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Gold

Gold edged higher by 0.21% to settle at  Rs.1,50,289, as markets reacted cautiously to rising geopolitical tensions surrounding U.S. President Donald Trump’s ultimatum to Iran. While the situation intensified with reported explosions in key Iranian locations and threats of wider retaliation, gold’s upside remained limited. The metal is still trading about 12% below its pre-conflict levels after witnessing its sharpest monthly decline since 2008 in March. A stronger U.S. dollar and shifting expectations around Federal Reserve policy continue to weigh on gold. Robust U.S. economic data, including stronger nonfarm payrolls and a lower unemployment rate, has led traders to largely rule out rate cuts this year. This has reduced gold’s appeal as a non-yielding asset. However, some support is emerging from physical demand, particularly in India, where gold traded at a premium after two months, while demand in China remained steady despite slightly softer premiums. On the institutional side, the People's Bank of China continued its gold accumulation, marking its 17th consecutive month of purchases, highlighting sustained long-term demand from central banks globally. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining while prices move higher. Immediate support is seen at  Rs.1,48,860, with further downside towards  Rs.1,47,425. Resistance is placed at  Rs.1,51,295, and a breakout above this could push prices towards  Rs.1,52,295.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 147425-152295.

* Gold gained as markets braced for US President Donald Trump’s ultimatum to Iran.

* China’s central bank added 160,000 troy ounces of gold to its reserves in March, marking a 17th consecutive month of purchases

* UBS lowers End-June gold forecast to $5,200 per ounce reflecting softer investor demand amid elevated volatility

Silver

Silver prices declined by 0.87% to settle at  Rs.2,31,348, as traders remained cautious ahead of U.S. President Donald Trump’s deadline to Iran. Despite escalating tensions, including reported attacks on key Iranian infrastructure and threats of broader retaliation, silver failed to gain from its safe-haven appeal. In fact, prices are still trading nearly 20% below pre-conflict levels, weighed down by a stronger U.S. dollar and reduced expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts. Macroeconomic data from the U.S. further added pressure. Durable goods orders declined for the third consecutive month, while labor market data remained strong, with a notable rise in private-sector hiring. This mixed data environment has reinforced the view that interest rates may stay elevated, limiting upside in precious metals. On the supply side, silver holdings in London vaults stood at 27,065 tonnes at the end of February, marking a 2.4% monthly decline, indicating some tightening in physical availability. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest falling alongside prices. Immediate support is seen at  Rs.2,25,465, and a break below this could push prices towards  Rs.2,19,580. On the upside, resistance is placed at  Rs.2,36,390, with a potential move towards  Rs.2,41,430 if this level is crossed.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 219580-241430.

* Silver dropped as traders adopted a "wait-and-see" approach ahead of President Trump’s Iran deadline.

* With traders betting against rate cuts, the precious metal’s safe-haven appeal has weakened, leaving prices subdued.

* New orders for US-manufactured durable goods fell by 1.4% from the previous month to $315.5 billion in February of 2026.

Crude oil

Crude oil prices rose by 0.77% to settle at  Rs.10,669, supported by escalating geopolitical tensions as U.S. President Donald Trump set a deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face potential attacks. Supply concerns intensified as disruptions in Middle Eastern flows pushed spot premiums for U.S. crude to record highs, with Asian and European refiners actively seeking alternatives. Adding to the bullish tone, Saudi Aramco raised its official selling price for Arab Light crude to Asia for May delivery to a record premium. Despite OPEC+ announcing a planned output increase, the actual impact remains limited due to production constraints among key members. On the inventory front, U.S. crude stocks rose sharply by 5.5 million barrels, while gasoline and distillate inventories declined, indicating mixed demand signals. Meanwhile, Russia’s oil production saw a slight dip, although exports are gradually stabilizing amid shifting trade dynamics. Overall, the market remains highly sensitive to geopolitical developments and supply disruptions, which are currently outweighing bearish inventory data. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with a sharp drop in open interest alongside rising prices. Immediate support is seen at  Rs.10,374, with a break below likely testing  Rs.10,078. On the upside, resistance is placed at  Rs.10,978, and a move above this level could push prices towards  Rs.11,286.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 10078-11286.

* Crude oil prices rose ahead of a deadline set by U.S. President Trump for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz ‌or face attacks.

* Saudi Aramco raised the official selling price of its Arab Light crude to Asia for May delivery, setting a record premium of $19.50.

* OPEC+ oil producing nations agreed to raise their May oil output quotas by 206,000 barrels per day

Natural gas

Natural gas prices rose by 1.5% to settle at  Rs.269.8, supported mainly by a short-term drop in daily production. This uptick came despite expectations of milder weather and lower demand over the next couple of weeks, which would typically weigh on prices. While overall output in the U.S. remains strong, averaging over 111 bcfd in April so far, daily production recently slipped to a two-week low due to declines in key regions like Louisiana and Arkansas. On the demand side, forecasts have been revised lower, with total consumption—including exports—expected to fall in the near term. At the same time, LNG export flows have shown a modest increase compared to last month, offering some support to the market. Storage data also paints a slightly bearish picture, with inventories rising above both last year’s levels and the five-year average following a fresh injection. Looking ahead, the U.S. Energy Information Administration expects production to continue rising through 2026 and beyond, while demand may ease slightly before stabilizing. This outlook suggests a well-supplied market in the medium term. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining as prices move higher. Immediate support is seen at  Rs.262.8, with further downside towards  Rs.255.8. On the upside, resistance is placed at  Rs.274.3, and a move above this level could push prices towards  Rs.278.8.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 255.8-278.8.

* Natural gas edged up to a one-week high on a preliminary decline in daily output.

* That small price increase came despite forecasts for milder weather and lower demand over the next two weeks.

* Average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 111.2 bcfd so far in April, up from 110.4 bcfd in March.

Copper

Copper prices edged lower by 0.17% to settle at  Rs.1,159.55, as market sentiment remained cautious amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic uncertainty. Investors are closely watching developments after U.S. President Donald Trump set a deadline for Iran, with no clear timeline for resolution, which has added to concerns over global growth. Additional pressure is coming from ample supply conditions, with London Metal Exchange inventories hovering near six-year highs. On the supply side, major Chinese smelters are planning to maintain or even increase output in 2026, despite earlier commitments to cut production. However, there are some supportive signals as well—copper inventories on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have dropped sharply in recent weeks, indicating improving demand ahead of China’s peak consumption season. Chile’s production also declined notably in February, hitting its lowest level in several years. Globally, the market continues to show a modest surplus, and major institutions like Goldman Sachs and Citi have turned cautious, citing potential oversupply and weaker economic outlook. Import data from China also reflects mixed trends, with lower refined copper imports but higher concentrate inflows. Technically, the market is under fresh selling pressure, with rising open interest alongside falling prices. Immediate support is seen at  Rs.1,153.2, with further downside towards  Rs.1,146.9. Resistance is placed at  Rs.1,166.8, and a move above this could push prices towards  Rs.1,174.1.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1146.9-1174.1.

* Copper dropped as investors remained cautious over the Middle East war.

* Goldman Sachs raises 2026 copper surplus forecast, cuts price outlook

* Chile, exported $5.16 billion worth of the metal in March, up 14% from a year earlier.

Zinc

Zinc prices moved higher by 1.4% to settle at  Rs.329, supported by tightening supplies and improving demand signals, although overall sentiment remains cautious. Markets are closely tracking geopolitical developments after U.S. President Donald Trump reiterated a firm stance on Iran, adding uncertainty to the global economic outlook. On the fundamentals side, China continues to play a key role. While the People's Bank of China reduced liquidity in March and foreign exchange reserves saw a sharp decline, factory activity returned to expansion, indicating steady industrial demand. At the same time, inventories on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have declined, and ongoing mine closures and operational disruptions are keeping supplies tight, lending support to prices. However, the broader outlook remains balanced. Global zinc markets have shifted into a small surplus, with rising mine supply expected to meet steady demand growth. Additional output from projects like Tara and Kipushi, along with increased production plans from major players, could cap further upside. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh buying interest, as rising open interest alongside higher prices indicates strengthening momentum. Immediate support is seen at  Rs.324.3, with further downside towards  Rs.319.5. On the upside, resistance is placed at  Rs.332.6, and a move above this level could push prices towards  Rs.336.1.

Trading Ideas:

# Zinc trading range for the day is 319.5-336.1.

# Zinc rose with investors becoming increasingly cautious ahead of President Trump’s deadline for Iran to agree to a peace deal.

# PBOC withdrew cash from the financial system for the first time in a year.

# China's central bank pledged to maintain appropriately loose monetary policy.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices gained 0.95% to settle at  Rs.355.75, supported by tightening near-term supply conditions in the global market. The rally was largely driven by disruptions at key facilities in the UAE, where Emirates Global Aluminium indicated that full restoration of operations at its Al Taweelah smelter could take up to a year following recent damage. This has pushed LME cash premiums to their highest levels since 2007, highlighting strong demand for immediate supplies. Physical market tightness is also evident, with LME warehouse inventories falling to multi-month lows. At the same time, Japanese buyers have agreed to significantly higher premiums for upcoming shipments, reflecting constrained availability. However, this bullish sentiment is partly offset by rising inventories in Shanghai and concerns over the broader economic impact of geopolitical tensions. On the supply side, global aluminium production continues to rise modestly, with China increasing output amid improved profitability, even as imports decline. Meanwhile, some operational shifts, including shutdowns and restarts at various global smelters, are adding complexity to the supply outlook. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, as falling open interest alongside rising prices indicates position unwinding. Immediate support is seen at  Rs.352.1, with further downside towards  Rs.348.5. Resistance is placed at  Rs.358.4, and a move above this level could push prices towards  Rs.361.1.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 348.5-361.1.

* Aluminium prices rose as the key aluminium spread on LME jumped at $81 a ton, its highest since 2007.

* Emirates Global Aluminium says full production recovery from attack could take a year

* LME warehouse inventories falling to 418,675 tonnes as of March 27, the lowest level since July 2025.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices ended marginally lower by 0.16% at  Rs.16,220, mainly due to a sharp rise in fresh arrivals across key mandis. The market is also feeling pressure from increased acreage this season, supported by favourable rainfall during sowing. However, the downside remains limited as overall arrivals are still below normal and demand—both domestic and export—continues to stay firm. The 2026 crop outlook indicates higher acreage, but supply growth may remain moderate due to weather irregularities and localized disease issues. Lower carry-forward stocks and reduced holdings by farmers and stockists are providing a strong base to prices ahead of fresh crop arrivals. While yields in states like Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, and Karnataka have been impacted, total production is still expected to rise, with all-India output estimated at around 90 lakh bags versus 82.5 lakh bags last year. On the demand side, exports show mixed signals—short-term weakness but stable overall momentum—while imports have declined significantly, reflecting reduced dependency on overseas supply. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh selling pressure, with a slight rise in open interest indicating active participation. Immediate support is seen at  Rs.16,018, with a break below possibly testing  Rs.15,816. On the upside, resistance is placed at  Rs.16,436, and a sustained move above this level could push prices towards  Rs.16,652.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 15816-16652.

* Turmeric dropped as fresh turmeric arrivals in market increase sharply.

* Pressure also seen amid increase in acreage due to favourable rains during the current sowing season.

* India’s turmeric crop for the 2026 harvest is shaping up with higher acreage.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 15731.8 Rupees gained by 3.28 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices eased by 0.8% to settle at  Rs.22,285, mainly weighed down by the early arrival of the new crop in select mandis. With arrivals expected to gather pace in the coming weeks, the market is seeing some pressure from comfortable supplies and subdued export interest. However, the downside appears limited due to concerns over weather risks and lower production estimates. Gujarat, a key producing state, is witnessing one of its slowest sowing seasons in recent years, with acreage down over 14% year-on-year. Production here is expected to drop sharply due to reduced area and weaker yields. At the same time, rising temperatures and potential heatwaves in North Gujarat could further impact seed development, keeping supply concerns alive. On the other hand, Rajasthan is likely to offset some losses with higher output supported by better yields and a slight increase in acreage. Demand remains mixed. While premium-quality cumin continues to see steady buying, overall export demand is weak, reflected in a sharp decline in shipments. Global uncertainties and logistical disruptions have also impacted trade flows. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with a noticeable drop in open interest alongside falling prices. Immediate support is seen at  Rs.22,220, with further downside towards  Rs.22,130. Resistance is placed at  Rs.22,410, and a move above this could push prices towards  Rs.22,510.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 22130-22510.

* Jeera dropped on profit booking and as arrivals of the new crop have started in some markets.

* India Meteorological Department has issued alerts for rising temperatures in North Gujarat.

* Gujarat, is seeing one of the slowest sowing seasons in years because fields are not ready.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 22559.15 Rupees dropped by -0.17 percent.

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