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Gold

Gold fell sharply by 2.16% to settle at 151,418, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar and cautious sentiment ahead of developments in U.S.–Iran talks and fresh signals from the Federal Reserve. Comments from Austan Goolsbee of the Chicago Fed suggested rates could eventually move lower, though sticky services inflation remains a concern. January U.S. CPI rose 0.2%, keeping markets focused on the Fed’s policy trajectory. Investors are now awaiting minutes from the Fed’s January meeting for clearer guidance, while rate-cut expectations are centered around mid-year. Geopolitical tensions, including U.S.–Iran discussions and renewed Russia–Ukraine negotiations, continue to underpin safe-haven interest. Analysts at ANZ lifted their second-quarter gold forecast to $5,800 per ounce, citing persistent global uncertainties. In physical markets, Indian dealers shifted to discounts as high prices dampened demand, while buying interest in China remained firm ahead of the Lunar New Year. Data from the China Gold Association showed China’s total gold output rose 3.35% in 2025, though overall consumption declined, with ETF inflows and central bank purchases providing support. Technically, gold is under fresh selling pressure, with open interest up 1.07%. Immediate support lies at 150,110, with further downside toward 148,805. Resistance is seen at 153,340, and a break above could test 155,265. 

Trading Ideas: 

*  Gold trading range for the day is 148805-155265.

*  Gold fell as stronger dollar pressured prices, while investors awaited clarity on U.S.-Iran talks.

*  US-Iran nuclear talks amid elevated tensions, while negotiations between Russia and Ukraine are also scheduled to begin.

*  Investors will scrutinise minutes from the Fed's January meeting, due Wednesday, for fresh clues on its rate-cutting path.

Silver   

Silver tumbled 4.63% to settle at 228,783, as thin liquidity during holidays in China and Hong Kong amplified volatility. Chinese participation had fueled a strong speculative rally in January, but the sharp reversal and regulatory steps to curb excess risk have since cooled momentum. With U.S. markets back in action, attention has shifted to the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting minutes and upcoming core PCE data for clearer direction on rates. U.S. inflation eased to 2.4% in January, its lowest since May, though core prices rose 0.3% month-on-month. Stronger jobs data has tempered expectations of an early rate cut, with markets now leaning toward July. Policymakers, including Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, have signaled caution, suggesting rates could stay higher for longer. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump indicated that negotiations with Iran may conclude within a month, adding a geopolitical dimension to market sentiment. On the supply side, physical tightness remains evident. Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories have dropped to near decade lows, while London vault holdings edged slightly lower at month-end. Technically, silver is under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising 2.71%. Immediate support is seen at 224,000, with further downside toward 219,215. Resistance stands at 235,645, and a rebound could test 242,505. 

Trading Ideas: 

*  Silver trading range for the day is 219215-242505.

*  Silver dropped as liquidity remained subdued amid market holidays in China, Hong Kong and other parts of Asia.

*  With US markets back open, attention now shifts to the latest minutes from the Fed.

*  Markets are currently pricing in a rate cut in July, with a strong probability of an earlier move in June.

Crude oil   

Crude oil fell 2.57% to settle at 5,642, pressured by rising supply expectations and easing geopolitical concerns. Output at Kazakhstan’s Tengiz field is gradually recovering after a January outage, while signs of softer tensions involving Iran and Russia also weighed on sentiment. Adding to the bearish tone, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) is reportedly leaning toward resuming output hikes from April. Inventory data further dampened prices. According to the Energy Information Administration, U.S. crude stocks jumped by 8.5 million barrels last week to 428.8 million barrels, far exceeding expectations. Gasoline inventories also rose, while distillate stocks declined. Meanwhile, net U.S. crude imports increased sharply, and refinery utilization slipped to 89.4%. On the demand side, the International Energy Agency modestly raised its 2026 global demand growth forecast to 930,000 bpd but still expects a surplus. Chinese imports of discounted Russian crude are set to hit a record in February, reflecting shifting trade flows. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest down 0.32%. Immediate support is seen at 5,563, with further downside toward 5,485. Resistance stands at 5,769, and a move above this level could test 5,897. 

Trading Ideas: 

*  Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5485-5897.

*  Crude oil dropped as oil production at Kazakhstan's giant Tengiz oil field is gradually increasing after an outage in January.

*  Pressure also seen amid easing geopolitical tensions in Iran and Russia.

*  OPEC is leaning towards a resumption in oil output increases from April.

Natural Gas  

Natural gas slipped 1.43% to settle at 275.5 as forecasts for milder weather eased concerns over heating demand. According to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), much of the central and southern U.S. is expected to see above-average temperatures over the next two weeks. After the recent Arctic blast that triggered a sharp rally and pushed the March contract to a three-year high, the market is now recalibrating expectations as demand is projected to fall. LSEG estimates total Lower 48 demand, including exports, will decline from 141.7 bcfd this week to 123.9 bcfd next week before recovering slightly. On the supply side, output has edged higher to 107.8 bcfd so far in February, up from January’s 106.3 bcfd, though still below December’s record. Storage data offered mixed signals. The Energy Information Administration reported a 249 bcf withdrawal for the week ended February 6, well above the five-year average but slightly below market expectations. Inventories now stand at 2.214 tcf, 5.5% below the five-year norm. Technically, the market is under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising 14.79%. Support is seen at 270.3 and 265.2, while resistance stands at 284.2, with a potential move toward 293 if prices rebound. 

Trading Ideas: 

*  Naturalgas trading range for the day is 265.2-293.

*  Natural gas slumped as forecasts for warmer weather reduced expectations for heating demand.

*  Central and southern areas of the US are anticipated to see above-average temperatures over the coming two weeks.

*  US working gas inventories are roughly 130 bcf below the five-year average, while LNG exports continue near record levels.

Copper

Copper dropped 3.94% to settle at 1,150.9, weighed down by rising global inventories and subdued trading activity during the Lunar New Year holidays in Asia. Stocks in LME warehouses climbed 4.6% to 221,625 tonnes, pushing combined inventories across London, Shanghai, and New York above the one-million-ton mark. In China, weaker factory activity and high prices have slowed industrial demand, with spot premiums slipping to a 60 yuan discount and the Yangshan premium easing to $34 per tonne. SHFE inventories also rose 9.5% week-on-week. On the supply side, mine disruptions in Chile and Peru offered some underlying support. Output at Collahuasi and Escondida fell sharply in December, while Peru’s production declined 11.2% year-on-year. However, the International Copper Study Group reported a 94,000-ton surplus in November, with the market remaining in surplus for the year overall. China’s refined production remains strong, up 9.1% year-on-year in December, even as unwrought copper imports for 2025 fell to their lowest since 2020. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest down 2.99%. Immediate support is seen at 1,129.8, with further downside toward 1,108.7. Resistance stands at 1,182.5, and a break above could open the way to 1,214.1. 

Trading Ideas: 

*  Copper trading range for the day is 1108.7-1214.1.

*  Copper prices dropped amid decline as global stockpiles continued to increase, dampening market confidence.

*  Copper stocks held in LME warehouses jumped 4.6% to reach 221,625 tons.

*  The global refined copper market showed a 94,000 metric tons surplus in November, compared with a 48,000 metric tons surplus in October.

Zinc

Zinc slipped 0.64% to close at 319.1, weighed down by a firmer dollar, rising exchange inventories, and subdued demand. The broader sell-off was amplified by thin participation as Chinese investors headed into the Lunar New Year break. Stocks in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses jumped 23.1% last week, reflecting softer downstream buying after pre-holiday restocking wrapped up. Despite the near-term pressure, supply-side concerns are preventing a sharper decline. While mined output rose 6.3% last year, refined production fell around 2% due to smelter curbs in Kazakhstan and Japan, including the closure of the Annaka plant. Temporary mine suspensions in parts of China are also trimming concentrate availability. However, restarts such as Boliden’s Tara mine and the ramp-up at Ivanhoe’s Kipushi project signal improving global supply. According to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group, the global zinc market posted a 7,700-ton deficit in November, but remains in surplus for the first eleven months of 2025. Meanwhile, China’s refined output hit a record 675,000 tonnes in December. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest down 7.92%. Support is seen at 318.1 and 316.9, while resistance stands at 320.5, with a move above that level targeting 321.7. 

Trading Ideas: 

*  Zinc trading range for the day is 316.9-321.7.

*  Zinc dropped as a firmer dollar, coupled with increasing inventories and weak demand, pressured prices.

*  Zinc inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 23.1% from last Friday.

*  However downside seen limited amid persistent concerns of tight supply.

Aluminium   

Aluminium declined 1.27% to settle at 303.8 after reports that U.S. President Donald Trump may scale back certain tariffs on steel and aluminium products. The news weighed on sentiment, though losses were cushioned by supply-side concerns. South32 confirmed that its Mozal smelter in Mozambique will move into care and maintenance due to drought-related power shortages and unresolved pricing issues with Eskom. Fundamentally, the market remains supported by relatively tight global supply and steady demand. In China, smelters are operating close to the government’s capacity cap, while high U.S. tariffs have curtailed imports and lifted domestic premiums. Shanghai exchange inventories rose 21.3% last week, yet global stock levels remain comparatively low. Reflecting this backdrop, Goldman Sachs raised its first-half price forecast to $3,150 per tonne. China’s refined aluminium output hit a record 3.87 million tonnes in December, with full-year production exceeding 45 million tonnes, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. Data from the International Aluminium Institute showed global output rose 0.5% year-on-year in December. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest down 13.82%. Support is seen at 302.1 and 300.2, while resistance stands at 306.8, with a move above that level targeting 309.6. 

Trading Ideas: 

*  Aluminium trading range for the day is 300.2-309.6.

*  Aluminium dropped after a report that U.S. President Trump plans to scale back some tariffs on steel and aluminum goods.

*  South32, confirmed its Mozal aluminum plant in Mozambique will enter care and maintenance next month.

*  Goldman Sachs lifted its first-half outlook for the light metal to $3,150 a ton from $2,575, attributing the hike to low global inventories.

Turmeric   

Turmeric gained 1.81% to settle at 15,090, supported by below-normal arrivals and steady domestic as well as export demand. Farmers and stockists have reportedly reduced their holdings, tightening near-term supplies and lending strength to prices ahead of the new crop. However, gains may be capped as fresh arrivals in Erode are expected to pick up over the next couple of weeks. For the 2025–26 season, acreage is estimated at 3.02 lakh hectares, up around 4% year-on-year, with fresh output projected at 11.41 lakh tonnes. Dried production is seen at 90 lakh bags, compared with 82.5 lakh bags last season, though lower carry-forward stocks are limiting the overall rise in availability. Weather disruptions and disease issues in parts of Maharashtra trimmed yields, but higher acreage is likely to lift the state’s output. Export performance remains encouraging, with shipments during April–November 2025 rising 4.88% year-on-year, while imports have declined sharply. Quality-grade supplies may find support from increased adoption of IPM practices, helping meet EU standards. In Nizamabad, spot prices eased slightly to ?15,555. Technically, the market shows fresh buying interest, with open interest up 1.23%. Support is seen at 14,600 and 14,110, while resistance stands at 15,490 and 15,890. 

Trading Ideas: 

*  Turmeric trading range for the day is 14110-15890.

*  Turmeric gains as arrivals remain below normal and good domestic and international demand.

*  However upside seen limited as fresh turmeric arrivals in Erode are expected to increase sharply over the next 10-15 days.

*  Turmeric exports during Apr - Nov 2025, jump by 4.88 percent at 127530.20 tonnes as compared to 121601.21 tonnes exported during Apr - Nov 2024.

*  In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 15555.35 Rupees dropped by -1.37 percent.

Jeera

Jeera edged up 0.4% to settle at 22,345, supported by lower sowing and concerns over crop risks. In Gujarat, acreage is down 14.34% year-on-year at 4.08 lakh hectares, marking one of the slowest sowing seasons in recent years. National production for 2026 is estimated at 90–92 lakh bags, sharply below last year’s 1.10 crore bags, with Gujarat seen at 42–45 lakh bags and Rajasthan at 48–50 lakh bags. Adding to supply worries, aphid infestations have been reported in parts of Rajasthan. At the same time, gains remain capped as new crop arrivals have started in select mandis and are expected to pick up from March. Existing stocks are considered comfortable, and export demand remains subdued despite some buying interest from Gulf countries and China. April–November 2025 exports fell 10.3% year-on-year, even though November shipments showed improvement over last year. Farmers are still holding around 20 lakh bags, with significant carry-forward stock likely. Geopolitical disruptions in Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan have tightened global supply, but overseas demand for Indian cumin remains price-sensitive. In Unjha, spot prices slipped slightly to ?22,453. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest down 4.85%. Support lies at 21,950 and 21,550, while resistance is seen at 22,620 and 22,890. 

Trading Ideas: 

*  Jeera trading range for the day is 21550-22890.

*  Jeera prices gains as sowing in Gujarat is down 14.34% YoY, covering 4.08 lakh hectares

*  National production for 2026 is estimated at 90–92 lakh bags, significantly lower than last year’s 1.10 crore bags.

*  Rising risks of Aphid infestation have been reported across key growing regions in Rajasthan.

*  In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 22453.7 Rupees dropped by -0.26 percent.

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