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Bullion – Spot gold surged over 1% on Thursday to its highest level in more than a month, climbing above $4,285 after the Federal Reserve’s quarter-point rate cut pressured the U.S. dollar. Silver also rallied sharply, hitting a record high above $64.3 before settling 3% higher at $63.5. A weaker dollar, which slipped to an eight-week low, boosted bullion’s appeal for global buyers. U.S. data remained mixed: Initial Jobless Claims rose sharply to 236K, while Continuing Claims eased, suggesting tentative labor-market stabilization. The trade deficit narrowed to $52.8 billion in September. Geopolitical developments continued as Ukraine presented a revised peace plan to the U.S. Today, gold trading just over $4,270 supported by a softer dollar, easing U.S. economic data, and geopolitical uncertainty.

Crude Oil – WTI crude oil fell to a two-month low of $57/bbl yesterday, as oversupply worries outweighed the bullish impact of rising geopolitical tensions. The IEA slightly softened its glut projections but still expects a record buildup. It trimmed its 2026 surplus forecast, lowering it from 4.09 million bpd to 3.84 million bpd, reflecting the effect of sanctions on Russia and Venezuela and stronger-than-expected global demand. Meanwhile, OPEC stayed optimistic, expecting global oil demand to rise by about 1.4 million bpd next year. Geopoltical tensions also escalated after Ukraine’s long-range drone strike on a Caspian Sea offshore field, and reports that the U.S. plans to intercept more sanctioned Venezuelan oil tankers. Today, crude prices edged up to $58.2/bbl, helped by broader risk-on sentiment and President Donald Trump’s announcement of new sanctions targeting three of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro’s nephews and six oil tankers.

Natural Gas – Nymex gas futures, meanwhile, dropped 7% to $4.2/mmBtu yesterday. Warmer weather forecasts across most of the U.S. weighed heavily on heating demand expectations, overpowering any potential support from a triple-digit storage withdrawal.

Base metals – Base metals strengthened on Thursday, with copper leading gains after surging more than 2% and briefly setting a record above $11,900/ton. The rally was driven by a softer dollar and renewed optimism following the U.S. Federal Reserve’s expected rate cut. Lower output from Chile’s Codelco added to copper’s bullish tone, reinforcing concerns over tightening supply. The Fed’s stronger US growth outlook and expectations for easing inflation improved the demand backdrop. Aluminium also posted firm gains as Japanese buyers faced sharply higher premium offers for Q1 shipments. Base metals may edge higher on the Fed’s dovish rate cut and a softer dollar, though gains could be capped as elevated copper prices continue to limit downstream demand.

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