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Bullion

Spot gold fell 0.30% on Thursday, while silver rose 0.70%, leaving precious metals mixed. A stronger dollar pressured bullion. However, silver found support from improved industrial demand prospects after U.S. and Eurozone August manufacturing PMIs expanded at their fastest pace in 3 years. Gold pared losses following weaker U.S. labor data, as initial jobless claims rose above estimates and continuing claims hit their highest since Nov 2021. Political uncertainty in the U.S. and concerns over Fed independence also lifted safe-haven interest. On the geopolitical front, Russia reiterated demands over Donbas and rejected NATO involvement, dampening hopes for peace. Meanwhile, expectations for a Fed rate cut in September eased to 75% from 82% a day earlier. Today, Gold slipped below $3,335, extending losses as strong U.S. manufacturing data may curbed rate-cut expectations, with traders cautious ahead of the Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium amid persistent inflation concerns.

Crude Oil

 WTI crude extended gains on Thursday to $63.7/bbl after hitting a low of $62.5/bbl earlier in the session. Prices were supported by skepticism over an immediate Russia-Ukraine peace deal, a larger-than-expected draw in US oil inventories, and broadly strong manufacturing PMI data from major global economies. Peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine appeared to stall, with Russia launching its largest air attack since July, targeting Western Ukraine, while Ukrainian forces struck an oil refinery in Russia’s Rostov region near the Donbas. However, oil prices edged lower today to $63.3/bbl amid reports of a potential Trump-Putin meeting in the coming days. Also, global risk appetite remains limited ahead of the highly anticipated Jackson Hole symposium.

Natural Gas

NYMEX Henry Hub gas futures surged 3% yesterday to $2.84/mmBtu, buoyed by a smaller-than-expected storage injection, further upside capped by declining LNG export flows.

MCX electricity futures August is currently quoted at Rs.4,242/MWh, reflecting a premium of Rs.43 over DDR of Rs.4,199/MWh.

Base metals

Base metals on the LME ended Thursday on a mixed note, with copper and aluminium closing higher, while on the MCX too it was mixed, as zinc slipped marginally to around ?265/kg. Market sentiment stayed cautious after Trump criticized a court ruling that halted a major copper project, adding to volatility already stirred by fresh tariffs on copper-related imports. The focus now shifts to the Jackson Hole Symposium, where Fed Chair Powell’s speech is expected to guide market direction. Aluminium also found support from China’s output cap, which may push smelters to expand overseas, particularly in Indonesia. Overall, base metals are likely to remain range-bound with heightened volatility ahead of policy cues from the Fed and a firm dollar.

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