India`s Wheat Market Faces Price Pressure Amid Record Sowing by Amit Gupta, Kedia Advisory
India is targeting a record wheat production of 115 million tonnes in the 2024-25 rabi season, supported by an all-time high sowing area of 324.38 lakh hectares. However, rising temperatures in key growing regions, especially Uttar Pradesh, could impact yields. The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) warns of a temperature rise, which may affect crop quality. The government has increased wheat sales under the Open Market Sale Scheme (OMSS) to control prices, which remain above the Minimum Support Price (MSP). Meanwhile, Australia anticipates a wheat import duty cut in late 2025, citing India’s potential supply concerns. Researchers also highlight pollution-related productivity losses affecting wheat and rice yields.
Key Highlights
* India targets record wheat production of 115 Mn Tns in 2024-25.
* Rabi wheat sowing reaches an all-time high of 324.38 La Ha.
* Rising temperatures in UP may impact crop size and yield.
* Government increases weekly OMSS wheat sales to 4 La Tns.
* Australia anticipates a wheat import duty cut by late 2025.
India’s wheat prices are under pressure despite government interventions. The current market price remains above the MSP of Rs.2,425 per quintal, but expectations of higher production and upcoming fresh arrivals may push prices down. The government has increased the weekly wheat sales under the Open Market Sale Scheme (OMSS) from 1.5 lakh tonnes to 4 lakh tonnes to curb price surges.
India’s wheat production target for 2024-25 stands at a record 115 million tonnes, surpassing last year’s 113.2 million tonnes. Rabi wheat acreage has reached an all-time high of 324.38 lakh hectares, supported by favorable weather and government incentives. However, temperature fluctuations in Uttar Pradesh have raised concerns, as minimum temperatures crossing 15°C in some areas have stunted crop growth. If this trend continues, wheat production could be affected. IMD forecasts a 2-3°C temperature rise across major wheat-growing states in the coming days.
Amid these domestic developments, Australia expects India to cut its wheat import duty by late 2025, seeing a potential market opportunity if production falls below expectations. Analysts predict India’s output could drop below 110 million tonnes due to weather irregularities. Meanwhile, a Stanford University study suggests that nitrogen dioxide emissions from coal-fired power plants are reducing India’s wheat and rice productivity by 10%.
Finally
While India is poised for record wheat production, rising temperatures and supply concerns may influence prices. Government interventions and potential import duty changes could shape market trends in the coming months.
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