India`s Sugar Output Estimated Lower Amid Ethanol Diversion by Amit Gupta, Kedia Advisory
India’s sugar production for the 2025-26 season is estimated at 34 million tonnes (mt) gross, slightly below industry estimates of 35 mt. After accounting for diversion to ethanol, net sugar output may be around 30 mt, compared with annual consumption of 28.5 mt. The Food Ministry is taking a cautious approach to exports due to lower-than-expected output, delayed factory operations, and potential yield drops in key states. Heavy rains in Maharashtra have reduced sugarcane yield estimates, though total availability is still projected to rise. USDA forecasts higher production at 35.3 mt, but government remains cautious on exports.
Key Highlights
* India’s gross sugar output for 2025-26 estimated at 34 mt.
* Net sugar production likely around 30 mt after ethanol diversion.
* Export decisions delayed due to cautious government approach.
* Heavy rains impact Maharashtra sugarcane yields, lowering estimates.
* USDA predicts higher output at 35.3 mt vs government’s cautious view.
India’s sugar prices have remained stable despite festival demand during Dussehra and Diwali, with the government taking a cautious stance on exports. The Food Ministry estimates gross sugar production for the 2025-26 season at 34 million tonnes (mt), slightly lower than the 35 mt forecast by the Indian Sugar and Bio-energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA). After accounting for increased diversion of sugarcane to ethanol, net sugar output could be around 30 mt, against annual consumption of 28.5 mt.
Supporting this cautious approach, officials noted delayed factory operations, lower yields in some states, and potential crop risks due to weather and pests. Heavy rainfall in Maharashtra has caused waterlogging, lowering the expected sugarcane yield per hectare from 82 tonnes to 74 tonnes. Despite this, total sugarcane availability for crushing is projected at 120 mt, up from 85 mt last year, mainly due to higher acreage in Maharashtra and Karnataka compensating for a drop in Uttar Pradesh.
Globally, India’s sugar surplus could be limited, with the exportable volume potentially capped at 1.5 mt. The USDA, however, has a more optimistic projection, estimating India’s sugar output at 35.3 mt, citing favourable weather and increased cultivation. Industry experts emphasize that monitoring the next three to four months is crucial before export decisions, given uncertainties around crop yield and ethanol diversion.
Overall, India’s sugar market remains cautiously balanced, with stable prices, limited exportable surplus, and close monitoring of production and ethanol diversion shaping policy decisions.
Above views are of the author and not of the website kindly read disclaimer
