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Metal’s Outlook

Bullion Outlook

• Spot gold is likely to consolidate in the band of $3960 and $4,080 amidstrong dollar. Further, escalating Middle East tensions are raisinginflation concerns, which could lead to tighter monetary policy. Higherinflation concerns has lifted the probability of rate hike in September to64% from 58% a day ago, which is likely to weigh on bullion prices.Additionally, ongoing ETF outflows are expected to pressure prices. Longholdings in gold ETFs fell to 9-month lows. Meanwhile, strong centralbank buying and widening of conflict in the Middle east would bringsafe-haven demand for precious metal.

• MCX Gold Aug is expected to consolidate in the band of Rs 140,000 leveland Rs 142,800 level. Only a move below Rs 140,000, it would turn weakertowards Rs 138,000.

• MCX Silver September is expected to hold its ground above Rs 214,000and rise towards immediate hurdle at Rs 221,000.

Base Metal Outlook

• Copper prices are expected to hold its ground and move higher on tightraw material supplies and stronger demand from China. Further, sharpjump in premiums on imported copper to China would also help the metalprices to stay at elevated levels. The Yangshan copper premium standsat $100 per ton, reaching a 14-month high. Moreover, depletinginventory in LME and SHFE would also support the metal prices. On theother hand, weaker than expected economic numbers from China andprospect of tight monetary policy from the U.S. Federal Reserve wouldweigh on the metal prices

• MCX Copper July is expected to rise towards Rs 1320 - Rs 1325 as long as ittrades above Rs 1302 level.

• MCX Aluminum July is expected to move higher towards Rs 344 - Rs 346, aslong as it stays above Rs 339. MCX Zinc July is likely to slip towards Rs 370as long as it trades under Rs 377- Rs 378 level.

Energy Outlook

• NYMEX crude is likely to hold its gains above $80 and move higher towards$85 amid heightened geopolitical tensions between US and Iran. Althougha proposed ten-day ceasefire offers some hope of de-escalation. Market'sshift into backwardation points to underlying supply tightness.Furthermore, recent threats by Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis to blockadeSaudi maritime traffic in the Red Sea compound worries over energy flows.Any further escalation would severely impact global oil supplies and keepprices highly elevated.

• On the data front, fresh OI addition seen across ATM and OTM Put strikes,with highest OI concentration at $80, which would likely to act as majorsupport. On the upside $85 would act as immediate hurdle, which holdshigher OI. MCX Crude oil August is likely to move towards Rs 8200 - Rs 8300 aslong as it holds above Rs 7700.

• MCX Natural gas July is expected to hold above Rs 270 and rise towards Rs 280

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