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Metal’s Outlook

Bullion Outlook

* Spot gold is expected to face hurdle near $4950 and move lower towards $4750 amid strong dollar and diminishing bets of Fed rate cut in this year. Further, a strong dollar and rising US treasury yields would likely to weigh on prices. Moreover, other central banks are also expected to keep policy rates unchanged and hold a hawkish stance due to current inflationary situation. On the other hand, geopolitical uncertainty and escalating conflict in the Middle east would bring safe haven buying in the precious metals and limit its downside. Today, investors will focus on key policy outcome from ECB and BOE, which could bring further volatility.

* MCX Gold April is expected to face resistance near Rs.156,000 and move towards Rs.150,000. Only a move below Rs.150,000, it would turn weaker towards Rs.148,000.

* MCX Silver May is expected to move in between Rs.237,000 and Rs.258,000. Only a move above Rs.258,000 it would rise towards Rs.264,000.

Base Metal Outlook

* Copper prices are expected to remain under pressure amid strong dollar and softening Chinese demand. Weak credit demand from China and rising global inventory levels in major exchanges would likely to weigh on metal prices. LME copper inventory hit 330,375 tons highest level since September 2019. A rapid buildup of exchange stockpiles since the start of the year reflects a growing bearish mood in the physical market for copper. Further, ongoing geopolitical and trade uncertainties would also hurt demand outlook. Moreover, a hawkish Fed stance and diminishing prospects of further rate cut would also likely to weigh on prices.

* In the near term MCX Copper March is projected to move towards Rs.1140 as long as it trades under Rs.1164

* MCX Aluminum March is expected to hold above Rs.336 and rise towards Rs.348 level. Prices are expected to regain its strength due to supply disruption from the Middle east region.

* MCX Zinc March is likely to face hurdle near Rs.318 level and move lower towards Rs.309 level.

Energy Outlook

* NYMEX crude oil is expected to remain volatile amid escalating conflict between US and Iran. Prices would get support after Iran accused Israel of striking its facilities in the huge South Pars gas field on Wednesday and retaliated by vowing attacks on oil and gas targets throughout the Gulf. Any sign of further escalation would hurt oil supplies from the Gulf region and support prices. Brent crude is already hovering above $110 per barrel signaling tightness of the market. For the day, NYMEX crude is likely to move in a broader range of $91 and $102. A move above $102 could open the doors towards $105.

* MCX Crude oil April is likely to move in a broader range of Rs.8500 and Rs.9300. Only a move above Rs.9300 it would rise towards Rs.9600.

* MCX Natural gas March future is expected to rise towards Rs.305-310 zone as long as it trades above Rs.280. Prices would likely to get support after Iran launched attacks on key energy infrastructure across the Middle East, intensifying supply concerns

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