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Gold

Gold prices slipped 0.51% to 1,22,927, pressured by fading expectations of a near-term U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut and softer physical demand across Asian markets. The probability of a December Fed rate cut has fallen sharply to 46%, down from 67% last week, as elevated inflation and weaker U.S. private-sector employment data pushed Fed officials to adopt a cautious stance. Markets are now waiting for key U.S. data releases, including the delayed September jobs report, which could provide further clarity on the policy outlook. Physical gold demand in Asia remained weak due to high prices. In India, discounts widened to $43/oz, the highest level in five months, compared to $14/oz last week. China saw mixed sentiment with bullion trading between an $8 discount to a $4 premium, while premiums in Singapore ranged between $1.50 and $3.50. Hong Kong and Japan also recorded modest premiums. On the global front, overall gold demand rose 3% YoY to 1,313 tonnes in Q3, the highest quarterly level ever recorded, driven by soaring investment demand. Bar and coin demand jumped 17%, and ETF inflows surged 134%, offsetting a 23% drop in jewellery fabrication. Central bank purchases increased 10% to 219.9 tonnes, while total supply hit a record due to higher recycling and mine output. Technically, gold is under long liquidation, with open interest down 5.82% to 11,127. Support is placed at 1,22,180, followed by 1,21,435, while resistance lies at 1,23,660, with a breakout potentially lifting prices toward 1,24,395.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 121435-124395.

* Gold dropped as investors waited for a series of U.S. economic data that could shed more light on Fed’s interest rate path.

* Markets are currently pricing in a 46% probability of such a move, the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows, down from about 67% seen a week ago.

* Reduced physical demand for the bright metal from Asia will continue to act as a headwind.

Silver

Silver prices slipped 0.45% to 1,55,312, pressured by diminishing expectations of a near-term U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut. Market odds for a December 25 bps reduction have fallen to 46%, sharply lower than the 88% probability seen a month ago. Traders now await the U.S. September jobs report and updated economic release schedules for further direction. The U.S. Department of Interior’s decision to add silver to its “critical minerals” list highlights its strategic relevance, potentially paving the way for trade restrictions under Section 232, similar to recent actions on copper. In the physical market, liquidity conditions improved slightly as London vault silver holdings rose 6.8% to 26,255 tonnes, aided by large inflows from the U.S. and China. This eased the sharp liquidity squeeze seen in early October, although borrowing rates remain historically elevated. Meanwhile, 1,568 tonnes of silver have moved out of Comex warehouses since early October, despite inventories still being higher year-on-year amid tariff uncertainty. Investment interest remains strong. Silver-backed exchange-traded product (ETP) holdings have surged 18% year-to-date, adding 187 million ounces, driven by concerns over stagflation, U.S. debt sustainability, Fed independence, and geopolitical tensions. However, global silver demand in 2025 is projected to fall 4% to 1.12 billion ounces, with declines expected across industrial, jewelry, and investment segments. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest down 2.45% to 12,867. Support is at 1,53,520, followed by 1,51,725, while resistance is placed at 1,56,900, with a breakout potentially lifting prices toward 1,58,485.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 151725-158485.

* Silver dropped as traders scaled back expectations for US rate cuts, with markets now pricing in about a 46% chance of a 25 bps.

* The September jobs report will be released on Thursday, leading to the end of a 43-day dry spell of data publication.

* The US Department of Interior recently added silver, copper, and metallurgical coal to its “critical minerals” list

Crude oil

Crude oil prices softened, closing 0.41% lower at 5,320, as supply concerns eased following the resumption of loadings at Russia’s Novorossiysk export hub after a brief two-day shutdown caused by a Ukrainian attack. Markets are also watching the impact of fresh Western sanctions as the U.S. banned dealings with Russian majors Lukoil and Rosneft from November 21, with additional legislation under consideration to penalize any country trading with Russia. OPEC+ maintained its steady supply strategy, raising December output targets by 137,000 bpd, while signalling a pause in supply increases during Q1 2026, helping stabilise expectations. On the U.S. inventory front, the EIA reported a strong 6.4-million-barrel build, significantly above forecasts of 2 million barrels, pushing crude stocks to 427.6 million barrels. Cushing inventories fell slightly by 0.346 million barrels, while gasoline and distillate stocks dropped 0.945 million and 0.637 million barrels, respectively. The EIA also revised U.S. production outlook, projecting record output of 13.59 million bpd this year, marginally easing next year, driven by stronger-than-expected August production. Global supply dynamics continue to lean bearish, with worldwide crude and liquid fuels output expected to average 106 million bpd, exceeding projected consumption of 104.1 million bpd. Technically, crude oil remains under long liquidation, with open interest plunging 30.84% to 3,447. Immediate support lies at 5,268, with further weakness toward 5,217. Resistance is at 5,362, and a breakout above this level could take prices toward 5,405.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5217-5405.

* Crude oil dropped as loadings resumed at the key Russian export hub of Novorossiysk.

* Investors are also monitoring the impact of Western sanctions on Russian supply and trade flows.

* US imposed sanctions banning deals with Russian oil companies Lukoil and Rosneft after November 21.

Natural gas

Natural gas prices fell by 1.27% to 395.3, pressured by milder short-term weather conditions that reduced immediate heating demand. The market also reacted to record U.S. output, with production in the Lower 48 states touching 109 bcfd so far in November, the highest ever, contributing to comfortable storage levels that stand 4.5% above the five-year average. Storage rose by 45 bcf in the week ending November 7, surpassing expectations of a 34-bcf build, though inventories remain 0.2% lower than last year. Despite abundant supply, strong LNG export demand continues to lend support. U.S. LNG feedgas demand averaged 17.8 bcfd in November, up from 16.7 bcfd in October, as Europe increases imports amid reduced Russian flows. At the same time, market participants are beginning to price in colder weather expected in early December, which could revive heating demand and potentially stabilise prices. According to the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, both U.S. natural gas output and consumption are projected to hit new records in 2025. Dry gas production is expected to rise from 103.2 bcfd in 2024 to 107.1 bcfd in 2025, while consumption may increase from 90.5 bcfd to 91.6 bcfd. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest falling 1.29% to 14,677. Immediate support is placed at 390.1, below which prices may test 384.9. Resistance is seen at 401.4, and a breakout above this level could open the path towards 407.5.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 384.9-407.5.

* Natural gas fell as short-term mild weather eased immediate heating demand.

* US production in the Lower 48 states reached a record 109 bcfd so far in November, a fresh record.

* Despite ample supply, strong LNG export demand persists, averaging 17.8 bcfd in November, up from 16.7 bcfd in October.

Copper

Copper prices edged lower by 0.58% to 1002.7, weighed down by weak economic data from China that heightened concerns over demand from the world’s largest consumer. Sentiment was further pressured as expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December faded, with several policymakers signalling reluctance toward further easing. However, downside pressure was partially offset after Freeport-McMoRan resumed partial operations at Indonesia’s Grasberg mine, which had been halted since September following a fatal accident. On the fundamental front, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) projected a 178,000-ton surplus in 2025, followed by a 150,000-ton deficit in 2026, indicating a tightening market trend. Global mine production is expected to grow 1.4% in 2025 and accelerate to 2.3% in 2026, while refined copper usage is seen rising 3% in 2025 and 2.1% in 2026. ICSG data also showed the global refined copper market posted a 57,000-ton surplus in July, compared with a 14,000-ton deficit in June. For January–July, the market recorded a 101,000-ton surplus, narrowing from 401,000 tons in the same period last year. Chinese demand indicators remained soft. Copper imports in October fell 9.7% to 438,000 tons, while year-to-date imports slipped to 4.46 million tons from 4.60 million tons last year.  Technically, the market is undergoing long liquidation, with open interest dipping 0.07% to 7,589. Support lies at 1000.3, below which prices may test 997.8. Resistance is placed at 1006.2, and a break above could lift prices toward 1009.6.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 997.8-1009.6.

* Copper declined after weak economic data from China fanned concerns over demand.

* McMoRan resumed partial operations at Indonesia’s Grasberg mine after a fatal accident halted output in September.

* China's factory output and retail sales grew at their weakest pace in over a year in October.

Zinc

Zinc prices slipped 0.41% to 302.1, pressured by a firmer U.S. dollar, diminishing expectations of an additional Federal Reserve rate cut, and persistent macroeconomic concerns. Several Fed officials expressed caution over inflation trends, reducing hopes of further easing this year. Market sentiment was also influenced by news that the U.S. government will begin releasing delayed economic data, including the September jobs report, offering clearer visibility into economic conditions. From China, signals remained mixed. While major investment in infrastructure and green energy continues to support long-term metal demand, recent industrial data has been lacklustre. The private-sector PMI compiled by S&P Global fell to 50.6, below expectations, while the official manufacturing PMI contracted for the seventh consecutive month, slipping to 49.0. On the supply side, global zinc inventories have dropped sharply. LME warehouse stocks are near their lowest since February 2023 at 35,875 tons, while SHFE stocks have fallen to 100,208 tons, down 8% over the past two weeks. The global refined zinc market recorded a 47,900-ton surplus in August, contributing to a cumulative 154,000-ton surplus in the first eight months of 2025. China’s refined zinc output showed volatility, falling 4% month-on-month in September but expected to rise 4% in October amid varying smelter maintenance schedules. Technically, zinc is under fresh selling, with open interest rising 12.6% to 3,029. Support is at 300.7, with a break lower exposing 299.2. Resistance is seen at 304, and a move above may open the path toward 305.8.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 299.2-305.8.

* Zinc dropped weighed down by a slightly firmer dollar, fading hopes for another Fed rate cut and a host of macro concerns.

* Sentiment also continues to be held back by macro signals from China, where recent industrial data has been lacklustre

* Zinc inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange gains 0.70% from last Friday, the exchange said.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices declined 1.35% to 266.85, pressured by weak macro signals from China and fading hopes of a U.S. Fed rate cut. Although China’s primary aluminium output in October stood at 3.8 million tonnes, up 0.4% year-on-year, production dropped 9% from September, indicating tightening supply conditions. Downside remained limited as Chinese smelters are approaching government-imposed capacity limits, raising concerns of constrained output in the months ahead. China’s latest economic data added demand pressure, with industrial output growing only 4.9% and retail sales rising 2.9%, both the slowest in over a year. New home prices fell 0.5% month-on-month, and new bank loans slumped sharply, pointing to weak credit demand and ongoing property market stress. Despite this softness, aluminium found support from ongoing supply-side disruptions globally. Smelter outages in Iceland, refinery shutdowns by Alcoa in Australia, and curtailments at Century Aluminium tightened the supply outlook. Physical market tightness was also reflected in rising premiums, with the European aluminium premium climbing to $328, nearly double levels seen in June. Meanwhile, backed by expectations of tighter supply, fund inflows into LME aluminium have surged. Banks remained divided: Goldman Sachs lowered its long-term outlook, while ANZ raised its short-term target to $2,900 per tonne amid improving global manufacturing demand. Technically, aluminium remains under long liquidation, with open interest falling 4.94% to 2,403. Support lies at 265.5, with further downside toward 264, while resistance is seen at 269.6, and a breakout may lift prices toward 272.2.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 264-272.2.

* Aluminium dropped as primary aluminium output in October reached 3.8mt (+0.4% year-on-year).

* China’s economy cooled more than expected in October.

* Record-low investment and slower industrial growth compounded already weak consumer demand.

Turmeric

Turmeric futures edged higher by 0.59% to 14,384, supported by crop damage across key growing regions such as Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and parts of Tamil Nadu. Heavy and continuous rains in Erode have resulted in quality issues and disease outbreaks, while excessive humidity is making storage difficult, tightening near-term supply. Reports from Nanded indicate that nearly 15% of turmeric acreage has been damaged due to recent rainfall. Additionally, stocks with farmers in Warangal are almost exhausted, and with no fresh arrivals for the last two days, market sentiment stayed firm. Low inflows and cautious selling continue to support prices. At the same time, the upside remains capped due to expectations of higher acreage. Favourable monsoon conditions during the sowing season are likely to drive a 15–20% increase in turmeric planting, as farmers shift from less profitable crops. For the 2024–25 season, turmeric acreage has already risen to 3.30 lakh hectares, up 10% from the previous year. In Duggirala, new crop arrivals are fetching premiums due to better quality, with daily trading of 1,000–1,200 bags and nearly 50–55% of the crop already traded. Export momentum is also positive, with Apr–Aug 2025 shipments rising 3.31% to 80,156 tonnes, while August exports grew 7.27% year-on-year. In the spot market, Nizamabad prices eased by 0.52% to 14,863.85. Technically, the market is in short covering, with open interest marginally lower by 0.23% to 10,790. Support is placed at 14,204, followed by 14,024, while resistance is seen at 14,560, with a breakout likely to push prices toward 14,736.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 14024-14736.

* Turmeric gained as yields in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka have been affected due to rains.

* Due to continuous rains in Erode, disease outbreaks have started emerging in some areas.

* Support also seen as recent rainfall has caused damage to standing turmeric crops in major growing regions.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 14863.85 Rupees dropped by -0.52 percent.

Jeera

Jeera futures surged 3.26% to 21,370, supported by adverse weather conditions, delayed sowing and extremely low arrivals in key markets like Unjha. Uneven and insufficient rainfall in Gujarat has resulted in one of the slowest sowing seasons in recent years, keeping supply concerns elevated. Good-quality cumin continues to fetch higher prices due to scarcity. Export demand from Gulf countries and China has improved slightly but remains highly price-sensitive, limiting broader upside. Additionally, logistical issues in India and the Middle East are restricting supply flow, further supporting firmness in prices. However, gains remain capped as the retail season has ended and foreign buyers remain largely inactive. Comfortable domestic stocks and subdued export interest are also weighing on sentiment, with most current demand being fulfilled from existing inventories. Farmers reportedly hold around 20 lakh bags of cumin, of which only 3–4 lakh bags are expected to be traded this season, leaving a heavy carry-forward stock of nearly 16 lakh bags. Production estimates for 2025 suggest 90–92 lakh bags, lower than last year’s 1.10 crore bags, with Gujarat expected to produce 42–45 lakh bags and Rajasthan 48–50 lakh bags. In Unjha, spot prices rose by 0.47% to 21,134. Technically, the market is in fresh buying, with open interest up 9.91% to 3,459. Support is at 20,920, followed by 20,470, while resistance is placed at 21,670, and a breakout could lift prices toward 21,970.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 20470-21970.

* Jeera prices rose as weather issues and delayed sowing are keeping cumin prices strong.

* Farmers are struggling to start sowing due to uneven rainfall.

* Gujarat, is seeing one of the slowest sowing seasons in years because fields are not ready.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 21134.4 Rupees gained by 0.47 percent.

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