Crude oil prices fell amid thin trading as investors await US-Russia talks - HDFC Securities Ltd

GLOBAL MARKET ROUND UP
*Bullion closed with a modest gain on Tuesday, following a U.S. inflation reading that met expectations and bolstered speculation about an interest-rate cut next month. Data released on Tuesday indicated that the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.2% in July, after rising 0.3% in June. On a year-over-year basis, the CPI rose 2.7%, compared to an anticipated increase of 2.8%.
*The report fueled speculation that the Federal Reserve will lower borrowing costs next month, particularly in light of a weakening labor market, which has put downward pressure on the US dollar and contributed to a rise in gold prices.
*Crude oil prices fell on Tuesday amid thin trading as investors await talks between US and Russian leaders scheduled for Friday, seeking fresh direction. Oil traders are closely monitoring the preparations for these discussions, as they may lead to a relaxation of US sanctions on OPEC+ member Russia, potentially increasing supply in the market. Meanwhile, OPEC predicts a tighter global oil market than previously expected, attributing this shift to accelerating demand growth and slower expansion of competing supplies.
*Natural gas prices fell nearly 5.0% on Tuesday due to forecasts predicting cooler temperatures in the U.S. Additionally, a bearish factor affecting natural gas prices was the EIA's increase in its forecast for U.S. natural gas production in 2025, raising it by 0.5% to 106.44 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/day) from the July estimate of 105.9 bcf/day.
*Copper and other base metals rose on Tuesday, driven by optimism that the extension of the US-China trade truce by another 90 days would provide negotiators with more time to reach an agreement. This development also contributed to stabilizing expectations for trade between the world’s two largest economies.
Gold
• Trading Range: 99025 to 100725
• Intraday Trading Strategy: Sell Gold Mini Sep Fut at 100100-100125 SL 100405 Target 997 80/99600
Silver
• Trading Range: 111700 to 115080
• Intraday Trading Strategy: Buy Silver Mini Aug Fut at 113550-113575 SL 112500 Target 114725/115080
Crude Oil
• Trading Range: 5405 to 5700
• Intraday Trading Strategy: Sell Crude Oil Aug Fut at 5605 SL 5700 Target 5520/5465
Natural Gas
• Trading Range: 233 to 265
• Intraday Trading Strategy: Sell Natural Gas Aug Fut at 250-251 SL 254.80 Target 242/235
Copper
• Trading Range: 875 to 903
• Intraday Trading Strategy: Sell Copper Aug Fut at 897 SL 903 Target 887/884
Zinc
• Trading Range: 264 to 274
• Intraday Trading Strategy: Buy Zinc Aug Fut at 270.5 SL 266.8 Target 274.0
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