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India's soyameal export projections for 2023-24 face a significant downward revision amidst plummeting global prices, leading to a reduced outlook by over a fifth. Despite a marginal increase in exports and higher market arrivals, domestic demand weakens, impacting crushing activity and production. The feed and food sectors experience lower offtake, while price competitiveness concerns persist in international markets.

Highlights

Revised Export Projection: Indian soyameal faces challenges in the global market due to falling prices, leading to a downward revision of export projections by over a fifth for the oil year 2023-24.

Price Competitiveness Concerns: Indian soyameal prices are $80-100 per tonne higher on FOB basis compared to other origins, impacting order books and competitiveness in international markets.

Marginal Increase in Exports: Despite challenges, soyameal exports saw a marginal increase from October to January 2023-24 compared to the same period last year, reaching 6.09 lt.

Weak Domestic Demand: Both food and feed sectors in the domestic market experienced lower demand for soyameal compared to the previous year, with feed sector consumption at 24 lt (down from 25 lt) and food sector offtake at 3 lt (down from 4 lt) during October-January.

Sluggish Crushing Activity: Soyameal crushing during October-January was lower than the previous year, totaling 42.5 lt compared to 45.5 lt, attributed to weak demand.

Higher Market Arrivals: Despite lower crushing activity, market arrivals of soyameal were slightly higher at 62 lt compared to 61 lt during the same period last year.

Production Decline: Production of soyameal decreased to 33.54 lt from 36.32 lt, reflecting the impact of weaker crushing demand and market conditions.

Price Decline for Soyabean: Due to weak crushing demand, soyabean prices fell below the minimum support price levels to ?3,800-4,580 per quintal across various mandis in Madhya Pradesh.

Conclusion

India's soyameal industry grapples with formidable challenges stemming from the global price disparity, dampening export prospects and affecting domestic market dynamics. While slight improvements in exports and market arrivals are noted, the decline in crushing activity and production underscores the need for strategic interventions to enhance competitiveness and stimulate demand. Addressing price differentials, bolstering domestic consumption, and exploring avenues for value addition could potentially mitigate the industry's vulnerability to volatile global market conditions and ensure long-term sustainability.

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