Weekly Commodity Insights 29th June 2026 by Axis Securities Ltd
The Week That Was
• Gold traded around $4,040 per ounce on Friday, rising for a second consecutive session after the latest US PCE inflation report came in broadly in line with expectations, prompting investors to slightly reduce expectations for further Federal Reserve rate hikes this year. Despite the rebound, gold is down about 3% for the week, marking its fourth straight weekly decline, as the Fed's hawkish stance continued to support the US dollar. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh also reaffirmed the central bank's commitment to bringing inflation under control, easing concerns that he might yield to pressure from US President Donald Trump to cut interest rates prematurely.
• Silver climbed above $58 per ounce but remained down nearly 10% for the week, extending losses from the previous week as the Fed's hawkish outlook continued to strengthen the US dollar. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh reiterated the central bank's commitment to restoring price stability, while the Fed also raised its 2026 PCE inflation projections. Additionally, the headline PCE inflation rate accelerated to 4.1% in May, reinforcing expectations that interest rates could remain higher for longer.
• Copper prices hovered around $6.1 per pound, ending the week down more than 3% and remaining near their lowest levels in seven weeks. Sentiment remained under pressure from a stronger US dollar and expectations of tighter Federal Reserve policy. While the Fed left interest rates unchanged at its latest meeting, it signalled growing support for further policy tightening, with Chair Kevin Warsh reaffirming the central bank's commitment to restoring price stability.
• WTI crude oil fell nearly 4% to around $69 per barrel, its lowest level since 27th February. Prices declined as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz accelerated following progress toward a US-Iran peace agreement, helping restore Persian Gulf exports to roughly 75% of pre-war levels. Saudi Arabia also resumed loading tankers at its Ras Tanura terminal, signalling a significant increase in regional oil supply. Other Middle Eastern producers, including the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Qatar, also boosted output despite ongoing tanker availability constraints.
MCX Gold
Technical Outlook:
MCX Gold declined more than 2% last week, extending its losses for the sixth consecutive week, reflecting persistent bearish momentum. On the daily chart, prices have slipped below both the 100-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), indicating a deterioration in the medium-term trend. As long as prices remain below these key moving averages, the bias is likely to stay negative. A decisive break below the Rs 1,40,000 support level could accelerate selling pressure, exposing the next downside targets at Rs 1,25,000 and Rs 1,20,000. On the upside, Rs 1,55,000 is expected to act as a strong resistance zone.
Recommendation:
We recommend selling MCX Gold below Rs 1,40,000 with a stoploss above Rs 1,50,000 and targets of Rs 1,25,000 and Rs 1,20,000.
Current Market Price (CMP): Rs 1,44,200
MCX Silver
Technical Outlook:
MCX Silver plunged more than 6% last week, marking its sixth consecutive weekly decline and confirming a sustained downtrend. The overall chart structure remains bearish, with lower highs and lower lows continuing to dominate price action. A breakdown below the key support at Rs 2,13,000 could trigger further weakness towards Rs 1,80,000 and Rs 1,70,000. The Weekly RSI is hovering around 45 and continues to make lower lows, indicating weakening momentum and reinforcing the bearish outlook. Immediate resistance is seen at Rs 2,50,000.
Recommendation:
We recommend selling MCX Silver below Rs 2,13,000, with a stop-loss above Rs 2,35,000 and targets of Rs 1,80,000 and Rs 1,70,000.
Current Market Price (CMP): Rs 2,22,000
MCX Crude Oil
Technical Outlook:
MCX Crude Oil tumbled nearly 10% last week, making it the worst-performing commodity of the week. Technically, prices have slipped below the 100-day SMA, signalling a bearish shift in the trend. In addition, the Weekly RSI is trading near 49 and continues to form lower highs and lower lows, suggesting that downside momentum remains intact. A sustained break below the Rs 6,500 support level could open the door for a decline towards Rs 5,500 and Rs 5,100. On the upside, Rs 7,400 is likely to act as a strong resistance level.
Recommendation:
We recommend selling MCX Crude Oil below Rs 6,500, with a stop-loss above Rs 7,300 and targets of Rs 5,500 and Rs 5,100.
Current Market Price (CMP): Rs 6,570
MCX Copper
Technical Outlook:
MCX Copper declined more than 4% last week, registering its fifth consecutive weekly loss. The prevailing trend remains weak, with sellers continuing to dominate. The Daily RSI is trading around 34 and forming lower lows, highlighting strengthening bearish momentum. A breakdown below the Rs 1,240 support level may lead to an extended decline towards Rs 1,200 and Rs 1,180. On the upside, Rs 1,310 remains the key resistance level, and a sustained move above it would be required to improve the near-term technical outlook.
Recommendation:
We recommend selling MCX Copper below Rs 1,240 with a stoploss above Rs 1,270 and targets of Rs 1,200 and Rs 1,180.
Current Market Price (CMP): Rs 1,250
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