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India forecasts record wheat and mustard yields amidst El Nino's impact, leading to a drop in rice production. Despite challenges, overall foodgrain production for 2023-24 is estimated at 309.35 mt. Rabi crops outshine kharif, while oilseed production dips, except for a record high in mustard. Weather adversities, including the driest August and minimal November rainfall, shape the agricultural landscape.

Highlights

Record Wheat and Mustard Crop: India estimates a record output for its wheat and mustard crops in the 2023-24 season.

Drop in Rice Production: Conversely, there's a projected drop in rice production due to the impact of El Nino on kharif and rabi crops, particularly affecting southern states with deficient rainfall.

Overall Foodgrain Production: The Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers’ Welfare projects an overall foodgrain production of 309.35 million metric tons (mt) for 2023-24, compared to 329.69 mt in the previous year.

Coarse Cereals and Nutri-Cereals: Maize output is lower by at least 6 mt, with Shree Anna (nutri-cereals) production also reduced, totaling 53.47 mt compared to 57.32 mt in the previous year.

Rabi Outperforms Kharif: Rabi foodgrain production exceeds kharif output, continuing a trend observed over the last few years, with rabi production at 155.16 mt compared to kharif's 154.19 mt.

Oilseeds Production: Overall oilseeds production is down to 36.59 mt from 41.35 mt, but mustard production hits a record high at 126.99 mt.

Pulses and Sugarcane: Key pulses like tur see a slight increase in production, while gram production is projected lower. Sugarcane production is revised upwards to 446.43 mt.

Cotton and Jute: Cotton production is projected higher at 323.11 lakh bales, and jute production also sees a slight increase to 92.17 lakh bales.

Weather Challenges: India faced indifferent weather with the emergence of El Nino in June 2023, resulting in the driest August and the sixth lowest rainfall in November.

Conclusion

India's agricultural sector navigates a tumultuous landscape, showcasing resilience amid El Nino's disruptions. While record yields in wheat and mustard highlight potential, challenges like reduced rice production and overall lower oilseed output call for adaptive strategies. The shift towards rabi crops dominance underscores evolving agricultural dynamics, urging for sustainable practices amidst unpredictable weather patterns.

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