India`s Coffee Exports Face Decline Despite Record High Prices by Amit Gupta, Kedia Advisory
India’s coffee exports are set to drop over 10% in 2025 due to lower production and depleted carry-forward stocks, despite robust global demand and record-high prices. Adverse weather conditions, including high summer temperatures and excessive rains, have impacted yields. The country’s coffee production for 2023/24 stood at 374,200 tons, with robusta accounting for 261,200 tons. While demand for Indian robusta remains strong, European buyers are slowing purchases following bulk buying in 2024 ahead of the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR). Indian robusta is currently fetching a $250 per ton premium over London futures, reflecting tight global supplies amid lower output from Brazil.
Key Highlights
* India's coffee exports may decline over 10% in 2025 due to lower production.
* Coffee output was impacted by adverse weather, reducing yields and fruit conversion.
* European buyers slowed purchases after stockpiling in 2024 ahead of EUDR regulations.
* Indian robusta is fetching a premium of $250 per ton over London futures.
* Tight global supplies and lower Brazilian output continue to support coffee prices.
India’s coffee market is witnessing a paradox: while prices are at record highs, exports are expected to decline over 10% in 2025. Lower production and depleted carry-forward stocks are the primary reasons behind this downturn. In 2023/24, India harvested 374,200 metric tons of coffee, including 261,200 tons of robusta and 113,000 tons of arabica. However, unfavorable weather conditions, including excessive heat and later heavy rains, have significantly impacted yields, causing fruit drops and lower conversions from flowers to cherries.
Higher prices are being supported by tighter global supplies, with lower output from Brazil adding to the supply crunch. Indian robusta, which is in strong demand, is currently being offered at a premium of $250 per ton over London futures, reflecting the limited availability. The robust global market outlook, driven by constrained supply and steady demand, continues to bolster benchmark futures.
Another key factor affecting exports is the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR). European buyers, who heavily stocked up on Indian coffee in 2024 ahead of the initial December 2024 deadline, are now reducing purchases due to record-high prices and the extended compliance timeline until December 2025. Major buyers like Italy, Germany, and Belgium have slowed imports, impacting overall export volumes.
Finally
India’s coffee exports face a sharp decline due to production challenges and depleted stocks. However, strong demand for robusta and global supply constraints continue to support high prices, keeping the market outlook firm.
Above views are of the author and not of the website kindly read disclaimer
