only 3–4 lakh bags are expected to trade this season, leaving substantial carry-forward stocks. Production for the current season is estimated lower at 90–92 lakh bags versus 1.10 crore bags last year, due to reduced sowing. Export data remains weak, with April–October shipments down 13.21% year-on-year, despite some improvement in Gulf and China demand. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest down 8.48% to 3,336 contracts alongside a 300 price decline. Jeera finds support at 21,600, with further downside at 21,440, while resistance is seen at 22,040 and 22,320.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 21440-22320.

* Jeera dropped due to comfortable supplies and tepid export interest amid adequate existing stocks.

* However downside seen limited as weather issues and delayed sowing are keeping cumin prices strong.

* In Gujarat, Jeera sowing seen at 398,596 hectares down by 14.20% compared to last years 464,570 hectares.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 22181.1 Rupees dropped by -0.71 percent.

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