Maize Sowing Rises, Prices Dip Amid Weak Demand & Bird Flu by Amit Gupta, Kedia Advisory
Maize sowing for the 2024-25 Rabi season has increased by 8.8% to 23.67 lakh hectares, driven by favorable weather in key regions like Bihar and West Bengal. However, maize prices have corrected by 3-5% due to reduced demand from the poultry industry following a bird flu outbreak and the government’s sale of rice for ethanol production. India’s maize exports rose 31% in November 2024, while imports dropped significantly, reflecting good domestic availability. Meanwhile, global maize production trends vary, with the U.S. and Pakistan seeing declines, while China and Russia reported record output. Prices are expected to remain weak due to ample supply and reduced ethanol and poultry sector demand.
Key Highlights
* Maize sowing for Rabi 2024-25 increased by 8.8% to 23.67 lakh hectares.
* Prices corrected 3-5% due to weak demand from ethanol and poultry sectors.
* Bird flu outbreaks impacted poultry demand in multiple states.
* India’s maize exports rose 31%, while imports dropped significantly.
* U.S. and Pakistan forecast lower maize production, while China and Russia reported record output.
Maize prices have experienced a downward correction of 3-5%, influenced by multiple factors. Weak demand from the poultry sector due to bird flu outbreaks in Andhra Pradesh, Jharkhand, Telangana, and West Bengal has led to reduced buying activity. Additionally, the government’s move to sell rice at lower prices for ethanol production has further dampened demand for maize, contributing to the price decline. Currently, loose maize prices in Chhindwara are projected to range between Rs.2,200 and Rs.2,325 per quintal.
Despite the price drop, maize sowing for the 2024-25 Rabi season has seen an 8.8% rise, reaching 23.67 lakh hectares, compared to 21.75 lakh hectares last year. Favorable weather conditions in key maize-growing states like Bihar and West Bengal have supported the increase. The crop is currently in its early growth stage, between 25 and 40 days old.
On the trade front, India exported 0.58 lakh metric tonnes (MT) of maize in November 2024, primarily to Nepal and Sri Lanka, marking a 31% rise from November 2023. Meanwhile, maize imports have dropped significantly to just 971 MT, reflecting good domestic supply and lower prices from the Kharif 2024-25 harvest.
Global maize production trends are mixed. The U.S. is projected to produce 14.9 billion bushels, down 276 million due to lower yields. Pakistan’s corn exports are expected to decline due to reduced production and rising domestic demand. In contrast, China’s maize output has reached a record 294.9 million tonnes, with similar upward revisions for Russia.
Finally
With increased domestic supply, reduced demand from ethanol and poultry sectors, and stable global production, maize prices are expected to remain weak in the near term despite strong Rabi sowing.
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