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Bullion – Spot gold and silver prices surged sharply on Monday, rising over 2.5% and 5% respectively, supported by escalating geopolitical risks in Venezuela and renewed weakness in the US dollar as it retreated from a three-week high after the US December ISM manufacturing index data. The ISM manufacturing index fell to 47.9, its steepest contraction in fourteen months. Gold settled above $4,440, while silver closed near $76.6, also drawing spillover support from copper, which scaled a fresh all-time high. Meanwhile, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterated a hawkish bias, raising concerns over yen-funded carry trades in gold. Fed commentary remained cautious, with markets pricing just a 17% chance of a January rate cut. Today, gold rose above $4,460, as market now wait for key US data releases of the ISM Services PMI, Initial Jobless Claims and December’s NFP will guide near-term bullion direction.

Crude Oil – WTI crude oil closed nearly 2% higher on Monday at $58.3/bbl as traders assessed the impact of U.S. military action and the reported seizure of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, alongside President Trump’s threat toward Iran amid intense antigovernment protests. Prices were under pressure earlier in the session, slipping below $57/bbl, as markets judged the impact on global crude supplies to be limited. OPEC+ keeping output policy steady, the absence of damage to Venezuelan oil infrastructure, and the country’s relatively small share of global production helped cap the risk premium. Today, oil prices are holding firm above $58/bbl as markets weigh geopolitical risks against persistent oversupply concerns

Natural Gas – NYMEX Henry Hub natural gas slipped to $3.35/mmBtu, lowest level since October, as above-average temperatures across most of the U.S. for mid-January weighed on heating demand, while production remained near record highs.

Base metals – Base metals opened the week on a strong note, with copper leading gains after surging past the $13,000/ton mark for the first time, driven by a renewed rush to ship metal into the U.S. Persistent uncertainty over potential U.S. import tariffs has kept domestic prices at a premium to the LME, tightening availability elsewhere. Supply risks have added fuel, with strike action at Mantoverde mine and ongoing disruptions across key producing regions highlighting limited buffers. With inventories increasingly concentrated in the U.S. and London spreads remaining in backwardation, near-term tightness remains evident. Despite elevated speculative activity, structurally strong demand continues to support copper’s outlook, with prices higher today as U.S. tariff uncertainty draws material into the U.S. and tightens supply elsewhere.

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